Resilience Test Week: Market Seeks New Balance Amid Multiple Uncertainties
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Resilience Test Week: Market Seeks New Balance Amid Multiple Uncertainties
Recently, small-cap altcoins have seen significant gains. The market outlook for 2026 remains unclear, and it is not advisable to chase the highs.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.11 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.56% at $1.82 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $307.5 billion, having decreased by 0.25% over the past 7 days. Stablecoins have experienced weekly negative growth for two consecutive weeks, with USDT accounting for 60.8%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most rose while a few fell. Specifically: BTC gained 4.2% over 7 days, ETH gained 6.92%, SOL gained 7.93%, MYX gained 84.42%, and PEPE gained 54.1%.
This week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs were $458.7 million; net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs were $1.613 million.
Market Forecast (January 5 - January 9):
The current RSI index is 60.59 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 26 (higher than last week, generally in the fear range), and the Altcoin Season Index is 39 (neutral, higher than last week).
BTC Core Range: $87,000-93,000
ETH Core Range: $3,000-3,500
SOL Core Range: $129-150
This week marks the first week of 2026. Net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs directly boosted the crypto market cap. After gold and silver broke new highs, their prices experienced a correction. Amid capital overflow, crypto absorbed some liquidity. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range with an upward bias next week. Short-term traders can adopt a "buy low, sell high" strategy. Recently, small-cap altcoins have seen significant gains. Given the uncertain market outlook for 2026, chasing highs is not recommended.
Understanding the Present
Review of Major Events This Week
- On December 29, Lu Lei, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated in an article that the PBOC will issue the "Action Plan on Further Strengthening the Digital Yuan Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction." The new generation digital yuan measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will officially launch and be implemented on January 1, 2026.
- On December 29, Indian police in Hyderabad arrested a former Coinbase customer service employee suspected of involvement in the insider data breach disclosed by Coinbase in May this year. This is the first known arrest in the case, as confirmed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
- According to a report by LatePost, Meta acquired Butterfly Effect, the company developing the AI application Manus, for several billion dollars. This is Meta's third-largest acquisition since its founding, surpassed only by WhatsApp and ScaleAI. It is reported that before Meta's acquisition, Manus was raising a new funding round at a $2 billion valuation. "It happened so fast we even doubted if it was a fake offer," said Liu Yuan, Partner at ZhenFund and angel investor in Butterfly Effect. The acquisition negotiations were completed in an extremely short time, taking just over ten days.
- On December 30, Trust Wallet announced it would proactively compensate affected users. The total value of stolen assets was approximately $8.5 million.
- On December 31, boosted by Fed rate cuts and a significant surge in AI investment enthusiasm, global stock markets are on track for their biggest annual gain in six years in 2025. With just one trading day left in 2025, the MSCI World Index has risen 21% this year.
- On January 4, Tom Lee published an article supporting BitMine's increase in authorized share capital. BMNR closed up 14.88%.
- On January 3, after 14:00 Beijing time, a loud explosion was reported in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, with air raid sirens sounding. Power supply was interrupted in the southern part of the city near a large military base. Possibly affected by this event, the crypto market experienced a certain degree of pullback.
Macroeconomics
- On December 31, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, a new low since the week ending November 29, falling short of the market expectation of 220,000. The previous week's figure was revised from 214,000 to 215,000.
- On January 4, according to CME's "FedWatch Tool," the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in January is 16.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 83.4%.
ETF
According to statistics, during the period from December 29 to January 2, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs were $458.7 million. As of January 2, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen total outflows of $25.193 billion and currently holds $14.793 billion. IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.313 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $119.546 billion.
Net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs were $161.3 million.
Envisioning the Future
Project Updates
- The Daily Gwei, a video program focused on Ethereum, will resume weekly updates on January 5, 2026.
- The claim deadline for the Christmas commemorative "Soulbound" NFT from the social application Based is January 7, 2026.
- Web3 robotics company XMAQUINA will collaborate with Virtuals Protocol for a DEUS community sale on January 8. The auction starts at 20:00 on January 8, with an FDV of $60 million (DEUS price: $0.06). At TGE, 33% will be liquid, and 67% will vest linearly over 12 months. The public sale is open to all non-U.S. contributors. Eligible wallets can receive a 20% DEUS reward, including a Genesis OG reward for those who participated in any previous genesis auction. Contributing 10,000 USDC from the same wallet yields a 20% DEUS reward.
Important Events
- On January 7 at 21:15, the U.S. will release the December ADP Employment Change (in thousands).
- On January 8 at 21:30, the U.S. will release Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 (in thousands).
- On January 9 at 21:30, the U.S. will release the December Unemployment Rate.
Token Unlocks
- On January 6, 1.2 million tokens allocated to the team in Hyperliquid will unlock. Subsequent unlocks will occur on the 6th of each month.
- Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on January 7, valued at approximately $5.4 million, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating supply.
- Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on January 9, valued at approximately $6 million, accounting for 1.62% of the circulating supply.
- Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44 billion tokens on January 10, valued at approximately $10.18 million, accounting for 2% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. We dissect market trends for you through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports." With our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (dual-filtered by AI + experts), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face via livestreams, interpreting hot topics and forecasting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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