Feast and Concerns: Can Policy Support Sustain the Market Through Volatility?
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Feast and Concerns: Can Policy Support Sustain the Market Through Volatility?
Monitor market sentiment: current market sentiment is divided, with Bitcoin showing relative strength while altcoins experience greater volatility. Avoid blindly chasing gains, especially when the market is extremely greedy.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies stands at $3.75 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.1% ($2.21 trillion). Stablecoin market cap is $308.3 billion, up 0.39% over the past seven days. Stablecoin supply continues to grow, with USDT representing 59.27%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up while a few declined: H rose 222.27% over 7 days, VIRTUAL increased by 35.76%, AVNT by 51.05%, FF by 38.24%, and APE by 21.23%.
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $446.5 million; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $243.5 million.
Market Outlook (October 27 - October 31):
The current RSI index is 52.11 (neutral zone), Fear & Greed Index is 38 (up from last week, still in fear zone), and Altseason Index is 37 (unchanged from last week).
BTC core range: $104,000–116,000
ETH core range: $3,800–4,200
SOL core range: $175–210
This week, the U.S. reported September’s seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month at 0.2%, below expectations. Market panic has eased somewhat. The overall market is expected to rise steadily next week. Pay close attention to the Fed interest rate decision on October 30. Although the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has reached 99.6%, watch for potential "sell the news" reactions.
Investors should closely monitor key price levels: use the above support and resistance levels as critical references for decision-making. Look for buying opportunities near support levels and pay attention to profit protection near resistance zones.
Monitor market sentiment: current sentiment is divided, with Bitcoin showing relative strength while altcoins remain more volatile. Avoid blindly chasing price highs, especially when the market turns extremely greedy.
Understanding the Present
Recap of Weekly Major Events
1. On October 20, according to Coindesk, cryptocurrency exchange and wallet service provider Blockchain.com has recently held discussions about listing in the U.S. via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)—two sources said the platform has appointed Cohen & Company Capital to advise on a potential SPAC deal;
2. On October 23, Bloomberg cited sources reporting that prediction market platform Polymarket is in early talks with investors to raise funds at a valuation of $12–15 billion, more than ten times its valuation four months ago;
3. On October 23, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Trump granted a pardon to Binance founder CZ. CZ has been actively supporting the Trump family’s crypto ventures in recent months. Sources said the president signed the pardon order on Wednesday, and Trump recently told advisors he sympathizes with narratives of political persecution involving CZ and others;
4. On October 23, according to filings on the U.S. SEC website, Osprey filed an S-1 application for a Solana ETF with the SEC;
5. On October 25, Bitcoin rebounded past $110,000, currently trading at $111,121, up 0.61% over 24 hours;
6. Publicly traded firm MicroStrategy announced it purchased another 168 bitcoins this week for approximately $19 million in cash. As the "king of public company Bitcoin holdings," each of MicroStrategy’s purchases carries symbolic weight. However, compared to its historical purchases often amounting to tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, this latest acquisition is relatively small—suggesting even the most committed bulls may be exercising greater caution when deploying capital at current all-time highs.
Macroeconomic Developments
1. On October 24, U.S. seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month for September was 0.2%, below the expected 0.30% and prior 0.30%. The unadjusted year-on-year CPI for September came in at 3%, the highest since January 2025, slightly below the widely expected 3.1%;
2. On October 25, according to the Fed Funds Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is 99.6%.
ETFs
Data shows that between October 20 and October 24, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of $446.5 million. As of October 24, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $24.57 billion, currently holding $19.045 billion. IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $89 billion. Total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $150.255 billion.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had net outflows of $243.5 million.
Looking Ahead
Event Calendar
1. Blockchain Life 2025 will be held in Dubai, UAE on October 28–29, 2025;
2. Bitcoin MENA will take place at ADNEC, Abu Dhabi on December 8–9;
3. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11–13.
Project Updates
1. Vultisig will have its TGE on October 27;
2. Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for a final rehearsal on the Hoodi testnet on October 28;
3. ZEROBASE’s first-season token airdrop claim deadline is December 31.
Key Events
1. Mt.Gox three-phase repayment deadline ends on October 31;
2. On October 29 at 8:30 AM, Australia will release Q3 CPI year-on-year;
3. On October 29 at 9:45 PM, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report;
4. On October 30 at 2:00 AM, the U.S. will release the upper bound of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision for the week ending October 29;
5. On October 30 at 9:15 PM, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.
Token Unlocks
1. Sign (SIGN) will unlock 290 million tokens on October 28, worth approximately $11.81 million, representing 21.48% of circulating supply;
2. Grass (GRASS) will unlock 181 million tokens on October 28, worth approximately $78.81 million, representing 72.4% of circulating supply;
3. Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on October 28, worth approximately $21.25 million, representing 1.72% of circulating supply;
4. Zora (ZORA) will unlock 166 million tokens on October 30, worth approximately $15.23 million, representing 4.55% of circulating supply;
5. Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on October 31, worth approximately $13.91 million, representing 1.71% of circulating supply.
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