ETH Will 100x BTC: A Rebuttal
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ETH Will 100x BTC: A Rebuttal
Why is Ethereum hard to surpass Bitcoin?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompilation: Liu Jiaolian
Recently, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Capital mentioned in a livestream that BMNR has built the world's largest reserve exceeding 800,000 ETH, and believes today's ETH is like BTC in 2017 (rising from under $1,000 to over $114,000 today), with ETH set to surpass BTC by a hundredfold.
In response, netizen @BastienSinclair posted a rebuttal. He argues that based on network dynamics laws and consensus realities, ETH (Ethereum) will never "flip" BTC. There are seven points:
First, BTC is the only trustless base layer.
1.1 BTC is the world's only truly decentralized, immutable, and censorship-resistant monetary network.
1.2 Proof-of-Work (PoW) enforces thermodynamic costs and real-world anchoring.
Second, BTC operates at approximately 1 zettahash per second in PoW computational power. (Jiaolian note: 1 zettahash per second equals 1,000 exahashes per second, approximately 10^21 H/s)
2.1 ETH abandoned PoW and shifted to PoS — BTC currently runs on approximately 1 zettahash per second of raw computational power.
2.2 Security backed by energy cannot be forged and remains independent of politics.
Third, Proof-of-Stake (PoS) is inherently artificial governance.
3.1 PoS belongs to a political mechanism, not a security model.
3.2 Large token holders dominate consensus — whoever holds the most ETH holds the话语权.
3.3 Zero external cost = zero cost for malicious acts = forced return to reliance on trust.
Fourth, ETH has repeatedly changed its rules.
4.1 DAO rescue event (2016): rewriting the historical ledger.
4.2 The Merge upgrade (2022): overturning the consensus mechanism.
4.3 Future uncertainties? Everything is changeable.
4.4 BTC rules are rock-solid — consensus (consensus) ≠ governance (governance).
Fifth, winner-takes-all: network effects have already been decided.
5.1 BTC is money; Ethereum is a technology stack.
5.2 Monetary networks are zero-sum and reflexive — the optimal store-of-value asset will consume others.
5.3 BTC has already won under the Lindy Effect. (Jiaolian note: The Lindy Effect refers to the idea that the longer something has existed, the greater its probability of continuing to exist — such as time-honored brands, classic theories, or long-standing entities like BTC, whose longevity increases their likelihood of persisting indefinitely.)
Sixth, monetary premium is indivisible.
6.1 The core value of BTC lies in absolute scarcity and trustless final settlement.
6.2 Ethereum's competitors include Solana, Avalanche, and more than twenty other public chains.
6.3 BTC's competitor is fiat currency itself.
Seventh, BTC is resistant to capture.
7.1 Proof-of-Work (PoW) achieves physical-layer defense through energy consumption, geographical distribution, and hardware diversity.
7.2 Proof-of-Stake (PoS) chains may be controlled by regulators or whales.
7.3 Who would you trust to provide the monetary base layer: miners or stakers?
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