Fair valuation at $700 million? Buying in PUMP public sale means instant profit?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Fair valuation at $700 million? Buying in PUMP public sale means instant profit?
Messari's latest research report values PUMP at $7 billion.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Sunny Shi, Messari Crypto
Translation: Alex Liu, Foresight News
According to multiple media reports citing sources familiar with the matter, pump.fun is preparing to raise $1 billion by selling 25% of its PUMP tokens at a $4 billion valuation.
Is this price attractive?
Sunny Shi from Messari has built a valuation model for PUMP, indicating that its FDV (fully diluted valuation) could reach $7 billion. If this forecast proves accurate, buying PUMP tokens would be an immediate gain—but there's one crucial caveat. Below is their valuation process (from Sunny Shi’s perspective, where “we” refers to Messari):
No matter your view on memecoins, this sector continues to print money.
Although trading volume on the pump.fun token launch platform has declined from its peak earlier this year, it remains significantly higher than most of 2024’s levels.
Pump.fun’s trading volume remains above most of 2024’s levels. Data: Messari
The success of PumpSwap may also be underestimated. The DEX launched roughly three months ago and has already made significant inroads into Raydium’s market share on Solana.
Market share comparison between PumpSwap and Raydium. Data: Messari
Our valuation approach uses a top-down model, making assumptions around overall crypto market trading volume, Solana’s share, launch platform distribution, and PumpSwap’s market share. These detailed assumptions and models are available exclusively to enterprise clients, but I’ll share the key conclusions.
In our base case scenario, we believe memecoins will occupy a distinct niche within the broader crypto economy, as they are better suited for speculation than NFTs.
Certainly, as the Solana ecosystem matures, it will likely diversify into new asset classes—but this doesn’t negate the point.
We estimate that even if pump.fun captures a slightly smaller share within the Solana ecosystem, continued growth of PumpSwap means the project could generate approximately $675 million in revenue over the next two years.
Applying a 10x valuation multiple, this implies an FDV of around $7 billion.
However, the critical caveat is this: if the team opts for an opaque token/equity structure that channels most of the revenue to insiders rather than token holders, then we believe the market—now far more cautious—will not overlook such poor value accrual.
In our full report, we provide a valuation table to assess PUMP’s potential value based on the percentage of revenue accruing to token holders.
Regardless of how the market ultimately judges it, this remains a rare opportunity to participate in one of the most profitable crypto applications in history. Now it all hinges on whether the team offers token holders sufficient buy-in value to make this a worthwhile investment.
Editor’s Note:
On Aevo’s pre-market perpetual futures market, PUMP is currently priced at $6, implying a $6 billion FDV (fully diluted valuation).
PUMP pre-market price on Aevo
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
Messari
