HTX DeepThink: With the liquidity window appearing and Bitcoin back above $100,000, what's next for Bitcoin?
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HTX DeepThink: With the liquidity window appearing and Bitcoin back above $100,000, what's next for Bitcoin?
How long can this wave of upward momentum last? What are the implications of the latest tariff agreement reached between the U.S. and the U.K.?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
HTX DeepThink is HTX's dedicated column for insights into the crypto market, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and key developments in the cryptocurrency industry. It aims to inject fresh thinking into the market and help readers “find order in chaos” amid the ever-changing world of crypto.
In last week’s HTX DeepThink column, HTX Research's Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) combined macro data to predict a liquidity window in early May that could bring capital back into the crypto market. On the evening of May 8, Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000 for the first time in three months, while Ethereum also broke above the $2,000 mark—validating the analyst’s forecast. How long can this upward momentum last? What does the latest U.S.-U.K. tariff agreement signify? In this special additional edition of HTX DeepThink, Chloe offers new insights.
The symbolic significance of New Hampshire and Texas advancing legislation for a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve"
On May 7, New Hampshire officially became the first U.S. state to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, authorizing the state treasury to purchase BTC through spot ETFs or direct market acquisition. Texas's SB 21 bill has completed all committee reviews and is expected to go to final vote within the next three weeks. This signifies that Bitcoin is formally entering the framework of “sovereign-class assets,” partially replacing Treasuries and gold; simultaneously, a BTC procurement mechanism led by local governments may be replicated across 10–15 Republican-led states, providing medium- to long-term buying support for both spot ETFs and on-chain markets.
This sends an extremely important signal to the market—even if the federal government remains观望, state-level institutionalization of BTC reserves has already begun.
The U.S.-U.K. tariff agreement signals “de-risking”
On May 8, the U.S. and U.K. reached a breakthrough trade agreement, including the U.K. opening its agricultural tariffs to the U.S., in exchange for reduced U.S. auto tariffs; U.K. steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. will now face 0% tariffs; the U.S. will retain a 10% “reciprocal tariff” framework on imports from the U.K., although the U.K. already runs a goods trade deficit with the U.S. The actual economic impact of the deal is limited, but it opens up policy flexibility. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated he hopes the next trade agreement announcement will come from a major Asian country, indicating that the Trump administration is willing to release structural tailwinds in trade.
Bitcoin’s market pricing structure is transitioning from “volatility trading logic” to “structural capital allocation logic”
As policy-side easing signals gradually emerge, Bitcoin’s capital flow structure is undergoing profound changes. Over the past three weeks, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $5.3 billion, marking a quarterly record since launch. These inflows are not driven by retail investors, but primarily by institutional moves such as Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund increasing exposure, the Swiss National Bank boosting holdings in MicroStrategy stock, and rising positions in BlackRock’s ETF. This marks a shift in Bitcoin’s market pricing structure—from “volatility trading logic” toward “structural capital allocation logic.” During this transition, BTC is no longer merely a satellite risk asset, but is building its own independent capital ecosystem, emerging as a “supranational asset” situated between gold and U.S. Treasuries in the eyes of some investors.
Currently, there are no signs of “mania-driven rallies”: Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains stable between 50% and 55%, far below the 80%+ levels common at previous bull market peaks; CME Bitcoin futures open interest stands at approximately $14.8 billion, below the $20 billion peak seen after Trump’s 2020 election win; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has repeatedly failed to break above 4.60%, currently holding around 4.40%. Taken together, as long as the 10-year yield does not re-cross above 4.8% and ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin could consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range, awaiting the next breakout catalyst.
Potential risks: U.S.-China and EU-U.S. trade talks could escalate into tariff wars
However, risks remain regarding potential breakdowns in U.S.-China and EU-U.S. trade negotiations. President Trump has clearly stated he will not lower the 145% tariffs on China just to restart trade talks. Additionally, European Commission Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Šefčovič said that if EU-U.S. tariff negotiations fail, the EU will prepare retaliatory measures to rebalance bilateral trade. The EU has already prepared to impose tariffs on around €100 billion worth of U.S. goods. Any escalation in these trade tensions could negatively affect global market sentiment and put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
"HTX DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos"
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding investment products.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across a broad range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and provides professional assessments. Committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight, HTX Research plays a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research consistently stays at the forefront of innovation, leading thought leadership and fostering deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics.
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