February ushers in a quiet period for crypto news—what's next for Trump's "crypto utopia"?
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February ushers in a quiet period for crypto news—what's next for Trump's "crypto utopia"?
From campaign to being shot to winning the election: the biggest benefits and expectations have already been priced in.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Meta Era
With Donald Trump officially inaugurated as U.S. President on January 20, 2025, this definitive signal suggests a series of upcoming reforms—particularly targeting the emerging cryptocurrency industry. After Bitcoin broke past $100,000 to reach a new all-time high, the crypto sector appears to have entered a swamp, with Bitcoin fluctuating around the $100,000 mark. Coupled with an extended period of minimal crypto-related news expected in February, market participants should approach future trends with caution.
From Campaigning to Being Shot to Winning: The Biggest Bullish Catalysts Were Priced In Early!
Looking back at Trump’s journey from campaign to victory, he unveiled ten new cryptocurrency policies at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, mostly framed as “If I win, I will XXXX.” Let’s revisit them:
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Make the United States the global hub for cryptocurrency
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Halt crackdowns on the crypto industry within one hour of taking office
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Prevent further development of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC)
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Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve
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Fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler
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Stop the U.S. government from selling its seized Bitcoin
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Explore using cryptocurrencies to address the national debt
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Introduce comprehensive crypto legislation
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Create a cryptocurrency advisory committee
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Compassionately reconsider the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, founder of Silk Road
The pledge to “make the U.S. the global crypto capital” especially brought the crypto community into the spotlight, helping attract voter support from those active in cryptocurrency trading. These bold statements injected strong optimism into the market. However, with the inauguration now complete and no immediate actions taken to fulfill these promises, some investors have adopted a wait-and-see stance.
Just days ago, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, initially advertised as an economic development announcement revealing Damac Properties’ plan to invest $20 billion in data centers across the U.S. Yet during the event, Trump introduced four controversial geopolitical topics: increasing NATO defense spending, making Canada the 51st U.S. state, maintaining military control over the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America."
This overt tone of territorial ambition instantly heightened international tensions, fueling geopolitical anxiety that indirectly triggered turmoil in the crypto markets. According to Coinglass data from January 7, the total liquidation in crypto derivatives markets reached $346 million in 24 hours, including $282 million in long positions and $63.47 million in shorts. Bitcoin saw $69.59 million in liquidations, while Ethereum suffered $59.69 million.
From his “Fight!” speech after surviving an assassination attempt, to pro-crypto remarks at the Bitcoin Conference, to ultimately winning the presidency, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the crypto industry—and in return, received significant support and funding from it. But now that he has officially taken office, the sector may be entering a phase where “when the real利好 (bullish catalyst) arrives, it turns bearish.”
February: Calm Before the Storm – A Market in Limbo
Let’s examine the Federal Reserve’s 2025 meeting schedule:
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1st Meeting: January 28–29, 2025 – Interest Rate Decision
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2nd Meeting: March 18–19, 2025 – Interest Rate Decision + Economic Projections
Analysts at StarEx Exchange note that stronger-than-expected economic data have dampened market hopes for rapid rate cuts by the Fed. Previously, the consensus expected two rate cuts in 2025, but recent data have swiftly downgraded those expectations. Some analysts now believe the Fed may not cut rates at all this year—or if it does, the move will be minimal. Aditya Bhave, U.S. economist at Bank of America, stated in a report to clients on Wednesday, “Growing signs point to rising inflation,” and given the timing of the presidential transition, the Fed may have already delivered its final rate cut of this cycle.
Taking this into account, along with the recent sharp pullback in U.S. equities adding uncertainty, the January meeting is very likely to result in a hold—no rate cut. This means few near-term tailwinds for the market.
Additionally, reviewing major Web3 calendars, February appears eerily quiet for the crypto industry—with no major events or announcements on the horizon. The month is set to enter a news vacuum. Crypto markets are likely to trade sideways with low volume and reduced volatility. Prices will likely oscillate within a narrow range, showing neither clear upward nor downward momentum. Trading activity will decline, overall market engagement will drop, and price swings will shrink.
Crypto Trendsetter Musk: X Won’t Adopt Cryptocurrency Payments Anytime Soon
Elon Musk recently commented during an X Live (Stream) test about X’s payment system: “We don’t have plans to use cryptocurrency in X Payments anytime soon. We need licenses. Right now, we’re focusing on fiat currency and making sure we can roll out X Payments effectively.”
This statement doesn’t necessarily mean Musk opposes crypto; rather, compliance concerns may be driving the decision. Fiat-based payments better align with current regulatory requirements and development goals. Still, the comment dealt a psychological blow to many crypto enthusiasts, sparking waves of fear and panic.
Moreover, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, wrote in his latest blog post titled *Sasa*: “In Q1 2025, the key question is whether dollar liquidity can offset the slow rollout of Trump’s policies. If liquidity remains ample, increasing risk exposure could be a safe bet.” This reflects the unpredictable nature of the first-quarter market landscape—where no clear bullish catalysts are visible, making cautious observation a prudent strategy.
Conclusion
Although Trump painted a hopeful vision for the crypto industry during his campaign—promising to transform the U.S. into the world’s leading crypto hub—his concrete actions since taking office remain unclear. With February ushering in a news drought for crypto, market participants must remain vigilant against potential policy uncertainties and geopolitical shocks. Whether Trump’s crypto utopia will ignite a new wave of enthusiasm, or whether his promised reforms will be swiftly implemented, remains to be seen. Either outcome could spark fresh bullish momentum, pushing Bitcoin toward even higher highs.
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