Today's second biggest winner: Musk
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Today's second biggest winner: Musk
As the "top contributor" to Trump's election victory, Musk's political capital will rapidly rise.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bu Shuqing, Wall Street Insights
The U.S. election has concluded, with former President Trump securing victory early. Yet the biggest winner in this White House race may not be Trump himself, but his key financial backer and trailblazer—Elon Musk.
On November 6 local time, Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst and self-proclaimed "diehard fan" of Musk, took to X (formerly Twitter) to express his bullish outlook on Tesla and Elon Musk:
Trump’s win will primarily benefit Tesla / Musk.
We believe a Trump victory is negative for the broader EV industry due to the likely elimination of EV tax credits and incentives, but positive for Tesla, which holds significant scale and pricing advantages.
A Trump win could lift Tesla’s stock by $40–50.
Tesla’s market cap has surged by $300 billion since its April lows. Additionally, since Musk publicly endorsed Trump on his social media platform X, Google search interest in Musk has doubled. Analysts expect this election cycle to boost Tesla’s vehicle sales, increase ad revenue for X, and strengthen government support for Musk’s SpaceX.
The benefits go beyond business. With Trump’s victory, Musk’s political capital will rise dramatically. In contrast, had Harris won, Musk might—as he once joked—have ended up behind bars.
Since July this year, Musk has formally aligned himself with Trump, essentially betting his entire fortune on a Trump win. Three months later, this high-stakes gamble has paid off handsomely.
To understand how Musk feels today, one need only look at his latest post:
The future will be amazing! (Musk also generously sent Trump a “rocket” boost on X)
Tesla’s Growth Potential Expands Further
Trump is expected to accelerate policies supporting autonomous driving technology upon taking office—a major tailwind for Tesla, whose Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is central to its long-term vision.
Additionally, Trump advocates for significantly higher tariffs, which could restrict the influx of low-cost foreign electric vehicles into the U.S., helping Tesla maintain its dominant position in the American market (where it holds over 50% share).
Notably, even if Harris had won, Tesla would still benefit under Democratic clean transportation initiatives.
Thus, no matter who wins, Tesla emerges as a winner.
Prior to Election Day, Ives rated Tesla as “Outperform” with a price target of $300—about 20% above its closing price on Tuesday.
According to Tipranks, Ives’ view is shared by 10 other analysts, while 16 recommend holding the stock and 8 suggest selling, resulting in an overall “Hold” consensus rating for Tesla.
One Step Closer to Mars
In the space sector, a Trump victory also brings substantial benefits for Musk.
Musk has stated that under Democratic leadership, SpaceX’s ambition to reach Mars would face greater obstacles, whereas Republican leadership could mean stronger governmental support for such missions.
Regardless of the election outcome, NASA and SpaceX remain closely linked.
Federal records show that since 2019, NASA has awarded SpaceX contracts worth nearly $10 billion. However, if Harris had taken office, she might have been less inclined to approve large-scale funding for SpaceX.
Political Capital Soars—Is Musk Eyeing Public Office?
If Trump appoints Musk to a senior government role, the tech billionaire could transition from corporate titan to political heavyweight.
Trump previously suggested that, upon returning to the White House, he would task Musk with leading a Department of Government Efficiency. Musk responded by claiming he could identify $2 trillion in potential federal budget cuts—fundamentally reshaping government spending.
After the election results were announced, Musk posted a meme on X showing himself holding a sink in the Oval Office, captioned “Let it sink,” clearly playing on the double meaning of “sink” as both plumbing fixture and economic decline. This echoes 2022, when Musk famously carried a sink into Twitter’s headquarters after acquiring the company, symbolizing cost-cutting measures.
However, taking a government role would likely require Musk to distance himself from Tesla and SpaceX. Without Musk at the helm, Tesla’s value could sharply decline. More than its auto business, Tesla’s stock relies heavily on Musk’s visionary promises. Moreover, unlike a free-wheeling CEO, a public official must navigate congressional bureaucracy—an exhausting task even for someone as energetic as Musk.
History offers caution. The President’s Strategic and Policy Forum under Trump lasted only six months. Established in late 2016 and led by Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, Musk was among its members.
Even if Musk declines a formal government position, his status as Trump’s top ally in securing victory will elevate his political influence rapidly.
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