Legendary trader GCR's Trump trade: Did he foresee the future three years in advance?
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Legendary trader GCR's Trump trade: Did he foresee the future three years in advance?
GCR returns after six months, reviewing its three-year, sevenfold bet on Trump, with "exited positions" sparking panic selling among whales.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Alex Liu, Foresight News
Legendary trader GCR last appeared on social media on April 14 this year, when the market suffered a sharp drop. He posted a bullish outlook for future prices—and the market nearly bottomed out at almost the exact same time. This might have been just a coincidence, but it also highlighted his immense personal influence.
Fast forward to the eve of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and GCR has finally broken his silence—but this time not about crypto: "The outcome of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a margin of just 537 votes (48.847% vs. 48.838%). Although it's unlikely 2024 will be that close, I still encourage everyone to go vote tomorrow (whether you're voting Republican or Democrat)."
In the comments, one user wrote: "Not joking—my entire net worth is long on Trump winning based on GCR’s prophecy. If I get liquidated, I’ll DM you demanding a refund."
The election result has long become a tradable asset. Which side is GCR betting on? And what exactly is the "prophecy" referenced by this commenter?
It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR under the account @GiganticRebirth had already posted:
"One of my most confident trades: TRUMP2024
FTX has severe liquidity issues, so we’ve been accumulating positions via Alameda OTC and other sources since around 0.10 / 10c (10 cents per share, with each share worth $1 if he wins)
The biggest risk in this trade is myocardial infarction (heart attack); otherwise, it's destined to rise to $0.65"
Then on July 4, 2022, he posted again directly:
In hindsight, this series of moves seems like playing with cheat codes—foreseeing the future three years in advance. (Probably he reads Foresight News too.)
Trump secured the Republican nomination while DeSantis faded to zero. In prediction markets, Trump’s odds peaked at 0.7—just above GCR’s predicted $0.65—delivering a 7x return. How was this achieved?
On Polymarket, Trump’s peak probability of winning reached 71.5%
GCR responded yesterday to the comment mentioned earlier, reviewing this trade in detail, and stated clearly that he has “taken profits.”
Full response below:
"I've seen this kind of sentiment many times before; as always, I recommend avoiding leverage and reckless gambling.
As traders, our job is to assess probabilities and identify the largest discrepancies between market expectations and accurate pricing.
In 2021, I held two convictions strongly:
(1) DeSantis would not secure the Republican nomination because front-runners are paper tigers, and Trump's likelihood of becoming the true Republican nominee exceeded 95%.
(2) Prediction markets would exhibit a right-wing bias (as I observed in 2020 with Trump's odds); therefore, the implied probability of whoever eventually securing the Republican nomination would price up to 65 cents (refer to my pinned tweet from 2021 establishing 0.65 as the target).
Thus, buying unlimited amounts of Trump shares below 10 cents was value-maximizing, because I knew that if my bearish thesis on DeSantis proved correct, the odds would rise above 65% (along with other proxy bets tied to undervalued Trump odds).
Both predictions came true (Trump won the Republican nomination, and his share price rose to 65 cents). I’m satisfied—I captured the core of this move and took profits from both my position and related proxy bets, as most of the delta between expectation and reality has now materialized.
Now we wait and see whether there will be a fair election."
Just how influential is GCR? A whale who withdrew $500,000 from Binance only 20 hours ago to continue betting on a Trump victory began selling off their position within one minute of GCR’s post stating he had “taken profits” and questioned whether the election would be fair, and completely liquidated their entire over-$3 million long position on Trump within an hour.
Is GCR implying that Trump will win—provided the election is fair? Will his bet be accurate once again? We hope for a positive answer, especially since he also said ETH will eventually reach $10,000.
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