Macro Research: US Tech Stocks Unexpectedly Weak, Bitcoin Moves on Independent Trajectory
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Macro Research: US Tech Stocks Unexpectedly Weak, Bitcoin Moves on Independent Trajectory
The launch of spot Ethereum ETFs has finally materialized, but inflows failed to counterbalance Grayscale's selling pressure, triggering a brief panic sell-off in Ethereum price, with some altcoins starting to experience downward pressure.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsOver the past week, after a strong rally, markets retreated under the influence of U.S. equities. Has this rebound run its course? Although calls for U.S. rate cuts have been growing louder recently, U.S. stocks appear to be reacting faster. A former New York Fed president shifted from a hawkish stance, suggesting that rate cuts should begin immediately. The long-awaited spot Ethereum ETF has finally launched, but inflows failed to offset Grayscale's selling pressure, causing a brief panic-driven sell-off in Ethereum’s price and increasing pressure on some altcoins. However, supported by positive sentiment from the Bitcoin conference, Bitcoin continues to rise. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in weak consolidation.
Macro Environment
1) Weakness in U.S. Tech, Indicators Signal Concerns
Google and Tesla’s earnings reports yesterday missed Wall Street’s high expectations. Investors may also be questioning their outlook on artificial intelligence—whether massive investments will yield the returns they anticipate. There is also growing concern that without prompt rate cuts, the U.S. economy could slide into an irreversible deep recession.
Figure 1: Gold-to-Copper Ratio
Source: MacroMicro
This month, the “copper-gold ratio” (blue line in chart) dropped over 8%, a signal widely interpreted by the market as a warning sign for risk assets. The relative decline in copper prices raises concerns about whether risk assets can sustain further strength.
2) Market Conditions and Future Trends
Markets have weakened recently due to impacts from U.S. equities and the launch of Ethereum ETFs. Bitcoin (BTC) price momentum has faded, dragging down the broader altcoin market. Short-term market sentiment remains elevated, making the outlook for the coming week uncertain at best.
Figure 2: Fear & Greed Index
Source: Coinglass
After the much-anticipated Ethereum ETF launch, Bitcoin shows signs of topping out. Despite approval, Grayscale’s substantial short-term selling pressure, combined with profit-taking, created significant downward pressure. Additionally, after a strong rally, investors are beginning to question AI’s actual contribution to corporate profits—a concern that could push U.S. equities into bear territory. Currently, the VIX index continues to weaken, warranting close monitoring for any shift toward deteriorating market sentiment.
Figure 3: Volatility Index
Source: CBOE Official Website
Promising Sectors
1) TON Ecosystem
Strong Fundamentals
In a crypto market where first-layer narratives have grown stale, TON stands out as one of the few blockchains sustaining FOMO for months. With labels like a 900-million-user social platform, GameFi apps attracting tens of millions of users, Notcoin’s multi-bagger returns, a vast untapped user base, and the most developer-friendly mini-app migration platform, TON has captured attention. Its on-chain games feature simple mechanics, effective economic models, and high viral efficiency. Recently, Binance Labs announced investment in Pluto Studio, Catizen’s publishing platform, highlighting continued interest in TON’s mini-game ecosystem.
1. Notcoin (NOT):
Notcoin began as an experimental project on Telegram, using gamified mining through virtual coin interactions to attract users, aiming to provide beginners with an accessible entry point into cryptocurrency. It entered internal testing in November 2023, gaining over 650,000 followers. On January 1, 2024, it officially launched, attracting more than 5 million players within the first week.
2. Catizen (CATI):
Catizen is a popular Telegram game where players act as mayors of a virtual cat city, building and developing their cities. It blends urban development with crypto economics through a "play-to-earn" model, allowing players to earn tokens by progressing and completing tasks. Daily missions and rewards enhance engagement, while different cat avatars offer unique experiences.
3. Hamster Kombat (HMSTR):
Hamster Kombat is a new hit game on Telegram where players take on the role of a hamster CEO of a fictional crypto exchange. By investing in markets, acquiring licenses, hiring talent, and launching new products, players aim to grow their startup into an industry leader. The game combines fun and strategy effectively.
2) Solana Sector
Hot Topic: SOL Spot ETF
Following the launch of Ethereum ETFs, market speculation has turned to the next likely approved ETF asset—with Solana currently seen as the frontrunner. Meanwhile, tokens within the Solana ecosystem have shown relative strength recently.
Over the past 30 days, decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume on the Solana blockchain surpassed Ethereum mainnet for the first time, making Solana the most actively used chain by this metric. With rising on-chain activity, Solana’s DeFi infrastructure sector has seen valuation recovery, and market participants are increasingly upgrading their outlook for this segment.
Specific token list:
1. PYTH (Pyth Network): PYTH is a real-time blockchain market data protocol, similar to Chainlink on Ethereum. It aims to deliver high-quality, real-time price feeds for DeFi and other applications. PYTH has been rapidly expanding its reach and has recently launched on Starknet’s mainnet.
2. JUP (Jupiter): JUP is a liquidity aggregator that helps users find optimal liquidity pools on Solana, improving trading efficiency. JUP has performed exceptionally well recently, reaching new all-time highs.
User Attention
1) Twitter’s Trending Tokens
$KAMALA
On the afternoon of July 21, U.S. President Joe Biden announced on social media X that he would withdraw from the upcoming presidential election and step down. In another post, Biden stated: “I fully endorse and support Kamala as the party’s candidate in this year’s election.” He further urged: “Democrats, now is the time to unite and defeat Trump.” Approximately half an hour after Biden’s announcement, Kamala Harris received his endorsement and immediately began sending fundraising emails. Kamala Harris said she intends to “win” the nomination and “do everything in my power…to unite our country and defeat Donald Trump.”
$Solend
Solana-based lending protocol Solend announced it will rebrand as Save (Solana’s permissionless savings account). Beyond the rebrand, Solend unveiled three new products: the decentralized stablecoin SUSD, the liquid staking token for SOL called saveSOL, and dumpy.fun, a meme coin shorting platform.
2) Popular DApps
Figure 4: Top 10 Trending DApps
Sol Dust Vacuum
Sol Dust Vacuum is a project independently developed by full-stack blockchain developer Alexandre Neto. He encountered a common issue in the Solana ecosystem—accumulating numerous worthless tokens, creating large amounts of “dust” in his wallet. These dust tokens have negligible value but still incur rent fees. To solve this, Alexandre created Sol Dust Vacuum to help users close inactive accounts and reclaim associated rents.
Summary
Over the past week, markets pulled back after a strong rally, influenced by weakness in U.S. equities. Whether this marks the end of the rebound remains unclear. The launch of spot Ethereum ETFs failed to counteract Grayscale’s selling pressure, triggering a brief price selloff and increasing pressure on some altcoins. Disappointing tech earnings have raised questions about AI investment returns and fears of a potential deep U.S. recession. The sharp drop in the gold-copper ratio serves as a warning signal for risk assets.
Short-term market sentiment remains elevated, and the outlook for the coming week appears cautious. The TON and Solana ecosystems stand out as notable performers, warranting attention. However, investors should closely monitor shifts in market sentiment and the trajectory of the volatility index.
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