Germany Ends Sell-Off as Market Recovers; Could Trump Assassination Attempt Trigger Dramatic Shift?
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Germany Ends Sell-Off as Market Recovers; Could Trump Assassination Attempt Trigger Dramatic Shift?
On July 5, when the Bitcoin price retreated to $54,200, whale addresses accumulated 71,000 bitcoins, worth approximately $4.3 billion.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Bitcoin prices rose steadily today, briefly surpassing $63,000, while ETH also broke above $3,300. Altcoins followed the broader market upward, with short liquidations reaching $90 million over the past 24 hours.
A major bearish overhang has finally been lifted from the market: on July 13, blockchain data showed that the German government’s sales from its seized Bitcoin addresses may have concluded, bringing an end to large-scale disposals that began in mid-June. Recall that the selling pressure from these 50,000 BTC caused Bitcoin to plunge from $65,000 to as low as around $53,500, triggering widespread panic, a yearly low in market sentiment, and dragging down the entire altcoin market.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who narrowly survived an assassination attempt, became globally famous for his raised-fist photo after the incident. Following the event, prediction markets such as Polymarket saw Trump's odds of winning the presidency surge to 71%, a recent high, far exceeding incumbent President Biden’s 18%. Given Trump’s series of pro-crypto statements during this election cycle, his potential victory would likely be a significant positive catalyst for the cryptocurrency market.
Last month, Trump met with representatives from the Bitcoin mining industry, stating he loves and understands cryptocurrencies and will advocate for Bitcoin miners at the White House. He even posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, saying Bitcoin mining might be “our last line of defense” against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), adding, “We want all remaining Bitcoin made in the USA.” Additionally, Jacob Helberg, advisor at Palantir Technologies, told Reuters that Trump explicitly stated the crypto crackdown led by Biden and Gensler would stop within one hour of his second administration taking office.
Notably, Trump is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Tennessee on July 27. If his chances of winning continue to rise, the crypto market could see a "price-in" rally ahead of time, reflecting this potential bullish catalyst.
There has been no movement yet regarding Mt. Gox compensation distributions. After months of market gloom driven by persistent negative sentiment, selling pressure has weakened, while Bitcoin spot ETF data has shown strong performance. Since July 5, ETF flows have turned net positive, with a staggering total net inflow of $310 million recorded on July 12 alone. According to IntoTheBlock data, Bitcoin whale addresses accumulated 71,000 BTC—worth approximately $4.3 billion—when the price dipped to $54,200 on July 5.
Approval for a spot Ethereum ETF appears imminent. On the macro front, rate cut expectations have increased from one cut to two, possibly starting as early as September. With this series of upcoming tailwinds, let’s hear what industry experts think about where the market is headed next.
Collective Shift Founder: Bitcoin’s “local bottom” has formed; uptrend underway
Ben Simpson, founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift, said that Bitcoin has formed a local bottom and is now entering an upward trend. Bitcoin’s price was heavily impacted by forced selling, primarily from the German government’s sale of nearly $3 billion worth of BTC and negative sentiment surrounding the repayment to Mt. Gox creditors estimated at around $8.5 billion. The recent assassination attempt on former President Trump positively influenced his re-election odds and, combined with his pro-crypto stance, boosted market sentiment toward Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio: If Bitcoin closes above $60,000 on weekly, daily, and 4H charts, a move toward $63,000 is highly likely
Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a top trader on Binance Futures with cumulative futures profits exceeding $28.65 million, stated on social media that if Bitcoin closes above $60,000 on the weekly, daily, and 4-hour charts, a direct move toward $63,000 becomes highly probable. Conversely, if it fails to hold above that level, the upward momentum could stall, potentially making this the peak for a prolonged period (“retesting the range and failing”).
Trader T: Mt. Gox will be the next major seller, potentially creating $4.62 billion in selling pressure before November
Trader T posted on X predicting that after a week of strong selling by the German government, Mt. Gox will be the next major seller. Mt. Gox is required to repay 14,100 BTC, with at least 80% of repayments due before November and a payout discount rate of 89%. This means up to 100,392 BTC could be sold by Mt. Gox before November. However, given the fragmented ownership, large-scale liquidation is less likely. Under the worst predictable scenario, if Mt. Gox sells 80% of its Bitcoin holdings, it could generate up to $4.62 billion in selling pressure.
10x Research: Larger-scale selling expected in the coming weeks and months
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a report that concerns persist due to supply overhangs and weak underlying market fundamentals, posing risks for medium-term traders. Last week, Bitcoin appeared to rebound from oversold levels ahead of the CPI release, which was expected to show a decline. However, because this expectation was already widely priced in and Bitcoin had already risen, prices failed to sustain gains. This disinflationary trend may continue until October, when year-on-year comparisons become more challenging.
Although Bitcoin underwent a nearly 20% drawdown during the sale of $3 billion in BTC by authorities in Saxony, U.S., it has passed this stress test. Nevertheless, larger-scale selling is anticipated in the coming weeks and months, which could further impact the market.
JPMorgan: Crypto market expected to rebound in August
JPMorgan stated in its latest research report that the crypto market is expected to begin recovering in August. Bitcoin reserves on major exchanges have declined over the past month due to creditor liquidations from Mt. Gox and Gemini, as well as the German government’s sale of criminally seized crypto assets. As a result, the bank revised its year-to-date net flow estimate for the crypto market downward from $12 billion to $8 billion. The report notes that these liquidation activities are expected to conclude this month, with the market resuming recovery from August onward.
Matrixport: Spot Ethereum ETF approval seems imminent; this time the market may avoid a “sell the news” event
Matrixport analyzed that based on S-1 filings submitted to the SEC, approval for a spot Ethereum ETF appears imminent. Although Ethereum’s price pulled back following the May 20, 2023 rally—when the SEC asked exchanges to refile their 19b-4 forms—market positioning for ETH remains bullish. Futures traders are already pricing in approval of ETH ETFs. This time, the market may avoid a “sell the news” reaction.
CryptoQuant CEO: Expect a flat market over the next 2–3 months; remain long-term bullish but cautious
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, posted that miner capitulation is still ongoing. Historically, this process ends when the daily average mining revenue falls to 40% of the annual average, but currently it stands at 72%. He expects the crypto market to remain relatively flat over the next 2–3 months, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook while advising against excessive risk-taking.
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