The darkest hour before dawn—how much longer must we consolidate before seeing the light again?
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The darkest hour before dawn—how much longer must we consolidate before seeing the light again?
The darkness before dawn, the re-accumulation in the mid-cycle, and the emergence of a cyclical peak.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Crypto, Distilled
Compiled by: TechFlow
When will the consolidation end? Despite widespread pessimism and frustration, the price of $BTC is only down 15% from its all-time high. Prominent trader @BobLoukas brings hope:
"The darkest before dawn, mid-cycle re-accumulation, peak of the cycle ahead."
Here are his key points.
Monthly Chart:
We reached the previous cycle's all-time high in month 16, whereas prior cycles took over two years. We are currently in the third month of sideways consolidation.
Historically, $BTC pauses after hitting an all-time high, then later reaches a final cycle peak. Longer consolidation periods mean healthier, stronger rallies ahead.
Weekly Chart:
Currently, we’ve had 14 weeks of consolidation following ETF news, with prices down 12% from highs. This choppy action was expected after nearly doubling from recent lows in January 2024.
Notably, the 7-week cycle low in January was at $38,000 (price doubled from there).
Why hasn't the market moved higher?
Bob highlights several key factors:
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Whales from the last cycle selling near $60,000
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Concerns about a potential monthly double top
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GBTC outflows (selling pressure)
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Shift from on-chain holdings to ETF assets
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ETF expectations already priced in
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Q4 2023 rally driven by ETF speculation
When will the chop end?
Stay patient—up 3x since September 2023, a pullback is needed to build strength.
Similar to the post-doubling base formation in Q1 2023, broad accumulation preceded the Q4 surge.
Chop may continue into July or August to complete bottoming.
When might the market top?
Based on the 4-year cycle, a top may still be far off.
Past cycles typically take 33–35 months from bottom to top.
Following this pattern, October 2025 is possible (still 16–17 months away).
The large gap between the 10-month moving average and price suggests a pullback may be needed.
Why is everyone so angry?
Bob explains why this bull market feels tough for many:
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Chasing speculative altcoins (intense competition among investors).
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Waiting for 30–35% drops like in past cycles, missing opportunities and buying at peaks.
Possible Scenarios
We may soon see the next local bottom, possibly by month-end.
Bullish signs include higher lows, well above the January 2024 low, showing market strength.
After this local bottom, one scenario is a sweep of the low followed by reclaiming the highs.
A second possible scenario is continued choppy price action.
This phase could last until September, forming a local bottom without breaking the all-time high.
A third possibility is another 30% decline—a typical feature of past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but now with ETFs, which is a significant difference.
Some argue that with ETFs, it’s impossible to reach around $55,000 again. Bob strongly disagrees.
Convergence of Paths
All three scenarios converge around October, November, and December 2024, targeting a breakout above the all-time high and further upside. During this period, Bitcoin’s movement could significantly impact altcoin returns.
Sentiment Reset:
Bob sees the sentiment reset following April’s spike as positive. On-chain data shows coins shifting toward long-term holders. As new buyers accumulate at higher levels, a solid foundation forms. Dips could be buying opportunities.
Bob’s Buying Strategy
Bob’s last buy was near the cycle low around $17,000. Now, he’s watching for potential buying opportunities below $50,000 in $BTC. He advises those underweight to consider adding exposure during this consolidation phase.
Macro Top in 2025
Bob expects the second half of the cycle to be healthier. He believes the market peak will occur in the latter part of the current cycle.
However, timing may vary—possibly Q2 2024 (month 30) or earlier, less likely Q4 2025.
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@DistilledCrypto
