Is MeMe coin really devouring VC coins?
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Is MeMe coin really devouring VC coins?
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Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsIs MeMe coin really devouring VC coins?
No, it's merely an illusion created by the market's collective consciousness. This illusion is known in neural network learning as short-term memory overreliance, and it frequently occurs in market analysis as well.
This thread will use quantitative comparative analysis to examine the real relationship between MeMe coins and VC coins during the current bull cycle (from October 2023 to present), comparing their 7-day rolling volatility, correlation, and price seasonality factors.
To ensure consistency in comparison, we classify both MeMe coins and VC coins into three categories: classical blue-chip coins, emerging white-pawn coins, and newly listed star coins.
Classical MeMe Coin Leaders DOGE, SHIB vs Classical VC Coin Leaders AAVE, UNI, DOT, MKR
From the perspective of price seasonality factors, classical MeMe coin leaders show strong resonance with BTC’s seasonality, particularly exerting greater influence on prices at the beginning of each month. In contrast, classical VC coin leaders exhibit a certain time lag relative to BTC’s seasonality.
In terms of 7-day rolling volatility, UNI’s structure aligns consistently with SHIB’s, both showing two abnormal volatility peaks during this bull run.
SHIB’s two abnormal volatility peaks are nearly synchronized with BTC, and DOGE exhibits the same pattern. This indicates that the ability of classical MeMe coin leaders to hedge against declining BTC volatility is weakening.
The correlation matrix further confirms this shift in characteristics among classical MeMe coin leaders. During this bull cycle, SHIB’s correlation with BTC is 0.53, while DOGE’s is even higher at 0.72.
Summary: The "meme" attributes of classical MeMe coin leaders have significantly deteriorated; they now exist more as liquid blue-chip tokens rather than pure memes.
Emerging White-Pawn MeMe Coins PEPE, FLOKI vs Emerging White-Pawn VC Coins TIA, RNDR, Mobile
TIA shows stronger seasonality compared to PEPE and FLOKI—no wonder some market voices jokingly claim modular narratives were the biggest meme of this cycle.
In terms of 7-day rolling volatility, TIA stands out as the leader—not PEPE, who many assumed would be the most volatile among current MeMe coins.
Correlations are also intriguing: during this bull cycle, TIA and Mobile have almost zero correlation with BTC, whereas PEPE and FLOKI show correlations of 0.61 and 0.46 respectively.
Summary: Among emerging white-pawn coins, VC coins display secondary market behaviors more akin to MeMe coins.
Newly Listed Star MeMe Coins BOME, SLERF vs Newly Listed Star VC Coins ENA, Aevo
Since these are new listings, our analysis covers the period from March 1, 2024 to present.
During this period, BTC’s seasonality factor has had relatively weak influence. Aevo’s seasonality factor was predominantly negative, while SLERF showed a stronger seasonal impact.
Since April, both VC and MeMe newly listed star coins have exhibited a sharp decline in 7-day volatility.
Correlations remain surprising: BOME leads with a BTC correlation of 0.61.
Summary: Since April, VC coins have decoupled from BTC and shown low 7-day volatility, making it difficult for traders in the secondary market to profit—this is the primary source of FUD sentiment toward VC coins.
Conclusion
The secondary market price characteristics of VC coins and MeMe coins are not clearly distinct. They do not exist in a zero-sum opposition but instead frequently reverse roles depending on their lifecycle stage and market cycle. Since April, newly launched star VC coins have experienced reduced volatility and weakened correlation with BTC, making profitability difficult for secondary market traders—this explains the rise in FUD sentiment toward VC coins.
However, as rational investors, we must recognize that “MeMe new coins > VC new coins” is merely a cyclical phenomenon lasting only about two months so far. Don’t hastily conclude that only MeMe coins will thrive in the future, nor should you fill your investment portfolio entirely with MeMe coins. Overseas KOLs marketing off this meme-driven cycle are not trustworthy; Western celebrities launching coins during this hype wave will 100% rug pull. Remember: we’re here to invest, not to gamble.
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