Bitget Research: After the halving, miners' cost basis reaches $60,000; a drop below this level could present a rebound opportunity
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Bitget Research: After the halving, miners' cost basis reaches $60,000; a drop below this level could present a rebound opportunity
Yesterday, BTC briefly dropped below $63,000, currently trading around $62,500. The average power consumption of newly manufactured Bitcoin mining rigs is approximately 30W/T, with the shutdown price hovering around $60,000.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsOver the past 24 hours, several new trending cryptocurrencies and topics have emerged in the market, which could very well represent the next wealth-building opportunities.
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High-potential wealth-generating sectors: Ethena (ENA), cross-chain sector (W);
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User's most-searched tokens & topics: Debank, Lyra, Revolut;
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Potential airdrop opportunities: MEZO, DFLOW;
Data collection time: May 08, 2024, 4:00 (UTC+0)
I. Market Environment
Yesterday, BTC briefly dropped below $63,000, currently trading around $62,500. Market interest is scattered, with no significant wealth effect observed. The shutdown price for mainstream Bitcoin mining rigs is approximately $60,000, meaning BTC is likely to find strong support around this level. Daily ETH burn on the Ethereum network has declined to its lowest level of the year—only 610 ETH were burned the day before yesterday. This drop in ETH burn volume is primarily due to lower average gas fees recently. Generally, low gas fees indicate that ETH may be undervalued, suggesting potential upside in the future.
In the broader crypto market, last week saw the official launch of spot BTC ETFs in Hong Kong. To date, the total trading volume of the six initial virtual asset spot ETFs issued in Hong Kong has exceeded HK$60 million, with noticeable inflows from Asia-Pacific capital. Meanwhile, the U.S. SEC issued a Wells Notice to Robinhood regarding RHC’s cryptocurrency listing, custody, and platform operations, signaling tightening regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. After two consecutive days of net inflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $19 million yesterday, indicating ongoing caution in the overall market.
II. Wealth-Generating Sectors
1) Sector Movement: Ethena (ENA)
Main Reason: During a period of weak altcoin performance, Ethena generated protocol fees of $8.3 million over the past week, ranking first among stablecoin protocols—far surpassing MakerDAO in second place. USDe’s circulating market cap has rapidly reached the $2 billion mark, drawing notable community attention.
Price Performance: ENA has steadily risen since its TGE a few days ago, starting at an opening price of approximately $0.60. Despite recent market pullbacks, it has shown clear resilience, currently hovering around $0.95.
Factors Influencing Future Outlook:
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Growth of USDe circulation: With a current market cap of $2 billion, USDe ranks fourth among stablecoins. If its circulation continues to grow and potentially overtakes DAI (currently third), the price potential for ENA would significantly expand.
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Yield expectations from Ethena activities and strength of external partnerships: Bybit’s decision to accept USDe as collateral for derivatives trading recently pushed ENA’s price up nearly 8%. Ethena’s tokenized yield strategy has attracted over $2 billion in deposits, with risk assessments conducted on its tokens. Additionally, Season Two of the Ethena campaign has launched, partnering with prominent projects like Zircuit to provide additional yield layers for USDe staking.
2) Sector Movement: Cross-Chain Sector (W)
Main Reason: As a leading interoperability platform, Wormhole supports large-scale multi-chain applications and bridging. Last week (April 29 – May 5), Wormhole rolled out multiple ecosystem updates, driving positive sentiment and rising prices amid high community engagement.
Price Performance: W rose 2.5% in the past hour and 5.2% over the past 7 days.
Factors Influencing Future Outlook:
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Roadmap progression toward becoming a native multi-chain token: Wormhole has completed Phase Two of its rollout plan. This phase introduces MultiGov, the first multi-chain governance system, along with W staking and governance. These features could absorb circulating tokens from the market. If staking adoption is strong, selling pressure may further decrease.
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Continual realization of positive developments: JitoSOL, Solana’s first liquid staking derivative, officially expanded to Arbitrum via Wormhole NTT, becoming a native ERC-20 token on Arbitrum. Wormhole also announced its ecosystem program comprising three parts: the Wormhole Accelerator, Cross-Chain Ecosystem Fund, and xGrant Program. Notably, Borderless Capital launched a $50 million cross-chain ecosystem fund to develop next-generation Web3 applications and is sponsoring an Algorand-themed hackathon (Algorand Hackathon 2024), where developers can build interoperability-focused apps to enhance blockchain communication and collaboration.
3) Sector to Watch: AI Sector
Main Reason: The AI sector remains highly active in the primary market. Decentralized computing platforms like io.net have launched points systems ahead of imminent token launches, attracting significant market attention. Investors should monitor io.net’s pre-launch valuation and related information. Additionally, rumors suggest OpenAI may unveil its ChatGPT search product on May 9, competing directly with Google, potentially bringing off-chain attention and capital into the crypto AI space.
Notable Tokens to Monitor:
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ARKM: Arkham is a blockchain analytics platform leveraging artificial intelligence to analyze blockchain and on-chain data;
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NEAR: Numerous AI projects within the NEAR ecosystem are currently fundraising, positioning NEAR as a potential future AI hub;
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RNDR: As foundational infrastructure in the AI space, RNDR not only participates in AI but also expands across multiple ecosystems including Solana. Furthermore, as Apple’s VR partner, RNDR holds immense market potential—developments around Apple’s upcoming VR devices are likely to generate market momentum.
III. User Search Trends
1) Popular Dapp
Lyra: Options protocol Lyra announced in a blog post that LDX is its new utility token. The first round of LDX airdrops will reward traders and liquidity providers through a points-based system, distributing LDX proportionally over four weeks. At least three rounds (12 weeks total) are planned. Users can earn points via trading, yield activities, and referrals. Snapshot periods have concluded; users can now assess participation based on LDX’s secondary market performance.
2) Twitter
Debank: Debank tweeted “Are you ready?” accompanied by a camera image, possibly hinting at an upcoming airdrop snapshot. Due to anticipated airdrops and unclear final distribution rules, community discussion热度 surged rapidly.
3) Google Search & Regional Trends
Global Overview:
Revolut: A UK-based digital bank with over 40 million customers worldwide, Revolut was among the first banks to launch a standalone platform for cryptocurrency trading. Its crypto trading platform, Revolut X, is now open to professional crypto traders. Coupled with its new product “Revolut Ramp,” developed in partnership with MetaMask to allow direct top-ups from Revolut accounts to MetaMask wallets, the service is forming a seamless CEFI + DEFI business loop. However, access remains limited as it is currently available only to professional traders.
Regional Search Trends:
Search trends varied significantly across regions yesterday, though Asia and CIS regions maintained strong interest in RWA-related queries.
In Western Europe and Africa, meme coin searches showed divergence: European users frequently searched dog-themed tokens like Floki and SHIB, while Pepe appeared repeatedly in search trends across African and Middle Eastern regions.
IV. Potential Airdrop Opportunities
MEZO
Mezo is a BTC Layer 2 project focused on the Bitcoin ecosystem, enabling BTC holders to perform on-chain transfers and financial management, thereby advancing BTC DeFi development. Mezo recently announced a $21 million funding round backed by top-tier firms including Pantera Capital, Hack VC, and Multicoin Capital.
The team has publicly disclosed its BTC asset staking program and introduced a referral mechanism, strongly indicating an upcoming airdrop. The project is currently in its early operational phase.
How to Participate: 1) Visit the project website and find an invite code in Discord; 2) Enter the invite code and connect your Unisat wallet; 3) Deposit BTC.
DFLOW
DFlow is a decentralized order flow marketplace designed to support order flows from various L1 chains and Rollups. It has raised $7.5 million from renowned investors including Framework, Coinbase, Wintermute, and Multicoin Capital.
The interaction process is simple: depositing assets on the Solana chain earns points, which are expected to serve as a key criterion for future airdrop eligibility. DFlow’s Season 0 has concluded, and Preseason 1 has now begun. The preseason serves as a warm-up ahead of DFlow’s mainnet launch in late May, when the DFlow application and protocol will become fully accessible.
How to Participate: Create an account on the DFLOW website, which generates an exportable private key Solana wallet address. Deposit at least $5 worth of supported tokens (SOL, jitoSOL, USDT, USDC, etc.) into this wallet. The system awards XP points based on deposit amount and duration. Additionally, inviting friends to deposit earns bonus points.
Original link: https://www.bitget.com/zh-CN/research/articles/12560603809293
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