Viewpoint: This bull market is different from previous ones, and expectations should be lowered
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Viewpoint: This bull market is different from previous ones, and expectations should be lowered
Your goal should be to capture 80% of the entire bull market.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Pentoshi, Crypto Analyst
Translation: Felix, PANews
How will this crypto bull market evolve in the future? Crypto analyst Pentoshi shared an analysis of the current market, arguing that while solid opportunities still exist, investors should set more realistic expectations.
Some thoughts and expectations. This cycle is likely to see the greatest decline in returns compared to all previous cycles. There are several reasons for this. The market floor has been set quite high across the board. In terms of market capitalization, each cycle’s bottom has been roughly 10 times higher than the previous cycle's low. It's worth noting that in prior cycles, Total 3 (the total market cap of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, as shown in the chart below) included only about 125 assets—not all available tokens.
When the author entered the crypto space in 2017, the market cap of altcoins was around $12–15 billion, eventually growing to over $1 trillion. Such explosive growth is not replicable today. Now there are far more altcoins, resulting in greater dilution. Back then, prices could rise easily because the market was still in its early stages. Only about 2% of Americans owned cryptocurrency at the time, compared to over 25% today (data from Coinbase).
This matters because early entrants were typically wealthier individuals. Adoption in developing countries (so-called "Bangladesh-level" adoption) isn't as impactful—it's impossible to scale capital increases proportionally with user growth. Growing the market further requires significantly more capital, and even more altcoins will emerge, expanding the market further. As a result, achieving outsized returns will be much harder going forward.
Just weeks ago, the daily token unlock amount—whether sold or not—peaked at $250 million. Assuming all were sold immediately, this would represent the inflow needed just to maintain price stability for 24 hours. Eventually, many of these tokens will be sold, but not today—most holdings are temporary. The author estimates that in this cycle, Total 3 may not exceed twice the peak reached during the 2021 bull run, reaching a maximum of approximately $2.2 trillion. But this doesn’t mean there are no opportunities now. Rather, it suggests the market is no longer in its early phase but has moved into a later stage. Expectations should be tempered. This cycle shouldn't be compared directly to past ones, given the significantly higher adoption and overall growth in the sector.
The author believes most people never truly learn. If you can't control your greed and overcome it, you're destined to lose your gains repeatedly. You'll always chase targets or try to recoup profits.
If you believe we’re already halfway through this cycle, you should withdraw your initial principal and accumulate some cash to invest in lower-risk assets. This strategy suits most people—but not everyone. Going "all in" at the final stage is unwise. Your goal should be to capture around 80% of the entire bull market move. Not everyone will survive until the end; statistically, only about 1% will come out on top, while most won't exit profitably. Gains are usually temporary—the system is largely designed for you to lose. If you’ve achieved life-changing returns or significant profits, lock them in. Once you hit key milestones, protect yourself, then restart with minimal funds.
It’s worth reflecting: where is the market now? How much growth has already occurred? And what does that imply for future growth and returns? In the author’s view, the era of easily achieving broad-based, outsized gains is over—but the future remains bright. Solid opportunities still exist today, but expectations need to be more realistic, so you aren’t caught off guard.
Many will sell you their dreams, because selling your own dream to others is easy.
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@Pentosh1
