A Brief Note After Returning from Hong Kong: VC, KOL, Meme, and Merlin
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A Brief Note After Returning from Hong Kong: VC, KOL, Meme, and Merlin
Summary of this conference attendance: three Ponzis.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: cryptoHowe.eth
As the first major domestic event I’ve attended this year—and the first time writing from a VC perspective—let me explain why I sum up my reflections with three “Ponzi” jokes. Also, a quick disclaimer: these are solely my personal views, not financial advice (NFA).
I. Industry Insights
1. VCs as trend indicators
Whenever I mention being a Researcher at a VC firm, people often ask: “Which sectors are you bullish on lately?” This reflects how highly VCs are regarded—as one benchmark for validating personal investment theses. It’s simple logic: where the hot money flows, so goes the mainstream market. Even with sector rotation, it's just capital moving in and out.
2. Bitcoin ecosystem remains chaotic
The Bitcoin ecosystem is undeniably hot right now, but I see its current state as akin to primordial chaos before creation.
First, most projects are still asset-focused protocols; real-world applications remain scarce. The conversations are all about narratives—nothing more.
Second, the BTC L2 narrative is marked by fierce competition among projects. There are two distinct approaches: some prioritize user growth before infrastructure, while others build infrastructure first. Think of it like tourism vs. city planning—one draws crowds early, the other prepares capacity ahead of demand. Who wins? That’s worth watching.
Third, Merlin Chain has gained significant influence in the BTC L2 space. After attracting massive traffic through aggressive growth tactics, the key question is what comes next: How will they retain liquidity and users? Will meaningful dApps emerge? The path Merlin chooses—and whether BTC L2s even have real demand—will offer valuable lessons.
3. DePIN and AI dominate discussions
Unlike the Bitcoin ecosystem, which feels largely confined to Chinese-speaking circles, DePIN and AI are global trends—both practical and easier to implement. DePIN tackles idle or underutilized resources; AI helps automate repetitive tasks and boost efficiency.
DePIN makes Web3 tangible by integrating physical devices, while AI naturally complements blockchain. Together, DePIN + AI becomes powerful: DePIN provides compute, data, and storage for AI; AI uses DePIN devices for model training, labeling, AI agents, etc.
4. KOL > VC or VC > KOL?
Lately, we’re hearing more about “KOL rounds”—sometimes even preferred over traditional VC funding due to lower valuations, shorter unlock periods, etc.
But remember: VC is ultimately a service industry focused on maximizing returns for LPs. The relationship between KOLs and VCs resembles that of guerrillas versus an organized army. A good VC develops a coherent investment thesis and executes follow-up strategies accordingly.
Moreover, successful investing hinges on post-investment support: guiding founders through pitfalls, timing market cycles, and strategically releasing updates. This isn’t just about writing checks or shilling tokens—it demands high-level expertise.
So, who holds more value? I think the answer is clear.
5. The market is currently meme-driven
Earlier, I joked that my takeaway was “Ponzi, Ponzi, Ponzi.” That’s mostly because the market feels deeply meme-driven—focused on hype and expectations rather than fundamentals.
Currently popular sectors include Bitcoin ecosystem, DePIN, and AI—but beneath the surface, most projects are still selling stories about future potential, with little real execution. Of course, this isn’t unique to these sectors.
For example: Why is Merlin Chain so hot? Is it wealth effects, actual ecosystem quality, or just strong BTC L2 narratives? In DePIN, how many real devices are connected? How much compute is actually used? Is anyone really relying on this? For AI models, how many are live? Are they essential or just nice-to-have?
These are normal phases. Ecosystem development takes time—you can’t expect maturity overnight. The point is to recognize where we are and act accordingly.
II. Lifestyle Observations
1. Cash is still essential
While WeChat Pay and Alipay rule mainland China, cash remains necessary in Hong Kong. Octopus cards cover many use cases, but some buses and restaurants accept only cash—and topping up Octopus requires paper bills.
2. Master Lego builders
Though I’m from Guangdong, this was my first trip to Hong Kong. The architecture here maximizes limited space—like expertly stacked Lego blocks. Buildings stand extremely close; neighbors could pass items through open windows. Small intersections outnumber major ones, and footbridges often connect towers directly. All this creates a sense of constant pressure—literally and mentally.
3. Other observations
Random details noticed while walking around:
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Unlike mainland China, Hong Kong crosswalks prominently mark directions (“Look Left / Look Right”) and include tactile signals for the visually impaired
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Escalator-style convenience elevators (attached to stair railings) assist those with mobility issues—something not yet common in mainland cities. Though honestly, usage seems low
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On weekends, many Filipino domestic workers gather on footbridges and open spaces to chat and rest
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The city is clean—rarely any litter—but also surprisingly few trash bins visible on streets
III. Personal Reflections
This conference felt noticeably smaller than last year’s 2049 in Singapore. Most exhibitors were Chinese projects, with few international teams. Attendance at talks was sparse—people increasingly realize that conferences yield minimal high-quality insights. Real conversations happen in private settings.
Compared to last year, I feel more recognized—proof that consistent effort pays off. I consider myself lucky to have received guidance from many mentors along the way.
Still, there’s a long road ahead. Joining a VC has taught me that investing is both science and art—requiring deep historical and industry knowledge, plus foresight into emerging trends. “Do the right thing at the right time” sounds easy, but execution determines success or failure. My biggest gap right now is aligning knowledge with action: I lack market sensitivity, fail to follow through, and need better grasp of secondary markets. Practice and reflection are critical to developing my own strategy. One thing’s certain—I’m definitely not cut out for short-term plays haha.
With the year just beginning, there’s much to do. As graduation nears, I’ll keep accelerating—aiming to earn invites to more closed-door meetings next year hh. But above all, I hope to keep advancing steadily on my Web3 journey.
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