Viewpoint: There's no need to worry about this cycle being shorter, but it's not different because of ETFs
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Viewpoint: There's no need to worry about this cycle being shorter, but it's not different because of ETFs
The market always finds narratives or factors to increase leverage, but leverage will eventually collapse—taking profits is human nature.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Mippo, Crypto KOL
Translation: Felix, PANews
Many people are asking the same question: "Is this cycle moving too fast? Does it mean the cycle will be shorter?"
Frankly, these questions resonate with the author. The bear market of 2018–2020 was far worse than the current one. Last time, the bear market lasted nearly a full year longer than this round, and the sense of collapse in the crypto industry was ten times stronger. Back then, the entire industry was struggling desperately, and conditions deteriorated day by day.
In contrast, the market situation from 2022 to 2023 has been relatively decent. If you're building an on-chain product, it might not even feel like a bear market—projects can still get funding, and conferences can still attract 20,000 attendees. Compared to 2019, it’s almost night and day.
But concerns naturally arise. Many in crypto can't help but worry: is it possible that the market has entered a bull run without first experiencing a significant downturn?
To the author, this line of thinking feels somewhat superstitious. It's understandable to believe that leverage needs to be cleared and hype needs to vanish. But those things have indeed already happened—half of the people or projects in the crypto space have already been wiped out.
Now, looking around, the author observes every hallmark of an early-stage bull market.
We are currently in a typical Bitcoin-dominated spot rally, and Bitcoin's dominance appears to be nearing its peak. This sets the stage for a major rebound in ETHBTC, which should follow shortly.
There are also many other healthy indicators.
Metrics such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) and the ratio between long-term and short-term holders both suggest we are still in the early phase of this cycle.
Although Coinbase is climbing up the app store rankings, it is still quite low.
Notably, during the last bull market, Coinbase held the top spot across the entire app store for nearly a year.
Today, Coinbase ranks 14th in the finance category and only 156th among all apps.
The author believes the best way to understand the current situation is this: the bull market trumpet has sounded, and there's no reason to expect this bull run to be longer, shorter, or fundamentally different from any other.
Many say this bull market is different because of ETFs, and they offer some "fairly credible" arguments to support this view—but the author disagrees. Markets always find narratives or factors to increase leverage, but leverage eventually collapses. Taking profits is human nature. These are timeless truths.
That said, the author believes ETFs will accelerate the trend of higher lows and lower highs. Over time, with more buying on dips and selling on breakouts, trading volume should become suppressed. This has already begun to happen, but it’s a pattern seen in previous cycles—not a newly emerging phenomenon.
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@MikeIppolito_
