Deep Thinking: How This Bull Market Differs From Previous Ones, and the Adjustment of Get-Rich-Quick Strategies Accordingly
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Deep Thinking: How This Bull Market Differs From Previous Ones, and the Adjustment of Get-Rich-Quick Strategies Accordingly
The way to maximize returns is to focus on good projects and go deep.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Ri Yue Xiao Chu
There are three major differences between the upcoming bull market and previous ones in history. Based on these differences, we need to adjust our trading strategies accordingly.
1) Difference in capital size: The current total crypto market cap is $2 trillion, with BTC priced at $50K. At the beginning of 2020, BTC was only around $10K;
2) Difference in market consensus: Before the last bull run, during 2018–2020, there were widespread reports predicting that cryptocurrencies would go to zero, and many people actually left the industry. However, in this cycle, even during the severe downturn of 2022, most people still believed another bull market would come;
3) Difference in market participation size;
These three differences are obvious and can help us deduce how this bull market will be different.
1. Increased Market Sophistication and Growth of Professional Secondary Institutions
As the capital volume in the secondary market grows, market sophistication inevitably increases. The number of dedicated secondary market funds and institutions has risen significantly. Simply put, when your capital is $100K, you can manage research on your own. But when it reaches $10M, you’ll need a professional research team. Additionally, more specialized funds have been established specifically for the secondary market. Overall, these funds possess professional teams, strong capital backing, and abundant resources. As retail investors, we cannot directly compete with them. This is also why predicting BTC’s price movements over the past two years has become increasingly difficult—because more powerful institutions are now involved, turning the market into a battleground among large players.
So what should retail investors like us do?
1) The accuracy of previously effective personal skills will decline—a natural consequence of rising market professionalism;
2) Consider gaining access to core circles of professional institutions through networking and relationships;
3) If you can't access institutions, form alliances with capable individuals and conduct joint research;
4) In trading, exploit the weaknesses of institutional players,
for example, their slower decision-making speed compared to individual traders, which causes them to react more slowly to new projects or emerging trends.
Institutional investment targets are limited, as they follow mainstream investment logic. Some sectors simply don’t fit their framework. A clear example is inscriptions. Future opportunities similar to inscriptions may offer even greater potential for wealth creation.
2. Deep Focus on Specific Projects or Ecosystems
Assume that taking a project to a certain market cap (e.g., $1 billion circulating) requires a fixed amount of capital. In this bull market, overall market capital has increased by tens of times, meaning opportunities have also multiplied. Of course, reality isn't ideal—high-initial-market-cap projects must be excluded. Still, compared to the last bull market, opportunities remain vastly greater. In this cycle, a decent project or public chain with support from a few institutions and an active community can easily achieve a substantial market cap.
This also means a project doesn’t need broad market approval—even being overlooked or criticized won’t necessarily hurt it. As long as a small portion of institutions, whales, and retail investors believe in it, it can still reach a significant valuation.
Take the current market cycle as an example: inscriptions likely had the highest gains, followed by the Solana ecosystem. Beyond widely recognized names, many lesser-known tokens have delivered excellent returns—some even completely unheard of. Not to mention, several newly launched projects immediately created wealth for early participants, such as Pixel, Dym, etc.
But don’t get too excited. While opportunities are greater, so too are the number of institutions and professional teams. High-potential projects attract intense scrutiny. If you continue to dabble superficially or merely chase trends, you might only catch leftovers—or miss out entirely.
Therefore, the best way to maximize returns is to deeply focus on promising projects. Given the massive capital inflow, quality projects will eventually deliver solid returns—but only if you get in early.
3. Obvious Valuation Premiums and Scarcity of Undervalued Projects
One noticeable feature of this bull market is that many newly launched projects start with extremely high valuations. This is an inevitable outcome of a capital-rich market. However, what many fail to realize is that truly undervalued projects have become extremely rare.
The reason is simple: there’s more money and more participants. Professional teams are quick to identify and capitalize on undervalued assets. For average investors, finding such opportunities is extremely difficult. Therefore, instead of spending time searching for undervalued gems, I recommend studying cyclical bottoms. Every market cycle correction leads to broad price declines—few assets escape unscathed. During panic phases, prices are often unjustifiably beaten down. By focusing on identifying cycle lows, you’re more likely to buy at attractive prices.
Leveraging information asymmetry is another viable strategy, especially in a capital-rich environment. There's always a time lag between the emergence of new on-chain projects and their discovery by the broader market.
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