With the ETF shoe finally dropping, who will take the baton in 2024's dominant narrative?
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With the ETF shoe finally dropping, who will take the baton in 2024's dominant narrative?
One carrot, one pit—after ETFs have settled, what other potential mainstream narratives are worth watching in 2024?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Frank, Foresight News
Since October 2023, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been one of the core narratives driving market recovery. Now that the long-awaited approval has finally materialized (see "Timeline | New Milestone: Spot Bitcoin ETF Finally Approved"), what sectors in the crypto market should we watch next amid this new backdrop?
This article provides a brief overview of recently outperforming cryptocurrencies and broadens the lens to explore potential mainstream narratives that may take over from ETFs in 2024.
Strength in the Greater Ethereum Ecosystem
Since last October, ETH has trended lower against BTC, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate falling from above 0.064 to below 0.05, oscillating broadly within the 0.05–0.055 range.
However, around December 20, tokens related to the broader Ethereum ecosystem began gradually breaking out of their consolidation or downtrend phase, steadily climbing higher. In less than a month, many of these tokens have quietly reached new all-time highs.
Looking at recent standout performers in the crypto market, it's clear that the greater Ethereum ecosystem—particularly Layer2 and LSD sectors—is undeniably the dominant theme.
Layer2 Momentum Builds
First is the Layer2 sector. At the time of writing, ARB has broken through 2.3 USDT on OKX (spot data, same below), setting consecutive new all-time highs.
Since December 21, ARB has surged by 100%, emerging as the undisputed leader in the Layer2 space. Its ecosystem tokens like MAGIC and RDNT also posted 24-hour gains exceeding 10%, demonstrating clear spillover effects.
Other L2 projects have also performed strongly: OP reclaimed 4 USDT, nearing its historical high of 4.18 USDT; IMX has multiplied several times since October 20, rising from under 0.6 USDT to above 2.2 USDT; SKL briefly surpassed 0.1 USDT with over 20% gain in 24 hours, among others.
LSD Bounces Back Strongly
Meanwhile, the LSD sector has rebounded sharply. Flagship token LDO briefly broke above 4 USDT during the day, marking a new high since listing on OKX, and has gained over 100% since December 20.
Other projects in the sector are also surging: RPL crossed 37 USDT, up nearly 50% in four days; SSV peaked at 38.62 USDT—more than triple its price of 12.22 USDT on October 20; PENDLE, which has revived strongly after entering the LSD race, broke above 1.7 USDT, reaching a new all-time high; LBR surpassed 1.4 USDT with about 40% gain in 48 hours, and so on.
ENS Stands Out
Additionally, ENS, which had been trading low for the past six months, has successively broken through 10 USDT and 15 USDT, soaring to above 18 USDT with a 24-hour gain of 26.37%, its highest level since February 20, 2023.
Interestingly, whether it’s L2, LSD/DVT, or ENS, Vitalik Buterin has recently amplified these narratives through blog posts and tweets:
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On December 28, 2023, Vitalik published a blog post discussing the market landscape and future direction of L2, mentioned ENS, and revisited distributed validator technology, exploring ways to handle massive signature loads on Ethereum without sacrificing decentralization (recommended reading: "Vitalik’s New Essay: Reimagining Ethereum’s Cypherpunk World");
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On January 3, 2024, Vitalik tweeted specifically: "All L2s should run CCIP resolvers so that we can register, update, and read ENS subdomains directly on L2. ENS is very important and needs to be affordable."
Other Hotspots Remain Scattered
Beyond this, market interest remains fragmented. Based on OKX’s gainers list, various DeFi projects such as AUCTION, SNX, and CETUS posted 24-hour gains above 15%, while established blue chips like AAVE also rebounded strongly.
Among Layer1 blockchains, besides frequently reported SOL and AVAX, DOT, NEAR, ADA, and SUI all posted 24-hour gains above 10%.
Moreover, these blockchain tokens have posted cumulative gains above 80% over the past two months. DOT, in particular, rebounded from a historical low of 3.5 USDT to a high of 9.6 USDT in under three months—an especially impressive performance.
In other sectors such as NFTs, AI, and bots, leaders like BLUR, FET, and UNIBOT have shown strong momentum, but no broad-based effect has emerged yet—overall, it remains a case of leaders moving first.
After ETFs: What Are the Next Mainstream Narratives?
As noted earlier, to some extent, the core narrative behind the market rebound over the past two months has stemmed from expectations around spot Bitcoin ETFs. With ETF approvals now finalized, what narratives or sectors should we watch next?
Post-ETF Concepts
Public data shows that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has currently recognized five non-security tokens: Bitcoin, Ethereum, BCH, LTC, and DOT.
This implies that after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutions are likely to consider applying for new spot crypto ETFs using BCH, LTC, or DOT—three non-security tokens.
Therefore, beyond the widely watched Ethereum, BCH, LTC, and DOT undoubtedly hold significant room for speculation and imagination. The recent price catch-up seen in DOT may already reflect such expectations.
Halving and PoW Narrative
According to OKLink data, there are approximately 100 days left until Bitcoin’s fourth halving—expected on April 23, 2024—when block rewards will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
As one of the most iconic narratives in crypto, the “Bitcoin halving” remains a highly anticipated catalyst. Each previous halving has been a major event, followed by dramatic price increases within 12 months:
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Within 12 months of the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged 8,256%;
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Within 12 months of the 2016 halving, Bitcoin rose 287%;
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Within 12 months of the 2020 halving, Bitcoin climbed 542%;
While the ETF narrative has somewhat diminished the uniqueness of the halving story, as the event draws closer, Bitcoin and the PoW camp may see renewed speculative interest. Historically, PoW—the oldest narrative in crypto—tends to produce at least one breakout mining coin each year.
Meanwhile, BCH and ETC, both approaching their own halvings this year, may also warrant attention. Interestingly, ETC, often jokingly called the "Doomsday Coin," spiked today to 28.888 USDT—a 35% gain in 24 hours—and hit its highest level since October 2022.
Greater Bitcoin Ecosystem
During the 2023 Bitcoin ecosystem wave, platforms like OKX seized early advantages. As 2024 begins, competition in the Bitcoin ecosystem is set to become a long-term narrative among major players like Binance and OKX—watch for spillover effects.
Particularly promising are Layer2 solutions and derivative applications within the ecosystem. Just as Arbitrum and Optimism emerged as leading Ethereum Layer2 projects in 2021, it's not out of the question that 2024 could see the rise of billion-dollar-scale Bitcoin L2 leaders.
Greater Ethereum Ecosystem (L2, LSD)
At the time of writing, Ethereum is scheduled to activate the Dencun upgrade on the Goerli testnet on January 17, 2024, at 14:32 UTC. If no critical issues arise, it will proceed to the Sepolia and Holesky testnets (expected late January to early February).
Once Dencun runs successfully across all three testnets, mainnet activation will be scheduled—marking the official arrival of the post-Cancun era that many have been anticipating.
Just as Bitcoin was propelled in 2023 by the dual narratives of "Ordinals + ETF," technically and fundamentally, Ethereum in 2024 appears to be forming its own dual engine: "Dencun + ETF."
Under this backdrop, the broader Ethereum ecosystem—especially L2 and LSD sectors—is poised to attract significant market attention. With L2 wars facing intensifying pressure from various RaaS solutions and modular DA designs, 2024 could bring unexpected variables and groundbreaking products beyond conventional competition—worth watching closely.
Deep Disruption in AI
Last night and this morning, news of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals dominated headlines, causing many industry insiders to overlook OpenAI’s two major product launches: the GPT Store and ChatGPT Team for enterprises.
The former allows users to browse popular and trending GPTs on community leaderboards, spanning categories like DALL·E, writing, research, programming, education, and lifestyle. The latter is a new enterprise-grade offering for teams of all sizes, providing access to advanced models and tools, enterprise-level data privacy and security, and the ability to create and share custom GPTs.
As the tech headline of 2023, the ChatGPT wave has swept across the entire tech industry. Despite OpenAI’s dramatic leadership saga at year-end, its potential to transform lives, work, and societal production will continue to deepen in 2024.
For Web3, an industry actively integrating with AI, 2024 is likely to see an explosion of AI-related projects. With capital and attention spilling over, we may witness the emergence of projects with extraordinary growth and scale.
Forest, co-founder of Foresight Ventures, has publicly stated: "AI + Crypto represent the two largest technological revolutions visible in human innovation today. In the next bull market, at least 10–15 of the top 100 market cap projects will be AI-related."
Solana and Other New-Gen L1s
With the resurgence of heterogeneous chains like Solana, and growing bottlenecks in Ethereum Layer2 development, the industry has reignited debates around Ethereum and its scaling solutions. Issues like liquidity fragmentation and incompatibility among numerous Layer2s have at times made the Ethereum narrative appear lackluster.
Meanwhile, the sustained surge in SOL and AVAX has acted as a powerful boost for "new-generation blockchains," drawing back market attention and capital. This suggests that Solana and similar next-gen ecosystems may experience a mini-spring in 2024.
Especially the leading Solana ecosystem, which is now seeing promising sub-projects emerge across DeFi, NFTs, and the hot DePIN sector. It’s possible that 2024 will yield breakout projects achieving mass adoption—worthy of long-term tracking.
Conclusion
The crypto world thrives on narratives, and the demand for new stories is eternal. Thus, when viewed on monthly or yearly cycles, the logic behind every major market move is ultimately traceable.
Now that the SEC has signed off, closing the biggest narrative of 2023, 2024 must usher in new ones. Early subtle signals that have been quietly building momentum will gradually come into focus. May we all find meaningful opportunities in 2024.
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