With the upcoming Cancun upgrade, is it time for L2 to shine?
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With the upcoming Cancun upgrade, is it time for L2 to shine?
The real competition among L2s after the Cancun upgrade has just begun.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Haotian
Recently, layer2s have finally broken their silence and had a moment to shine—tokens like $OP, $ARB, and $METIS have performed exceptionally well, reminiscent of the "showtime" right before the Cancun upgrade.
Why does the "competitive rat race" among layer2s only truly begin after the Cancun upgrade? And how will the market landscape evolve post-upgrade? Here’s my take:
1) The implementation of EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) in Ethereum's Cancun upgrade will bring a qualitative boost to layer2 Rollup projects.
By introducing a new data structure called Blob space, it overcomes the limitations of relying on calldata for data storage and enhances Ethereum mainnet’s data availability (DA) capability.
Compared to calldata, which requires full nodes to store all data permanently, Blobs are designed for temporary storage by partial nodes. This significantly increases the amount of data layer2s can submit per batch to the mainnet, thereby boosting TPS. Additionally, because storage is temporary, efficiency improves and data storage costs plummet. Enhanced DA capacity also stems from this one-month retention window, which more than suffices for OP-Rollups' seven-day fraud proof challenge period.
As a result, the volume of transactions each layer2 submits per batch will rise dramatically, reducing per-user fees substantially. Before the Cancun upgrade, many layer2s boasted high TPS figures—but mostly under test conditions. In reality, users often experienced poor gas fee inefficiencies, leading them to question whether these layer2s truly delivered on their promises.
After the upgrade, with the mainnet bottleneck removed, layer2 teams can no longer blame performance constraints on Ethereum. Hard metrics such as TPS and gas fees will become direct benchmarks—marking a pivotal shift in layer2 competition.
This is precisely why I’ve consistently emphasized that the real competition among layer2s only begins post-Cancun;
2) After the Cancun upgrade, competition intensifies within the layer2 market, with rising challengers threatening the existing OP + ZK duopoly.
Decentralization of the Sequencer has long been a focal point. Interestingly, despite OP-Rollup’s dominance in the layer2 space, its Sequencer decentralization remains a form of “soft decentralization”—essentially a social consensus driven by the Stack Alliance model.
Regardless of criticism toward Optimism’s lackluster progress on decentralization, its success via OP-Stack seems undeniable. But can we really say OP-Rollup represents the entirety of Rollups? Clearly not. A more reasonable evolution would be that while OP-Stack’s strengths get amplified, others will naturally fill its gaps.
Recently, @MetisDAO—a provider of decentralized Sequencer solutions—has seen remarkable secondary market performance, surging over 100% in 7 days. Its TVL has skyrocketed to $540 million, approaching zkSync levels. Why?
The core business logic is simple: since OP-Rollup has stalled on Sequencer decentralization, any project offering a viable decentralized alternative immediately captures market opportunity.
After all, Sequencer decentralization directly impacts the trustworthiness of transaction submission and the security of cross-layer interactions. Without addressing this foundational issue, even impressive post-Cancun gains in TPS and lower gas fees risk becoming mere “castles in the air.” While I acknowledge Optimism’s strategic success with Stack, someone else will inevitably solve the Sequencer decentralization puzzle.
Metis employs a POS staking mechanism, running multiple backup Sequencer nodes that compete for block production rewards through an election system, with malicious behavior penalized via slashing. This POS consensus binds every Sequencer into a shared stakeholder community. The Metis Foundation further incentivizes ecosystem growth—allocating 4.6 million $METIS tokens to reward Sequencer mining and new project deployments.
Compared to Optimism, Metis still has a relatively low market cap. Rather than head-on competition with OP, it carves out space solely through superior Sequencer decentralization.
Metis is just one recent standout example. In my view, the layer2 market will expand further post-Cancun. New entrants aiming to snatch market share from the OP and ZK giants will deploy innovative strategies, pushing the layer2 race to unprecedented levels—and creating abundant opportunities among emerging layer2s.
3) Layer2s will gradually evolve toward modularity, challenging traditional notions of legitimacy—narrowly defined layer2s will be replaced by broader interpretations.
As I've noted in previous articles, the essence of layer2 lies in Ethereum’s data availability (DA). If Ethereum’s full nodes don’t participate in verifying layer2 data integrity, then the mainnet effectively becomes just a “billboard,” and layer2s lose inheritance of Ethereum’s security. Thus, projects relying on Ethereum’s DA qualify as narrow-sense layer2s; those operating outside Ethereum’s DA framework fall into the broad-sense category (some may even argue they shouldn't be considered layer2s at all).
However, once the layer2 market reaches sufficient scale, the sanctity of purely Ethereum-dependent layer2s may erode. Much like how OP-Rollup’s fraud proofs—despite lacking real-world battle testing—are selectively ignored by the market, technical purity often gives way to commercial and ecosystem dynamics. After all, Optimism keeps pulling miracles under the banner of optimism.
This implies that third-party DA solutions will increasingly penetrate the layer2 space post-Cancun—including offerings like @CelestiaOrg’s external DA and @EspressoSys’s shared Sequencer model. Despite reluctance, the commercial logic of modularization will steadily dismantle defenses once thought impenetrable on Ethereum.
The focus of OP-Stack deployment is achieving a shared Sequencer. As the OP alliance grows, so does its ability to capture value through Sequencers—yet this also brings greater entanglement with diverse stakeholders. This social consensus may act as a non-technical constraint, anchoring Optimism in a “big brother” role rather than enabling disruptive innovation.
In contrast, ZK-Stack focuses on building a shared Prover system. Whether leveraging its own DA, third-party DA like Celestia, or limited Ethereum DA, ZK’s strategic priority lies in expanding the multi-chain ZK landscape via layer3 Hyperchains—where the source of DA matters less.
Their incentives dictate that they care little about where DA comes from—the only entity truly concerned with DA being tied to Ethereum is Ethereum itself. That’s why Vitalik champions Plasma + ZK amid Celestia’s growing encroachment. Yet OP and ZK teams, focused on strategic expansion, couldn’t care less. They’re laser-focused on scaling their respective Stack-based layer2 ecosystems—because RaaS (Rollup-as-a-Service) is ultimately the endgame for layer2 monetization.
In summary, the layer2 landscape post-Cancun will be extraordinarily dynamic—whether due to bold new entrants or the expansion of strategic boundaries—fueling a diversified and vibrant market.
Ultimately, the layer2 sector will transform into a highly modular marketplace, integrating ZK technology, OP frameworks, various DA solutions, different Sequencer services, and diverse gas fee models—all working together in a complex, interoperable ecosystem.
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
