June Crypto Market Outlook: Fed Rate Hikes, Hong Kong Licenses, Layer2, SocialFi...
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June Crypto Market Outlook: Fed Rate Hikes, Hong Kong Licenses, Layer2, SocialFi...
In June, the crypto ecosystem remained highly dynamic, with frequent developments: Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, Hong Kong's issuance of its first batch of exchange compliance licenses, Blockchain Week Korea 2023, Layer2, SocialFi... This summer promises to be full of highlights.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAfter the meme and BRC20 craze, the recent crypto market has been relatively calm, with both BTC and Ethereum moving sideways amid volatility. However, June is set to be packed with dynamic developments across the crypto ecosystem—Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, Hong Kong's first batch of exchange compliance licenses, Korea Blockchain Week 2023, Layer2, SocialFi, and more. This summer promises plenty of highlights.
Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations
To hike or not to hike—that is the question! And it’s the first major market focus in June.
According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in June is 34.6%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 65.4%.
The Fed now has only 25 basis points of room left for rate hikes. Regardless of whether rates rise in June, the long-standing pressure on the crypto market from monetary tightening appears to be nearing its end.
Hong Kong's First Batch of Exchange Compliance Licenses
According to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), the "Guidelines for Virtual Asset Trading Platform Operators" will take effect on June 1. The SFC welcomes virtual asset trading platforms ready to meet regulatory standards to apply for licenses. Platforms unwilling to obtain licenses should begin winding down their operations in Hong Kong in an orderly manner.
This marks significant progress in Hong Kong's ambitious plan to become a global virtual asset hub, paving the way for more licensed exchanges. Huobi, OKX, MetaTdex, OneKey, and many others have already submitted applications for these compliance licenses.
Korea Blockchain Week
From June 2 to June 7, the "First Half Korea Blockchain Week" will be grandly held in Seoul. As one of Asia’s most influential blockchain events, Korea Blockchain Week will attract leading evangelists, business leaders, and core developers from the global crypto industry to Seoul, engaging in discussions on cutting-edge blockchain trends through keynote speeches, workshops, exhibitions, and networking events.
South Korea’s most impactful annual blockchain event is finally here. What key announcements and highlights will emerge? Could they influence market movements? All eyes are on this gathering.
Layer2: Preparing for the Dencun Upgrade
At the latest Ethereum ACDE meeting at the end of May, developers suggested a target activation time of October for the Dencun upgrade. As the biggest narrative of the second half of the year and Ethereum’s next major milestone, the Dencun upgrade could trigger a significant market rally. Thus, initial preparations and planning will begin in June.
Undoubtedly, Layer2 will remain the central theme. The Dencun upgrade will primarily benefit L2 protocols and their ecosystems: OP Stack-based ecosystems will become more diverse; ZK-based ecosystems will gain greater usability due to improved data availability; and independent Layer2 projects previously hindered by high costs may experience rapid growth.
SocialFi Watchlist
SocialFi remains an untapped and promising frontier. Reviewing recent performance, the sector has been lukewarm overall.
In June, attention continues to focus on Lens and CharityDAO. Lens is a leading social protocol project with strong potential to lead the SocialFi space. CharityDAO, a trending Web3 charity initiative, shows breakout potential. As DeFi gradually recovers, will SocialFi see a surge in momentum? Many users are watching closely.
BNB Chain "Luban" Upgrade
BNB Chain will undergo the "Luban" network upgrade at block height 29,020,050, expected around 5:30 AM Beijing time on June 12.
The Luban hard fork includes three BEPs: BEP-126, BEP-174, and BEP-221. Validators and full node operators on the mainnet must upgrade their software to version v1.2.4 before June 12, 2023. The shared goal is to build a faster and more secure network for users.
Others:
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June 2: U.S. releases May non-farm payroll data
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June 13: U.S. May CPI data release
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June 21: Crypto exchange Hotbit officially ceases operations
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June 22: Coinbase co-hosts a cryptocurrency summit with the Financial Times in New York City
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June 25–30: IVS Crypto International Summit takes place in Tokyo, Japan
Additionally, a group of countries led by Russia are expected to introduce cryptocurrency-related regulations in June. Furthermore, several on-chain protocols and services are launching, such as Notional V3—a fixed-rate lending protocol going live on the Ethereum mainnet in early June.
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