Lessons from the performance of crypto assets beyond Bitcoin in previous bull markets
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Lessons from the performance of crypto assets beyond Bitcoin in previous bull markets
How to Survive in a Bull Market "Trap"?
Chuyên sâu báo cáo Web3Author: BowTied Bull
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
As we enter 2025, it's customary to reflect on the past and look ahead to the future.
Looking back at the history of the crypto industry, we can observe an interesting pattern: every four years, there’s a "shitcoin season," during which everything in the space seems to go up. You might even hear that your alcoholic uncle made a fortune buying some animal-themed meme coin—possibly while drunk.
In 2025, the real shitcoin season hasn't fully arrived yet. While no one can predict how wild this cycle will be, I want to remind everyone that altcoin rallies tend to spiral out of control quickly—and end just as suddenly. When the crash comes, losses may not just be -99.99%, but total collapse.
Until then, everyone is immersed in prosperity and entertainment. So, let’s take a look back at previous shitcoin seasons—can we learn anything valuable from them?
2012–2013 Shitcoin Season: Early Enthusiasts, Peak Market Cap Reaching $15 Billion
We know that mindless FOMO investors are likely to reappear in today’s market. This exact scenario played out in 2013—and the trajectory was fascinating.
During the 2013 "shitcoin season," Bitcoin was still in its early stages, with a total market cap around $1 billion. A whale transaction at the time might only be $100,000. Mt. Gox was still operating, and many investors were people who previously hung around Magic: The Gathering trading card events (which also explains the background of the Mt. Gox incident).
Back then, people proposed improving Bitcoin’s transaction speed by reducing block times—an idea considered revolutionary at the time.
Litecoin (LTC): Still active today, Litecoin’s core concept (proposed by Charlie Lee) was to shorten the block time from Bitcoin’s 10 minutes to just 2.5 minutes.
LTC surged from about $0.10 to $48—a roughly 47,900% gain—and rose again in 2017. Charlie Lee later sold all his holdings, claiming “Bitcoin will be fine without me.” (Everyone knows what it means when a founder sells 100% of their stake.)
Namecoin: A Bitcoin fork aiming to create decentralized domain names (similar to ENS using the ".eth" extension). Its price once spiked to ~$13 before crashing. From low to high, it gained about 30x. It still exists today, trading near $1.
Peercoin (PPC): One of the earliest Proof-of-Stake tokens (a mechanism now used to secure ETH), it saw two major rallies—one in 2013 and another in 2017 during the ETH ICO boom. It briefly reached ~$7, up 60–70x. Naturally, it never achieved mainstream adoption and eventually fell to $0.42. (That said, aside from outright scams like Bitconnect or LUNA, most assets won’t truly go to zero.)
The Hype: Bitcoin eventually hit $1,200, and interest in crypto lifted nearly every altcoin. Any project posted on BitcoinTalk could surge purely on speculation. Today’s closest equivalent? Probably a celebrity-endorsed memecoin or one named after a famous person.
Mt. Gox Collapse: When Mt. Gox imploded due to a major hack, the party ended. Bitcoin dropped ~85–90% (depending on where you mark the bottom), and altcoins lost over 99% of their value.
2017 Shitcoin Season: ICO Mania and Ethereum’s Rise, Peak Market Cap of $800 Billion
During the subsequent bear market, several pivotal events unfolded. Ethereum emerged as a smart contract platform designed for programmable money. This was genuine innovation—enabling not just token transfers, but smart contracts that changed the game entirely.
Like many things in crypto, Ethereum came with familiar risks. The DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) was hacked, losing over $100 million, leading to a blockchain split into ETH and ETC. Some still argue the fork was a mistake, but we won’t dive into that debate here—just noting the history.
By 2016, people realized new tokens could be issued on Ethereum, giving rise to Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). Projects began selling tokens directly to investors. In 2017, ICO mania exploded—with countless scams emerging overnight.
Ethereum (ETH): Since ETH was required to participate in ICOs, demand skyrocketed. ETH surged from ~$8 to $1,400 in January 2018—an unimaginable return at the time. Today, ETH trades around $3,650.
Ripple (XRP): Still seen as the “banker’s coin,” XRP’s narrative was that Ripple would overnight replace SWIFT as the global financial standard. Despite being centralized (which most didn’t care about), it attracted millions. XRP jumped from ~$0.01 to $3.80, currently trading at $2.41.
Oddly, XRP’s investor base remains largely retail. In the latest rally, similar trends emerged—XRP dominated TikTok discussions, with users speculating, “What if it reaches Bitcoin’s market cap?” Talk of a “$4 trillion valuation” seemed surreal.
Litecoin (LTC): As mentioned, LTC surged again, hitting $360. Even after Charlie Lee sold all his coins, it reached $384 in 2021!
EOS: Raised $4 billion via ICO, branded as the “Ethereum killer.” Peaked at $22 but never reclaimed that high.
NEO: Another “Ethereum killer,” dubbed “China’s Ethereum.” NEO soared from $0.20 to $200—a 1,000x return.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Roger Ver, a well-known Bitcoin figure, supported large-block forks. At block 478,559 in August 2017, 1 BTC holders received 1 BCH. With Ver’s backing, BCH surged to ~$3,800 before fading into obscurity.
Other Ethereum Killers: Numerous tokens (like ADA, Tron) were marketed as “Ethereum killers.” Simply having a whitepaper could send prices soaring 10x or 100x. Others like Filecoin and Tezos launched during this period.
Yield Scams: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius, and Voyager were the first yield scams—you’re wrong. The first major Ponzi scheme was Bitconnect, which cost many millions.
Regulatory Crackdown: As in the 2021 cycle, regulatory intervention and scam collapses destroyed the market. The SEC began investigating projects like EOS. The market corrected sharply by ~85%. By March 2020, Bitcoin had fallen to ~$3,500.
Most tokens were pure scams, so the altcoin market crashed nearly -99.999999%. If your token got a Super Bowl ad, its price could instantly quintuple. VIBE was a classic example.
VIBE surged from $0.04 to over $2—but eventually collapsed to a market cap of just $262.
2021 Shitcoin Season: DeFi, NFTs, and Memecoins, Peak Market Cap of $3 Trillion
In 2021, due to well-known circumstances, everyone was working from home, glued to their screens. The U.S. government printed $10 trillion—just in direct spending.
DeFi projects fueled liquidity mining, NFTs brought JPEGs into the mainstream (selling for millions), and memecoins reached absurd valuations. Bitcoin broke $69,000, ETH hit $4,800, and total crypto market cap surpassed $3 trillion in November 2021.
Dogecoin: Started as a joke, but Elon Musk’s interest sent it parabolic, making it a Reddit sensation. Now, it’s almost Elon’s official meme coin, symbolizing government efficiency. Price surged from ~$0.005 to $0.74—an increase of ~15,000%.
Solana: Marketed as the next “Ethereum killer,” praised for fast transactions and low fees—largely promoted by SBF (now imprisoned). Price jumped from $1 to ~$260—a 26,000% gain.
Shiba Inu: A Dogecoin-inspired memecoin that minted thousands of millionaires. From near-zero market cap, it gained up to 500,000%.
DeFi Tokens: AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, YFI, etc., gained between 10x and 50x. Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi surpassed tens of billions. Today, many DeFi protocols have higher TVL than during the peak!
NFTs:
CryptoPunks: Sold for millions; the cheapest Punk now costs over 100 ETH.
Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): Became a cultural phenomenon, with floor prices reaching insane levels.
Airdrop Mania: Longtime users with a $100 .eth domain could receive $40,000 in airdrops. You could earn 2% daily or weekly yields just by bridging assets. Projects like BAYC airdropped high-value NFTs across multiple collections—totaling billions in value.
Even crazier… nearly every token was pumping. Coins like SAFEMOON were endorsed by figures like Dave Portnoy. Celebrities like Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton promoted various projects. Tom Brady and Stephen Curry advertised exchanges. Even the now-defunct FTX paid for naming rights to the Miami Heat arena.
Ponzi Schemes: Massive Ponzi schemes flourished. While some blamed us for promoting them, we didn’t participate. Luckily, many avoided big losses. Entrusting your assets to others has never been wise.
Death Spiral: As liquidity dried up (incentives disappeared), these Ponzi schemes collapsed. Then FTX failed due to customer fund theft, followed by renewed SEC enforcement. Widespread scams and rug pulls led the crypto industry into a strict regulatory era.
Key Lessons
1) Take Profits Early: Markets move fast, and greed creeps in. If you catch yourself thinking, “I wish I’d bought twice as much of X,” it’s probably time to sell half and lock in gains. Whether you convert to BTC, ETH, or stablecoins, the key is avoiding greed.
2) Hype Cycles Repeat: Each shitcoin season has a theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or memecoins. Once you identify a theme, stick with it—your expertise in that area tends to vanish when the cycle ends. Instead of jumping around, focus and reap the rewards.
3) Risk Management Is Crucial: Returns can be huge, but everyone’s situation differs. You’re not me, and I’m not my neighbor. Set a personal plan and stick to it—don’t keep raising targets because someone with $100K says “$10M isn’t enough to retire.”
4) Survivors Will Thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate every cycle. If a project has lasted this long, its risk of going to zero is lower. If Solana finds real-world utility beyond Pump.fun by 2025, it might reach similar resilience.
Have we learned from Ponzi schemes? Not really. Judging from current behavior, people still don’t understand “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins,” You can buy crypto stocks or leveraged crypto products through brokers, but remember: holding ETFs or equities doesn’t mean you own actual crypto. You’ll never know how these companies manage your invested assets.
In bull markets, we’re often criticized for not chasing the latest memecoin. While such speculation looks exciting now, those who stick to their strategy and stay calm are quietly building wealth.
In contrast, speculators chasing “10x returns” may get short-term attention, but their capital and strategies pale compared to anonymous whales steadily accumulating month after month. These whales typically have stronger financial foundations and clearer long-term plans. Ultimately, market performance and data will show which strategy leads to real success.
Wishing you all good luck in 2025.
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@BowTiedBull
