Chaos and Order: The Short-Term and Long-Term Creed of Cryptocurrency
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Chaos and Order: The Short-Term and Long-Term Creed of Cryptocurrency
Why do many people believe in Bitcoin, yet are unwilling to hold it?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsIn the crypto space, whether you're long or short, holding coins or not, mining or farming, running a business or quietly making money—almost everyone agrees that Bitcoin will be extremely valuable in the long run. (A small minority might think Ethereum will be more valuable, but anyway.)
Anyone who's involved in this industry, or even just within the broader ecosystem, generally acknowledges Bitcoin’s long-term value—even the most hardcore bears lack conviction when they shout “short it to zero,” because deep down they know they’ll take profits once the price rises by a few thousand dollars. They understand Bitcoin won’t go to zero.
The probability of a short-seller going bankrupt is infinitely higher than the probability of Bitcoin reaching zero.
In fact, people shouldn't overestimate their efforts against macro trends. Over the past ten years, five years, three years, or even since this year began, most people actively trading and strategizing haven’t outperformed simply holding Bitcoin.
Let alone how many are actually working in reverse.
Holding Bitcoin seems to be the long-standing creed of the crypto world—at least verbally. Everyone says it, but almost no one actually does it.
Few people truly own Bitcoin, and those with over 50% of their portfolio in it are exceedingly rare.
It's like saying anyone, even someone unfamiliar with stock markets, knows buying Moutai stock would surely make money—but among retail investors, how many actually hold Moutai shares? Similarly rare. This kind of pattern repeats across every market.
In financial markets, people often wave the flag of long-term investing while engaging in short-term speculation.
What lies behind this behavior is mentally amplifying the uncertainty embedded in otherwise certain long-term trends, while underestimating the risks of short-term volatility.
To put it plainly: given a guaranteed 10% return in one year versus a possible 100% return in two hours—with no idea of the odds—most people will choose the latter.
Time indeed magnifies uncertainty, as time itself is a key component of uncertainty—and many people psychologically exaggerate this factor even further.
People don’t want to wait. Short-term thinking dominates retail investors’ entire investment approach—faster and shorter. Wealth myths used to be about gaining 10% in a day; now they’re about multiplying your money tenfold overnight.
Holding spot Bitcoin only yields modest gains during price rallies, whereas futures contracts allow traders to profit handsomely in both rising and falling markets.
Thus, the long-term belief in Bitcoin is ceremonially enshrined in people’s hearts—taken out for worship when convenient, completely forgotten otherwise.
After all, everyone says the same thing:
"Bitcoin makes money too slowly."
So what exactly is the long-term creed of Bitcoin?
“What we see now is that our current domestic and international payment systems are inefficient. It is precisely these inefficiencies that have driven the rise of Bitcoin.” — Jay Clayton, Chairman of the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission).
It's the inefficiency of international payments, the high cost of cross-border transfers, the need for new digital gold in the internet era, and people trusting technology more than human institutions—that’s what drives Bitcoin.
The same logic applies to DeFi and Ethereum. Why is this year so different from the ICO era when “everything was vaporware”? Because back then it was driven by hype and human greed; now it's driven by technology and real-world applications.
Do people really need DeFi? I asked a close friend this question when it first started spreading last year—just like others often ask me: "Does the world really need Bitcoin?"
Clearly, yes.
The logic of DeFi is clear: if you don’t trust centralized exchanges but still have needs for trading, borrowing, and wealth management—what do you do? That’s exactly how the suite of decentralized finance solutions emerged.
Some trust exchanges, others don’t—that’s why DeFi has a market.
Likewise, apply the same reasoning to Bitcoin.
You trust banks, the Federal Reserve, large institutions, trusts, funds, insurance—but not everyone does, right?
That’s why people need Bitcoin.
One reason Bitcoin is hard for Chinese people to grasp is that China’s financial system appears stable—on the surface and in public perception—without major crises.
But Americans, having lived through centuries of financial turmoil, have long lost faith in bankers’ promises.
Some lessons can only be learned through experience and pain. Only after getting burned do people realize change is needed—just like many old-school Bitcoiners only began trusting nothing but their private keys after the Mt. Gox collapse.
So what’s driving the rise of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem?
The reason is simple: nearly every industry has been reinvented on the internet, except finance—which, due to various reasons, has remained protected and untouched. But change was inevitable. It was just a matter of time. The era chose Satoshi Nakamoto and Bitcoin to fire the first shot.
Of course, I remain somewhat dismissive of the term “decentralization.” In the end, so-called decentralized finance often becomes “new centralization.” Bitcoin’s decentralization was a perfect storm of timing, environment, and human factors—extremely difficult to replicate.
Why is true decentralization so hard? No rich person willingly revolutionizes themselves for charity, and no poor person remains unmoved by wealth after a revolution. Thus, centralization is inevitable. We should accept it, not resist it.
Resistance is futile—why cause yourself unnecessary suffering?
Still, cryptocurrencies today are far better than traditional industries’ deeply entrenched centralization and complex web of vested interests—much simpler. But within the next five years or so, new rigid interest structures will likely form. We’ll deal with that when it comes.
For now, it’s still positive. Long-term, just look at the internet—the revolutionary force that once challenged everything—see what it’s become today.
Those who break monopolies eventually create new, even scarier ones.
So when someone mocks Bitcoin by pointing out that Satoshi inscribed “Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks” in the genesis block, asking why bankers now embrace Bitcoin—well, that’s natural. The world still belongs to them. Bankers buy Bitcoin at much higher costs than early adopters, higher than 80% of ordinary participants.
And after Bitcoin breaks new all-time highs, how many regular people will still be buying?
Only they will keep purchasing at high prices, ultimately forming new barriers, a new “monopoly” built upon Bitcoin.
Non-violent revolutions are never thorough. But Bitcoin has already brought significant change, forcing powerful players to pay a heavy price. That’s enough.
Getting in early, accumulating chips for future market battles at relatively low cost before a new financial power structure solidifies—this is also part of Bitcoin’s long-term creed.
Retail investors in this market superficially worship long-term principles, but in reality, they’re obsessed with short-term gains.
A market that seems chaotic is actually highly orderly.
All investment behaviors are essentially leveraged variations built atop Bitcoin.
The holy grail of this market is the upward shift in the total market cap of the crypto ecosystem, and the resulting value rotation driven by fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market dominance, with liquidity flowing across sectors, generating continuous wealth effects.
But in the long run, liquidity will ultimately converge into Bitcoin and other high-quality projects. Long-term, Bitcoin and top-tier assets should account for around 70% of total market cap, with Bitcoin leading major breakthroughs in market valuation. The remaining 30% will rapidly grow to $100 billion, $200 billion, or even higher—accommodating several high-quality cryptos at the tens-of-billions scale and many more quality projects at the billion-dollar level.
After reading this paragraph, most people will forget the word “long-term” entirely and remember only the numbers and details that follow.
Bitcoin’s price is nearing its all-time high. Over the past decade, there were only three days when buying Bitcoin would have resulted in a loss—an incidence rate of less than 0.1%.
Yet the number of people who’ve actually made money investing in Bitcoin is nowhere near 99.9%. This is a clear sign that short-term thinking has overwhelmingly suppressed long-term beliefs.
Talking about long-term in this market feels absurd—after all, most people are here chasing overnight riches. Who’s really here to stay with Bitcoin for years on end?
Count them one by one. I hope each of you, in this seemingly chaotic yet orderly market, can embrace the long-term creed and become part of the minority.
That’s all.
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