Bernstein Research Report Analysis: Global Semiconductor Equipment to Rise 21% in 2026, Six China-US Industry Leaders Outperform the Market
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Bernstein Research Report Analysis: Global Semiconductor Equipment to Rise 21% in 2026, Six China-US Industry Leaders Outperform the Market
The global WFE upcycle is not yet over, with growth from 2026 to 2027 supported by continued investment in DRAM and NAND.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Rita
TechFlow Guide
Bernstein released its global semiconductor equipment monthly tracking on July 1. The data anchor is Japan SEAJ's May shipments; Japanese equipment manufacturers account for about 25% of global WFE, and the data is leading. But what's most noteworthy in the report is not Japan, but the uniform bullishness on six targets in the US and China. US AMAT (525 USD), LRCX (340 USD), KLAC (197.5 USD), China Naura (680 CNY), AMEC (500 CNY), Piotech (580 CNY), all six are rated Outperform. Behind this is the same judgment: capital expenditure on DRAM and NAND is driving up global equipment demand, 2026 WFE is bullish +21.4%, 2027 +18.2%. Japan SEAJ's May data (YoY +11%, test equipment +41%) provides validation for this judgment.
Three Growth Lines for the US Big Three: GAA, HBM, Advanced Packaging
Applied Materials AMAT target price 525 USD, Bernstein's bullish logic is triple-driven by market space growth plus service revenue plus capital return. AMAT is the world's largest semiconductor equipment platform company, with layouts in deposition, etching, CMP, and other links, AMAT is one of the biggest beneficiaries during the capex upcycle for DRAM and advanced logic.
Lam Research LRCX target price 340 USD, the logic is four lines advancing together: GAA plus advanced packaging plus HBM plus NAND upgrade. LRCX's etching equipment has unique advantages in GAA transistors and HBM stacking, Bernstein believes these demand directions will all land simultaneously.
KLA KLAC target price 197.5 USD, the logic is structural growth plus low China substitution risk. KLAC's inspection and metrology equipment is an indispensable link in chip manufacturing, Bernstein specifically mentions that Chinese peers have limited substitution capabilities in this field, KLAC has the thickest moat.
Three Chinese Leaders: Domestic Substitution Entering Realization Phase
Naura target price 680 CNY, described as the one with the fullest product line, covering deposition, etching, heat treatment, and cleaning. AMEC target price 500 CNY, core is etching leader plus deposition expansion plus rising global recognition. Piotech target price 580 CNY, highlight is deposition equipment cutting into the hybrid bonding link of HBM and CoWoS advanced packaging.
All three are simultaneously rated Outperform, indicating Bernstein believes China WFE's domestic substitution has reached the stage where specific targets can be bet on. Piotech's hybrid bonding equipment is especially noteworthy, this is a beneficiary chain of HBM and CoWoS capacity expansion, there are not many directly related ones in A-Shares.
Japan SEAJ Data Confirms Cycle Direction
Japanese equipment May shipments 420 billion JPY, up 11% YoY, three-month moving average +18%, trend is clear. Among them, test equipment +41% growth is the fiercest, driven by test intensity of HBM and Blackwell chips. Front-end +5%, packaging +12%, different rhythms but consistent direction.
Bernstein uses a regression model to predict Tokyo Electron's June quarter revenue may decrease 15% QoQ, lower than the market expectation of +7%, Advantest predicted +10%, higher than the market expectation of +3%, R² as high as 0.99, supported by exclusive supplier status for HBM testing. Japan also has Disco (packaging dicing, 85% share), Kokusai (Batch ALD, GAA plus NAND dual-driven), Lasertec (mask inspection) three rated Outperform.
TechFlow Perspective
The most valuable part of this Bernstein report, is the signal that all six US and China targets are rated Outperform. In the global WFE track, Bernstein gives positive judgments on two seemingly contradictory logics: "US technical barriers" and "China domestic substitution", simultaneously.
The US big three win on technical depth and comprehensive benefits during the storage capex upcycle. The three Chinese leaders win on the certainty of domestic substitution and new increments in advanced packaging, Piotech's hybrid bonding is especially worth watching. The common base of the two lines is the same judgment: The global WFE upcycle is not over yet, growth from 2026 to 2027 is supported by continuous investment in DRAM and NAND.
For Chinese investors focusing on US semiconductor stocks and A-Share equipment, this report provides a rare US-China aligned perspective. At a time when US-China logics pull against each other in most tracks, WFE is one of the few fields where Outperform targets can be found on both sides.
Disclaimer
This article is a compilation and interpretation by TechFlow Research of third-party brokerage research reports. Ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text are the views of the brokerage analysts, represent only their institution's stance, do not represent TechFlow Research's views, and do not constitute any investment advice. Market involves risks, decisions must be independent. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@chaoxiangooo
