Bitget UEX Daily Report | Positive Progress in Iran-U.S. Talks; NVIDIA Plunges Over 5%; Dell’s Guidance Exceeds Expectations
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Positive Progress in Iran-U.S. Talks; NVIDIA Plunges Over 5%; Dell’s Guidance Exceeds Expectations
We recommend accumulating leading semiconductor and software stocks on dips, while also monitoring gold as a hedge against trade tensions. Overall, we maintain a neutral-to-slightly-cautious allocation.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates: Officials Maintain Rate Cut Expectations but Stress Cautious Pace
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated the need for a 100-basis-point rate cut by 2026 and expressed preference for earlier action, while warning that excessive regulation could distort credit structures; Governor Goolsbee stated rates could be lowered but emphasized reluctance to move aggressively before clear evidence of inflation easing. Analysts note officials’ comments continue anchoring the path for rate cuts, yet the cautious signal—“not wanting to act prematurely or aggressively”—may temper excessive optimism in bond markets. This is near-term supportive for high-yield assets but may increase volatility.
Commodities & Geopolitics: Positive Progress in Iran-U.S. Geneva Talks Sends Crude Oil Prices Higher Then Lower
- The talks concluded with multiple parties describing “significant progress” and “near consensus”; technical-level discussions will be held next week in Vienna, followed by another round of negotiations scheduled at a later date. Brent crude surged intraday before giving back gains, settling near $71 per barrel. The positive developments have temporarily eased geopolitical risk premiums, yet uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions persists. Oil prices face near-term downward pressure but are unlikely to fall sharply; gold and other precious metals retain strong safe-haven appeal.
Macroeconomic Policy: Trump Administration Accelerates Efforts to Preserve Tariff Revenue
- Officials across multiple departments are developing legal strategies to retain billions of dollars in tariff revenue—even after the Supreme Court ruled certain tariffs “illegal.” These strategies include discouraging companies from seeking refunds, establishing new legal frameworks to legitimize tariffs, or partially waiving refund obligations. Such moves perpetuate trade policy uncertainty, potentially boosting import-driven inflation expectations and benefiting safe-haven assets like gold. Market participants should monitor responses from trading partners, particularly the EU.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: Traded sideways, closing at $5,173.79/oz amid mixed signals from easing geopolitical tensions and ongoing tariff uncertainty.
- Spot Silver: Moved in tandem with the broader precious metals complex, closing at $88.32/oz under technical pressure.
- WTI Crude: Peaked at $66.71 before retreating to $65.25, as positive Iran-U.S. talks alleviated supply concerns.
- U.S. Dollar Index: Traded with modest volatility, weighed down by a temporary rebound in risk sentiment.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Rose above $70,000 before pulling back to $67,244—trading in a range, with short-term moves influenced by risk appetite.
- ETH: Moved in line with major cryptocurrencies, down 2.02% over 24 hours to $2,015, with notable leveraged position adjustments.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: Fell 1.6% to $2.39 trillion, reflecting subdued market sentiment.
- Liquidations: $243 million liquidated across both long and short positions in the past 24 hours, indicating ongoing deleveraging.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 0.03% to 49,499.2 points, supported by defensive sectors.
- S&P 500: Down 0.54% to 6,908.86 points, failing to hold above the 7,000 threshold.
- Nasdaq Composite: Down 1.18% to 22,878.38 points, dragged significantly by tech-heavy weights.
Tech Giants’ Performance
- Microsoft (MSFT): Up 0.28% — Cloud business remains solid.
- Meta Platforms (META): Up 0.51% — Continued AI investment.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Down over 5% — Post-earnings pullback.
- Tesla (TSLA): Down over 2% — Sector-wide decline.
- Amazon (AMZN): Down 1.29% — Broad tech sector weakness.
- Alphabet (GOOG): Down 1.76% — Gemini progress failed to lift shares.
- Apple (AAPL): Down modestly 0.47% — New product expectations have yet to materialize. Key Takeaway: NVIDIA’s post-earnings selloff dragged down chipmakers and the broader tech sector. Investor concerns center on narrowing AI moats and diminishing returns on capital expenditures. Meanwhile, software stocks rose against the trend, driven by short squeezes.
Sector Watch: AI Application Software — Up over 4%
- Notable Stocks: Spotify (SPOT) up nearly 7%, AppLovin (APP) up over 5%, Salesforce (CRM) up over 4%.
- Catalyst: Short-covering fueled a short squeeze; accelerating adoption of AI tools boosted software stocks.
Rare-Earth Magnet Sector — Up over 2%
- Notable Stock: MP Materials (MP) up over 2%.
- Catalyst: Announcement of a $1.25 billion investment to build the largest rare-earth magnet manufacturing facility in the U.S., supported by domestic supply chain demand.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Dell Technologies (DELL) – Strong AI Server Guidance
Event Summary: Shares rose over 10% after-hours following earnings release. The company forecasts ~$50 billion in AI server revenue this fiscal year (up 103% YoY), adjusted EPS of ~$12.90, and total sales of ~$140 billion—significantly exceeding analyst estimates. Market Interpretation: Analysts view robust AI server demand as validation of Dell’s leadership in liquid cooling and edge computing, enhancing confidence in its long-term growth trajectory. Investment Implication: With accelerated capex in AI infrastructure, Dell still offers valuation upside; consider buying on post-earnings pullbacks.
2. Netflix (NFLX) – Withdrawal from Warner Bros. Discovery Bid
Event Summary: Announced after-hours withdrawal from its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, sending shares up over 9%. Market Interpretation: Analysts see this decision as prudent, avoiding high-leverage M&A risk and allowing focus on core streaming operations—better aligning with long-term shareholder value. Investment Implication: Strategic focus combined with content strength highlights Netflix’s resilience amid intensifying competition—suitable as a defensive growth holding.
3. Baidu (BIDU) – Rising Contribution from AI Businesses
Event Summary: Full-year revenue declined marginally 3% YoY; Q4 revenue of RMB 3.274 billion rose 5% QoQ, slightly beating expectations. AI-related new businesses generated over RMB 11 billion in Q4 revenue, accounting for 43% of non-advertising revenue; AI high-performance computing subscription revenue surged 143% YoY. Market Interpretation: Analysts expect high-growth AI cloud infrastructure to offset advertising headwinds, with visible signs of successful long-term transformation. Investment Implication: Continued expansion in AI revenue share remains key; watch Q1 guidance for validation of compute demand trends.
4. Broadcom (AVGO) – Shipment of 3.5D Chip Platform
Event Summary: Announced commencement of shipments for the industry’s first 2nm custom-compute SoC built on its 3.5D XDSiP platform, targeting at least one million units sold by 2027. Market Interpretation: Executive commentary reinforces confidence in the next-generation XPU platform, underscoring sustained strong demand for AI-custom chips. Investment Implication: Broadcom’s leadership in advanced packaging supports long-term earnings visibility—worth monitoring for order flow across the AI server supply chain.
5. MP Materials (MP) – Largest U.S. Rare-Earth Magnet Facility
Event Summary: Announced a >$1.25 billion investment to build a large-scale rare-earth magnet manufacturing campus in Texas, with full-capacity output projected at ~10,000 metric tons annually. Market Interpretation: Underpinned by U.S. domestic supply chain localization policies, rare-earth magnets’ strategic importance has become increasingly evident. Investment Implication: Dual catalysts—geopolitical and policy-driven—enhance MP Materials’ long-term growth certainty.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
- Positive progress in Iran-U.S. talks eased geopolitical risks, leading to a short-term oil price correction.
- Analysts debunked rumors claiming “Jane Street sells Bitcoin daily at 10 a.m.”, emphasizing Bitcoin’s resistance to manipulation.
- American Bitcoin Corp (ABC), a Bitcoin mining firm backed by the Trump family, released Q4 financial results showing a $59 million loss for the quarter.
- Analysts noted Bitcoin’s rally met resistance at the $68,000 trendline, signaling the bear market is not yet over.
- U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 came in at 212,000, below the 215,000 forecast and revised up from the prior week’s 206,000 to 208,000. Fed officials reaffirmed the 2026 rate-cut path while stressing pace.
- HyperLend: Native token HPL has launched on Hyperliquid.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Economic Data Release Schedule
| 08:30 | U.S. | MoM PPI | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:30 | U.S. | Core MoM PPI | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 09:45 | U.S. | Chicago PMI | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Upcoming Key Events
- Event: Iran-U.S. Technical-Level Discussions (Vienna, next week) — Monitor follow-up on nuclear issues and oil price reaction
- Event: Apple Product Launch Week — Focus on hardware-AI integration progress
Bitget Research Viewpoint: Yesterday, U.S. equities experienced another “sell-the-news” reaction following NVIDIA’s earnings, with the Nasdaq falling over 1% and dragging down the broader tech sector. Concerns over diminishing returns on AI capital expenditures and narrowing AI moats dominated sentiment. Oil prices spiked then retreated amid positive Iran-U.S. talks, while precious metals maintained resilience amid tariff-related uncertainty. The U.S. dollar traded with modest volatility, reflecting the tug-of-war between improving risk sentiment and evolving monetary policy expectations. Goldman Sachs and other investment banks note that while short-term tech valuations remain pressured, long-term AI demand remains intact. They recommend accumulating semiconductor and software leaders on dips, while also considering gold as a hedge against trade friction. Overall, the recommendation remains neutral-to-cautious.
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