Gold goes wild, crypto crashes: Bull market under scrutiny amid $15 billion seizures and 100% tariffs
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Gold goes wild, crypto crashes: Bull market under scrutiny amid $15 billion seizures and 100% tariffs
Macro political risks have become an unavoidable top-level variable for the crypto market, and the path to the next bull market will be more turbulent.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.63 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.9%, or $2.13 trillion. Stablecoin market cap stands at $307.1 billion, up 0.95% over the past seven days, showing continued growth in stablecoin supply, with USDT making up 59.1%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose: TAO gained 44.64% over seven days, MORPHO increased by 35.26%, IP rose 21.8%, TRAC surged 54.64%, and RSR climbed 47.38%.
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.225 billion; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $311.8 million.
Market Outlook (October 20–24):
The current RSI index is 42.95 (neutral range), Fear & Greed Index is 22 (lower than last week, indicating fear), and Altseason Index is 37.
BTC core range: $104,000–112,000
ETH core range: $3,600–4,100
SOL core range: $175–210
Markets rebounded early in the week following Powell’s comments suggesting “soon to stop balance sheet reduction, future rate cuts likely,” but began declining in the second half.
Has the bull market foundation been shaken?
Not yet fully invalidated: The core drivers of this bull market—such as shifts in global monetary structure and institutional adoption—are structural. A short-term shock triggered by geopolitical events alone is insufficient to reverse the long-term trend. However, the path has changed: This incident has taught all investors that macro political risk has become an unavoidable top-level variable in the crypto market. The road ahead will be more winding.
For short-term traders:
Low leverage, high flexibility: In the current high-volatility environment, prioritize BTC and ETH, adopt a range-trading strategy, closely monitor news developments, and focus attention on Trump's tweets, White House announcements, and official responses from China and the U.S. Market reactions to news releases will be swift and intense.
For medium- to long-term investors:
Dollar-cost averaging: For those bullish on crypto long-term, this sharp drop can be seen as a "golden pit." Consider starting periodic purchases near key support levels (e.g., BTC $102,000, ETH $3,700), spread entries across price points, and avoid going all-in at once.
Existing holders: If your position is not heavily leveraged, you may hold patiently. If your position is large and your cost basis is high, consider trimming some holdings when prices rebound to resistance levels to reduce risk and psychological pressure.
Understanding the Present
Recap of the Week's Major Events
1. On October 13, Binance compensated affected users $283 million for assets like USDE that depegged; the spot "zero price" was merely a display issue;
2. On October 13, prediction market platform Kalshi partnered with Pyth Network as its latest data provider, transmitting its prediction market data to over 100 blockchains;
3. On October 15, Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned that signs of further weakness were emerging in the U.S. labor market, suggesting he may be ready to support another rate cut later this month;
4. On October 16, Eric Trump confirmed plans to launch a real estate tokenization project via World Liberty Financial, marking deeper application of crypto technology in real estate;
5. On October 17, $710 million in liquidations occurred across the market in the past 24 hours, affecting 217,395 individuals globally, including $508 million in long positions and $202 million in short positions. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid - BTC-USD, valued at $20.4274 million;
6. On October 16, Coinbase launched Coinbase Business, a stablecoin payment platform enabling enterprises to send and receive USDC. It aims to streamline vendor payments, eliminate chargebacks, and offer seamless API integration to help businesses scale efficiently;
7. U.S. Department of Justice completes largest seizure in history: On October 14, the U.S. DOJ announced criminal charges against Chiau Chih (founder of Cambodia's太子Group) and successfully seized 127,271 bitcoins under his control (worth approximately $15 billion), marking the largest judicial seizure of bitcoin globally. This demonstrates state power to control on-chain assets;
8. U.S. government shutdown continues: As of October 16, the U.S. government shutdown persists, delaying the release of key economic data, increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, and further dampening market risk appetite, including in crypto;
9. Safe-haven funds flow into gold: Driven by escalating trade tensions, concerns over bank credit risks, and the U.S. government shutdown, risk aversion spiked, leading to massive inflows into gold. Spot gold prices broke above $4,380 per ounce this week, setting consecutive new highs.
Macroeconomic Overview
1. On October 15, Powell indicated the Fed might stop shrinking its balance sheet within the next few months. He stated during the meeting that the central bank's long-standing plan is to halt the process once reserves are slightly above the level deemed sufficient;
2. On October 18, according to the Fed Funds Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October reached 94.8%.
ETFs
Data shows that between October 13 and October 17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $1.225 billion. As of October 17, GBTC (Grayscale) has had cumulative outflows of $24.453 billion, currently holding $18.475 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $85.778 billion. The total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $144.748 billion.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $311.8 million.
Looking Ahead
Event Calendar
1. The 2025 Shanghai Blockchain Week will open in October, with the "11th Blockchain Global Summit," hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Labs, serving as the centerpiece event on October 23;
2. Blockchain Life 2025 will take place in Dubai, UAE, from October 28 to 29, 2025;
3. Bitcoin MENA will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) on December 8–9;
4. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will take place in Abu Dhabi from December 11 to 13.
Project Updates
1. Ethereal will launch its mainnet Alpha version on October 20;
2. HyperSwap tweeted “October 20,” possibly signaling a TGE on that date;
3. Bluwhale AI (BLUAI) will conduct its TGE on October 21;
4. Meteora (MET) will conduct its TGE on October 23.
Key Events
1. The U.S. Treasury is seeking public input on the implementation of the GENIUS Act, with comments due by October 20;
2. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24 at 20:30 Beijing time.
Token Unlocks
1. LayerZero (ZERO) will unlock 25.32 million tokens on October 20, worth approximately $43.7 million, representing 7.86% of circulating supply;
2. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 8.35 million tokens on October 20, worth about $8.71 million, or 3.06% of circulating supply;
3. Scroll (SCR) will unlock 82.5 million tokens on October 22, worth approximately $14.08 million, or 43.42% of circulating supply.
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