July PCE climbs to new highs, September market start may face pressure
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July PCE climbs to new highs, September market start may face pressure
Short-term traders should remain flexible, focus on technical analysis, strictly adhere to stop-loss rules, and may consider lightly shorting on retracement resistance opportunities.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.78 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.2% ($2.16 trillion). The stablecoin market cap is $283.4 billion, up 2.62% over the past 7 days, with USDT representing 59.13%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion rose while most declined: CRO gained 98.1% over 7 days, M rose 60.29%, PYTH increased 59.48%, B climbed 23.75%, and QTUM advanced 14.1%.
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $440 million; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.082 billion.
Market Outlook (September 1–5):
The current RSI stands at 48.59, indicating a neutral-to-weak bias. The Fear & Greed Index is at 40 (lower than last week). The crypto market is expected to remain volatile with downward pressure, facing potential pullbacks.
BTC core range: $108,650 – $113,500; risk of testing $100,000 remains
ETH core range: $4,400 – $4,800; support at $4,400 is critical
Short-term traders should stay agile, focus on technical analysis, strictly enforce stop-losses, and consider light short positions when rallies stall. Long-term investors should remain patient—any market correction could present an opportunity to gradually accumulate high-quality assets via dollar-cost averaging near key support levels.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Recap
1. On August 24, OKX CEO Star announced on social media that "X Layer will continue long-term development and launch a $100 million X Layer Ecosystem Fund to support global builders in creating the next wave of on-chain applications. Priority will be given to teams with long-term vision and technical strength, not short-term profit-driven token projects";
2. On August 25, data from Infra showed that Raydium has spent a total of $196.3 million repurchasing 71 million RAY tokens, representing 26.4% of circulating supply;
3. On August 25, according to prnewswire, U.S.-listed company Sharps Technology, Inc. (STSS) announced it is raising $400 million to support its digital asset treasury strategy centered on Solana’s native asset SOL;
4. On August 26, Axios reported that Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, received investment from Donald Trump Jr.'s venture fund. Trump Jr., who joined 1789 Capital last year, invested tens of millions into Polymarket. He will also join Polymarket’s advisory board;
5. On August 29, Frax Finance founder Sam Kazemian announced he has joined Stable, a new blockchain project built around Tether’s USDT, as Chief Technology Officer, while continuing to serve as CEO of Frax;
6. On August 29, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is about to release guidance clarifying its Foreign Board of Trade (FBOT) registration rules, offering non-U.S. platforms a legal pathway for U.S. users to trade on their platforms.
Macroeconomic
1. On August 29, CME's "Fed Watch" data indicated a 16.9% probability the Fed will hold rates steady in September and an 83.1% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut;
2. On August 29, the U.S. July Core PCE Price Index YoY came in at 2.9%, the highest since February 2025. Expected: 2.90%, prior: 2.80%;
3. On August 28, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 were 229,000, below the expected 230,000 and revised from a previous 235,000 (adjusted to 234,000).
ETF
Data shows that between August 25 and August 29, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of $440 million. As of August 29, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $23.891 billion, currently holding $19.341 billion; IBIT (BlackRock) holds $80.725 billion. Total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: $141.314 billion.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had net inflows of $1.082 billion.
Anticipating the Future
Event Preview
1. Taipei Blockchain Week 2025 will take place in Taipei from September 4 to 6;
2. EDCON 2025 will be held in Osaka, Japan, from September 16 to 19, bringing together members of the global Ethereum community to discuss protocol upgrades, ecosystem growth, and the future of Web3;
3. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will be hosted in South Korea from September 22 to 28.
Project Updates
1. Tether announced it will discontinue support for USDT on the Omni, Bitcoin Cash SLP, Kusama, EOS, and Algorand networks effective September 1, 2025. The move aims to optimize infrastructure, align with actual usage trends, and concentrate resources on blockchains with higher utility and developer activity;
2. The deadline for claiming COOK rewards from mETH Protocol's second-season Methamorphosis campaign is September 2, 2025;
3. Ondo Finance will launch tokenized stocks on September 3. Previously, Ondo Finance announced the upcoming launch of Ondo Global Markets, its on-chain U.S. equities platform, this summer.
Key Events
1. Eric Trump, son of former President Donald Trump, plans to attend Metaplanet’s shareholder meeting on September 1. Metaplanet, a Japanese publicly listed company, previously appointed Eric Trump to its Strategic Advisory Committee;
2. On September 4 at 20:15, the U.S. will release August ADP employment change (in thousands);
3. On September 4 at 20:30, the U.S. will report initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending August 30;
4. On September 5 at 20:30, the U.S. will release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (in thousands) for August;
5. On September 5 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the August unemployment rate.
Token Unlocks
1. Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens on September 1, worth approximately $161 million, representing 1.25% of circulating supply;
2. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on September 2, valued at around $27.51 million, or 0.64% of circulating supply;
3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on September 5, worth about $12.81 million, or 1.27% of circulating supply;
4. Movement (MOVE) will unlock 50 million tokens on September 9, valued at approximately $6.18 million, representing 1.89% of circulating supply.
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