Bitcoin may be approaching $200,000 per coin
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Bitcoin may be approaching $200,000 per coin
Target price of $190,000, with potential upside of 67%.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Tiger Research
Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Summary:
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Institutional adoption of Bitcoin accelerates: U.S. 401(k) investment channels open, ETFs and corporate entities continue large-scale accumulation
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Best environment since 2021: Global liquidity at historic highs, major economies in rate-cutting mode
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Market shifting from retail-driven to institutionally driven: Despite overheating signals, institutional buying strongly supports downside risks
Global Liquidity Expansion, Institutional Accumulation, and Regulatory Tailwinds Drive Bitcoin Adoption
Three core drivers are currently powering the Bitcoin market: 1) Expanding global liquidity, 2) Accelerating institutional capital inflows, and 3) Crypto-friendly regulatory environment. The simultaneous effect of these three factors has created the strongest upward momentum since the 2021 bull run. Bitcoin is up approximately 80% year-on-year. In the near to medium term, there are limited factors that could disrupt this upward trend.
On global liquidity, a key point is that M2 money supply across major economies has surpassed $90 trillion, reaching an all-time high. Historically, M2 growth and Bitcoin prices have shown similar directional patterns; if current monetary expansion continues, further appreciation remains possible (Chart 1).
Additionally, pressure from President Trump for rate cuts, along with the Fed's dovish stance, has opened the path for excess liquidity to flow into alternative assets, with Bitcoin being a primary beneficiary.
Meanwhile, institutional accumulation of Bitcoin is occurring at an unprecedented pace. U.S. spot ETFs hold 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of total supply, while Strategy (MSTR) alone holds 629,376 BTC (worth $71.2 billion). Crucially, these purchases represent structural strategies rather than one-off transactions. Strategy’s continuous buying via convertible bond issuance particularly signals the formation of a new layer of demand.
Furthermore, the executive order issued by the Trump administration on August 7 represents a game-changing factor. Opening Bitcoin investment to 401(k) retirement accounts could tap into an $8.9 trillion capital pool. Even a conservative 1% allocation would mean $89 billion—approximately 4% of Bitcoin’s current market cap. Given the long-term holding nature of 401(k) funds, this development should not only support price appreciation but also help reduce volatility. It marks a clear shift of Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a core institutional holding.
Institutions Drive Trading Volume, Retail Activity Retreats
The Bitcoin network is currently reorganizing around large investors. Daily transaction count dropped 41% from 660,000 in October 2024 to 388,000 in March 2025, yet the average amount of Bitcoin transferred per transaction has actually increased. Growing large-volume transactions from institutions like Strategy have expanded average transaction size. This marks a shift in the Bitcoin network from a "small, high-frequency" to a "large, low-frequency" transaction model (Chart 2).
However, fundamental indicators show imbalanced growth. While institutional restructuring clearly drives Bitcoin network value higher, transaction counts and active user numbers have yet to recover (Chart 3).
Fundamental improvement will require ecosystem activation through BTCFi (Bitcoin-based decentralized financial services) and other initiatives, but these remain in early stages and will take time to generate meaningful impact.
Overbought, But Institutions Provide Floor Support
On-chain indicators show some overheating signals, but significant downside risk remains limited. The MVRV-Z indicator (measuring current price relative to investors' average cost basis) is in the overheated zone at 2.49, having recently spiked to 2.7, warning of a potential near-term pullback (Chart 4).
However, aSOPR (1.019, tracking investors’ realized profit/loss) and NUPL (0.558, measuring overall market unrealized profit/loss) both remain in stable ranges, indicating overall market health (Chart 5, 6).
In short, while the current price is relatively high compared to the average cost basis (MVRV-Z), actual selling occurs at moderate profit levels (aSOPR), and the broader market has not yet entered an excessively profitable zone (NUPL).
This dynamic is supported by institutional buying power. Continuous accumulation from ETFs and entities like Strategy provides solid price support. A short-term pullback is possible, but a trend reversal appears unlikely.
Target Price $190,000, Potential Upside 67%
Our TVM (Time Value Model) approach arrives at a $190,000 target price using the following framework: We set a base price of $135,000 (removing extreme fear and greed sentiment from the current price), then apply a +3.5% fundamentals multiplier and a +35% macro multiplier.
The fundamentals multiplier reflects improvements in network quality: despite fewer transactions, transaction values are higher. The macro multiplier captures three powerful forces: expanding global liquidity (e.g., M2 exceeding $90 trillion), accelerating institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs holding 1.3 million BTC), and an improved regulatory environment (e.g., 401(k) eligibility opening up an $8.9 trillion funding pool).
From current levels, this implies 67% upside potential. While the target is aggressive, it reflects the structural transformation underway as Bitcoin shifts from a speculative asset to a portfolio allocation within institutional investing.
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