U.S. stablecoin GENIUS Act progressing steadily, BTC hits new all-time high｜Hotcoin Research Market Insights
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U.S. stablecoin GENIUS Act progressing steadily, BTC hits new all-time high｜Hotcoin Research Market Insights
This week saw continued issuance of stablecoins, along with significant inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—the largest weekly inflow since January.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
The current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55% at $2.06 trillion. The stablecoin market cap stands at $245.9 billion, up 1.1% over the past seven days, with USDT representing 62.26%.
This week, BTC prices showed a volatile upward trend, currently trading at $110,915; ETH also rose with volatility, now at $2,670.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most increased while a minority declined: DOG surged 54.14% over 7 days, MOO DENG rose 40.66%, HYPE gained 33.48%, and WLD increased 32.44%.
This week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $2.75 billion; net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs reached $247.7 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on May 23 was 76 (higher than last week), indicating greedy sentiment throughout the week.
Market Outlook:
Stablecoins continued to expand this week, with large inflows recorded in U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—the highest weekly inflow since January. BTC broke its all-time high, rising from $103,520 to $111,313, marking a 7-day gain of 4.37%. The RSI index stood at 44.88, indicating neutrality, while the Altcoin Season Index was 18. This new high was driven by institutional “stockpiling” rather than community momentum. Market sentiment remains greedy. On Friday, markets briefly dipped following Trump’s statement suggesting a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1 before gradually recovering. Weekends are typically quiet trading periods, so the current pullback appears normal.
The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is only 5.3%, lower than last week, suggesting expectations for just one or two rate cuts this year. However, steady progress on the U.S. stablecoin GENIUS Act provided strong market support. David Sacks, the crypto czar, stated in a CNBC interview that if the GENIUS stablecoin bill passes, it could generate trillions of dollars in demand for U.S. Treasuries. He expects the stablecoin market to rapidly grow from its current unregulated size of $200 billion to several trillion once a legal framework is established. Tether already holds nearly $120 billion in U.S. Treasuries, surpassing Germany as the 19th-largest holder. The passage of stablecoin legislation will mark another celebration point in this bull run.
Understanding the Present
Review of Major Events This Week
1. On May 19, on-chain data analyst Murphy analyzed BTC distribution concentration, noting that between May 7 and May 14, BTC concentration dropped sharply from a peak of 15.5% to 8.2% within just seven days. This suggests price movement has moved away from concentrated holding zones, and further price increases are likely if concentration continues to decline;
2. On May 20, according to The Block, Anza, a development studio spun off from Solana Labs, announced what they called the “largest-ever change to Solana's core protocol.” As per the announcement, the high-throughput Layer 1 blockchain will adopt a completely redesigned underlying architecture named Alpenglow;
3. On May 20, FOX Business journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the U.S. Senate voted to approve the cloture motion allowing the GENIUS Act to enter formal debate. At least 15 Democratic lawmakers changed their stance to vote in favor, including Cortez Masto, Adam Schiff, and Mark Warner. The bill now proceeds to full deliberation but has only passed the cloture motion—not the bill itself. The GENIUS Act will next undergo debate and amendment procedures in the Senate;
4. On May 20, official sources announced that Jupiter has fully integrated trading from time.fun, a time tokenization platform. Time.fun enables buying and selling time from creators, influencers, and experts, with all tokens tradable instantly on Jupiter;
5. On May 20, official announcements confirmed that Farcaster verification is即将 launching. Users can verify their accounts by linking two social accounts (X, phone number, or GitHub) and holding at least $25 worth of assets in their wallet;
6. On May 20, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that BlackRock now holds more Bitcoin than anyone except Satoshi Nakamoto, reaching 57% of its total holdings. Based on current trends, BlackRock is expected to become the world’s largest Bitcoin holder by late summer next year;
7. On May 20, Robinhood submitted a 42-page proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), advocating for a federal-level “RWA tokenization” framework aimed at modernizing U.S. securities markets;
8. On May 22, according to 8marketcap data, Bitcoin surpassed Amazon to become the fifth-largest asset globally by market cap;
9. On May 22, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the stablecoin GENIUS Act passed the debate motion with 69 votes in favor and 31 opposed, advancing to the revision stage;
10. On May 22, Lookonchain monitoring revealed that Cetus suffered a hack, losing over $260 million;
11. On May 23, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the SEC decided to delay decisions today on Bitwise and CoinShares’ XRP spot ETFs, as well as CoinShares’ Litecoin spot ETF, and also delayed finalizing rules on physical Bitcoin redemptions for Fidelity’s FBTC. However, the SEC formally accepted Canary Capital’s application for a TRX staking ETF.
Macroeconomics
1. On May 19, according to Bitcoin For Corporations, UK-listed company Vinanz purchased 16.9 BTC at an average price of $103,341, totaling approximately $1.75 million;
2. On May 20, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations;
3. On May 20, China’s central bank reduced the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) from 3.1% and 3.6% to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.
4. On May 21, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June is 5.3%, with a 94.7% chance of rates being held unchanged.
5. On May 22, Japan's 40-year government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 3.675%, hitting its highest level since 2007;
ETF
Data shows that during the period from May 19 to May 23, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $2.75 billion. As of May 23, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $23.033 billion and currently holds $20.426 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $70.058 billion. The total market value of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $134.838 billion.
Net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs amounted to $247.7 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Preview
1. Bitcoin 2025 will be held in Las Vegas, USA from May 27 to 29;
2. NFT NYC 2026 will take place in New York, USA from June 23 to 25, 2025;
3. Permissionless IV will be hosted in New York, USA from June 24 to 26, 2025;
4. EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France from June 30 to July 3, 2025.
Project Updates
1. Ethereum developers indicate that fusaka-devnet-0 is expected to launch on May 26;
2. The eUSDe pool launched by Ethena Labs (in collaboration with Ethereal) will mature on May 29, offering 50x Ethena rewards and Ethereal points;
3. The lvlUSD and slvlUSD market, a collaboration between Pendle and LevelUSD, matures on May 29, 2025. lvlUSD is the protocol’s native non-yielding stablecoin backed by USDT and USDC, while slvlUSD is a yield-bearing staked stablecoin earning returns from base yields on Aave V3 deposits and re-staking yields from Aave aTokens;
4. FTX will begin distributing over $5 billion in funds to creditors starting May 30;
5. Ether.fi’s fifth season of Ethereum restaking will run from February 1, 2025 to May 31, 2025, with rewards including ETHFI tokens (at least 10 million), partner tokens, and King Protocol rewards;
6. The final 25% of Mint’s community airdrop on the Ethereum L2 network will unlock on May 31;
7. Treasure Chain, part of the gaming ecosystem Treasure DAO, will shut down at 3:00 AM Beijing time on May 31. Holders must bridge all ETH, MAGIC, SMOL, and NFTs cross-chain before the end of May.
Key Events
1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has opened public comment on Canary Funds’ Litecoin ETF. The review focuses on whether the ETF proposal meets regulatory requirements to prevent fraud and market manipulation. Public comments are due by May 26, 2025, and rebuttal comments by June 9, 2025;
2. Kraken sent confirmation emails to FTX customers stating that the next round of FTX compensation distributions will occur on May 30, 2025, covering both creditors with claims under $50,000 and those above $50,000;
3. On May 28, U.S. Vice President Vance will deliver a speech at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference;
4. On May 29, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May monetary policy meeting.
Token Unlocks
1. Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 195 million tokens on May 25, valued at approximately $7.21 million, representing 1.95% of circulating supply;
2. Axelar (ALX) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on May 27, valued at about $5.33 million, or 1.12% of circulating supply;
3. Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 21.02 million tokens on May 28, worth around $3.66 million, accounting for 2.1% of circulating supply;
4. Renzo (REZ) will unlock 423 million tokens on May 29, valued at approximately $6.93 million, making up 4.24% of circulating supply;
About Us
Hotcoin Research, serving as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, is dedicated to providing global cryptocurrency investors with professional, in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights. We have built a three-pillar service system of "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking," delivering precise market interpretations and practical strategies through deep industry trend analysis, multi-dimensional evaluation of promising projects, and round-the-clock market volatility monitoring. Supported by our bi-weekly "Top Coins Selection" strategy livestreams and daily "Blockchain Headlines" briefings, we cater to investors at all levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analytics models and extensive industry networks, we consistently empower novice investors to build cognitive frameworks and help institutional clients capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
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