Huobi Growth Academy | Cryptocurrency Market Macro Research Report: Post-Bull Market Era, Trade War Shadows Fade, Potential Rebound in Second Half of Year
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Huobi Growth Academy | Cryptocurrency Market Macro Research Report: Post-Bull Market Era, Trade War Shadows Fade, Potential Rebound in Second Half of Year
Only by identifying sectors and assets with stable growth within the context of a diversely evolving global landscape can one grasp the core logic of the "post-bull market era."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Huobi Growth Academy
Chapter One: The Global Crypto Market Landscape in the Post-Bull Era
Since the first half of 2025, the cryptocurrency market has entered a "post-bull" phase, characterized by high volatility and structural divergence. Although Bitcoin reached new highs driven by the halving cycle, it soon entered a correction phase. Combined with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy failing to shift toward easing as expected and escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions, the crypto market has once again been overshadowed by macroeconomic uncertainty.
This period does not represent a traditional bear market nor a continuation of the broad-based gains seen during the bull run, but rather a transitional phase following a cyclical peak. Risk appetite has declined and capital activity weakened, yet there has been no systemic liquidity crisis akin to that of 2022. Core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to attract institutional accumulation. On-chain activity has slightly declined but not deteriorated significantly. Meanwhile, emerging narrative sectors—such as AI-focused blockchains, restaking, and meme coin ecosystems—continue to draw speculative capital, creating a scenario of "strong themes amid weak market conditions."
From a macro perspective, the global economy in the first half of 2025 exhibited a complex state of "unstable disinflation and growth pressure." The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance amid high interest rates, leading to divergent market expectations about whether rate cuts would begin within the year. This uncertainty over the interest rate path continues to constrain the upside potential of risk assets. A new round of trade friction between China and the U.S., centered on new energy, high-tech, and digital infrastructure, has emerged as an additional variable. While crypto assets are not directly involved, heightened geopolitical risks have increased market volatility and added further strain on investor sentiment.
Notably, the cryptocurrency industry’s degree of globalization and resilience against disruptions has significantly improved compared to the past. In 2024, multiple jurisdictions—including Hong Kong, Japan, and the UAE—rolled out supportive policies promoting crypto ETF listings, stablecoin regulation, and accelerated operation of Web3 sandboxes, providing traditional capital with clearer, compliant pathways for participation. This international support has partially offset the negative impact of tightening regulations in the U.S., resulting in a market ecosystem characterized by "local downturns but global balance."
Overall, the "post-bull" era does not signify the end of the bull market, but rather a transition into a new stage—where market participants place greater emphasis on value assessment, practical use cases, and long-term capital allocation. In the short term, macro factors will continue to drive fluctuations in market expectations. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, the market is at a critical juncture transitioning toward the next technology-application resonance cycle. The core logic of the "post-bull era" lies precisely in identifying sectors and assets with sustainable growth potential amid this diverse global evolution.
Chapter Two: The Fading Shadow of Trade Wars and Their Macroeconomic Impact
In the first half of 2025, renewed trade friction between China and the U.S. became a significant source of global market disruption, particularly against the backdrop of the approaching U.S. election and intensified policy博弈 (strategic maneuvering), focusing on sensitive areas such as new energy, AI chips, critical rare earths, and export controls on digital technologies. However, compared to the peak trade war years of 2018–2020, this latest round of disputes carries more "symbolic significance," with relatively mild actual economic impacts and diminishing structural consequences, reflecting a trend of gradual "waning."
On one hand, the Biden administration’s ability to impose new tariffs is clearly constrained by domestic inflation pressures and voter interests. Amid persistently high interest rates and living costs, substantially increasing tariffs on Chinese goods would further raise import prices and undermine consumer recovery. As such, in an election year, tariff measures are used more tactically as symbolic gestures rather than strategic escalations. China, for its part, has maintained a rational and restrained posture, prioritizing export stability and foreign investment attraction, refraining from large-scale retaliatory actions, thus keeping trade tensions within a state of "limited confrontation."
From a macroeconomic data standpoint, although the trade friction triggered a temporary rise in risk-averse sentiment, it did not lead to a systemic repricing of global financial risks. After brief shocks, indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq quickly stabilized. The U.S. dollar index and gold remained in strong, volatile ranges, indicating that market participants had already priced in expectations around these disputes. Cryptocurrencies, after a short dip, swiftly recovered—demonstrating notably enhanced resilience compared to previous episodes.
For the crypto market, the indirect effects of trade wars manifest across three dimensions:
First, a temporary contraction in risk appetite. Trade tensions can briefly erode market confidence, boosting safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries, while volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies may be sold off as "liquidity reservoirs." Second, distortions in cross-border capital flows. Trade and tech sanctions often coincide with tighter financial scrutiny and enhanced regulation of cross-border payments, prompting some capital to shift via stablecoins or BTC on-chain, increasing on-chain transaction volumes and boosting interest in crypto assets across parts of Asia. Third, a strengthened long-term de-dollarization trend. Trade conflicts deepen emerging markets’ skepticism toward the stability of the U.S. dollar system, driving more countries to explore cross-border settlement using central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized assets—indirectly elevating the strategic importance of public blockchains like Ethereum in global financial infrastructure.
Notably, since Q2 2025, as global inflation gradually cools and central banks across Europe and Asia begin preparing for rate cuts, expectations for a Fed pivot have risen. Coupled with a return to rational trade negotiations, the crypto market’s sensitivity to geopolitical tensions is declining. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have stabilized, signaling that institutional investors increasingly view trade risks as "background noise" rather than decisive variables.
Overall, while the current trade tensions have caused periodic emotional disturbances, their real impact on the crypto market has significantly diminished. The global macro environment is transitioning from "the tail end of tightening" to "moderate recovery," and the risk-pricing logic of the crypto market is shifting from "geopolitical tension" to "interest rate inflection point." At this stage, macro factors remain important—but the true drivers of the market may quietly be returning to internal cycles of technological innovation and on-chain ecosystem evolution.
Chapter Three: Potential Drivers of Market Rebound in the Second Half
After being suppressed in the first half of 2025 by global macro conditions, trade tensions, and crypto regulatory policies, the cryptocurrency market has begun showing signs of rebound. The potential for recovery in the second half stems from several key drivers working in concert to create favorable conditions for market revival.
3.1 Changes in the Interest Rate Cycle and the Return of Risk Appetite
In the first half of 2025, the global economy gradually moved beyond the post-pandemic high-inflation environment, with major central banks adjusting monetary policy. Notably, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slowed their pace of rate hikes, and markets widely expect a rate-cutting cycle to begin in the second half. This trend has profound implications for the crypto market. First, a low-rate environment typically reduces returns on traditional financial assets, encouraging capital to flow into higher-risk, higher-return categories. Second, lower rates may prompt institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to increase allocations to crypto assets in pursuit of better yields, thereby pushing up prices of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Moreover, as the U.S. government and other economies seek to stimulate economic activity through monetary easing, crypto assets—as an "alternative investment class"—could become integrated into mainstream capital markets, attracting more institutional and retail participation.
3.2 Ongoing Innovation and Expansion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Although DeFi underwent a complex market adjustment over the past two years, with continued technological maturation and expanding use cases, the DeFi ecosystem is poised for a new breakout in the second half of 2025. Advances in Layer 2 solutions, cross-chain interoperability, and privacy-preserving technologies have significantly improved scalability, cost-efficiency, and security, drawing greater institutional involvement.
Particularly in decentralized lending, derivatives trading, and synthetic assets, DeFi is increasingly penetrating the "gray zones" of traditional finance. For instance, innovative DeFi protocols now allow institutions to hedge via on-chain derivatives, while investors gain access to markets through more flexible and lower-cost mechanisms. This growth potential could fuel a structural rebound in the crypto market during the second half.
3.3 Continued Institutional Investor Participation
The entry of institutional investors remains one of the most critical factors in the maturation of the crypto market. From Bitcoin ETFs to ETH futures, and increasingly more institutional funds accumulating crypto assets, institutional inflows bring not only more capital but also robust risk management frameworks. As regulatory frameworks become clearer and capital markets progressively open, more traditional financial institutions are expected to engage in crypto investment and custody services.
Additionally, large enterprises—including payment giants, internet platforms, and investment banks—are recognizing the strategic value of crypto assets in diversified portfolios. This not only expands the overall market liquidity pool but also signals the gradual mainstreaming of crypto into traditional finance. With growing institutional recognition and investment in the second half, momentum for a market rebound will strengthen further.
3.4 Breakthroughs and Maturation of Blockchain Technology Applications
The long-term development of the crypto market depends not just on price movements, but fundamentally on real-world applications of blockchain technology. In 2025, significant progress has been made in deploying blockchain across finance, supply chains, healthcare, copyright management, and other fields. Particularly in cross-border payments, smart contracts, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), blockchain is breaking down traditional industry barriers, accelerating the scale and maturity of crypto markets.
The successful implementation of these applications—especially in fintech and commercial sectors—will further boost demand for crypto assets. In the second half of 2025, as blockchain technology achieves new breakthroughs, its role in the real economy will become even more prominent, supporting market recovery and rebound.
Amid the convergence of these factors, the crypto market in the second half of 2025 holds strong rebound potential. Market recovery could become increasingly evident, especially under the combined support of institutional participation, technological advancement, and a global shift toward monetary easing—opening broader development prospects for the crypto sector.
Chapter Four: Divergence Trends Among Major Chains and Assets
4.1 Redefining the "Safe-Haven" Attributes of Bitcoin and Ethereum
During this period of macro turmoil, Bitcoin has once again been redefined by the market as "digital gold" and an inflation hedge. Especially amid widening divergence in global central bank policies and frequent geopolitical conflicts, BTC has demonstrated relative resilience.
Ethereum, meanwhile, is increasingly seen as a "digital financial platform." With improvements in L2 scalability, maturation of restaking mechanisms, and explosive growth in data availability (DA) layers, Ethereum’s value proposition is evolving from "gas fee revenue" toward becoming foundational "infrastructure for on-chain economic operations." Going forward, Bitcoin may assume stronger characteristics of a global reserve asset, while Ethereum could host more Web3 infrastructure and financial innovation.
4.2 Solana and the Meme Experiment on "High-Performance Chains"
Solana experienced a surge in meme-driven speculation and on-chain innovation from late 2023 to early 2024. Its high TPS, strong user engagement, and low gas fees made it a popular public chain for meme coins and emerging DApp deployments. However, as the market adjusted, capital and projects began to differentiate. Substantive Solana-based projects—such as Jupiter and Tensor—are now distinguishing themselves from pure meme tokens, marking Solana’s transition into a phase of deeper ecosystem development. Similar trends are unfolding on chains like Base, Sui, and Aptos, all facing the challenge of ecological consolidation after their hype peaks.
4.3 Layer 2 and Cross-Chain Technologies: Multi-Chain Synergy Becomes the Norm
Ethereum Layer 2 solutions represented by Arbitrum and Optimism have significantly improved transaction efficiency and reduced costs, making on-chain user experiences comparable to centralized apps. As ZK Rollup technologies mature—such as zkSync and Starknet—the synergistic effect of multi-chain coexistence and cross-chain liquidity protocols (e.g., LayerZero, Wormhole) will grow stronger. In the future, users will care less about "which chain" and more about usability, security, and sufficient liquidity. This shift creates vast opportunities for cross-chain assets, unified wallets, and liquidity aggregation protocols.
Overall, in the second half of 2025, the divergence among crypto assets and blockchains will become more pronounced. As technology advances and market demands evolve, multiple public chains will competitively capture market share, and the application scenarios of various digital assets will expand. This divergence trend not only drives diversified development across asset classes but also accelerates the overall maturation and refinement of the market structure.
Chapter Five: Outlook and Strategic Recommendations – Can a New Rally Emerge in the Second Half?
As 2025 unfolds, the crypto market—after earlier turbulence and adjustments—has seen a gradual shift toward more positive expectations. Looking ahead to the second half, whether the market can enter a new rally phase will depend closely on macroeconomic developments, blockchain technological progress, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts. Against this backdrop, we offer the following strategic recommendations to help market participants seize future investment opportunities.
5.1 Key Drivers: Macroeconomic Recovery, Technological Progress, and Capital Flows
To assess whether a new market rally is possible, several key drivers must be clearly understood:
Macroeconomic Recovery: As the global economy recovers from post-pandemic recession, monetary and fiscal policies in various countries may turn accommodative. In particular, looser monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe could channel more capital into the crypto market. Additionally, amid rising uncertainty in global financial markets and increased volatility in traditional assets, more investors are turning to crypto as a hedge.
Technological Innovation and Network Upgrades: Continuous innovation in blockchain technology—especially upgrades to major public chains like Ethereum 2.0, Solana, and Polkadot—will bring higher transaction efficiency and lower costs, enhancing the appeal of crypto assets. The maturation of Layer 2 solutions, strengthening of cross-chain protocols, and ongoing evolution of smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) could serve as powerful technical catalysts for a market rebound.
Liquidity and Institutional Participation: As institutional investors increasingly enter the crypto market, liquidity improves. Institutional capital brings deeper market depth, greater stability, and enhanced maturity. With the rollout of financial derivatives such as ETFs and futures, more traditional investors are participating, injecting fresh vitality into the crypto market.
5.2 Key Factors for a H2 Rebound
Despite optimistic prospects, whether a new rally materializes in the second half hinges on the confluence of several critical factors:
Regulatory Clarity: Global regulatory frameworks for crypto remain uncertain. While some countries have established clear rules, others remain观望 (on the sidelines). Further clarification—especially regarding stablecoins, DeFi, and NFTs—will have far-reaching impacts. If major economies such as the U.S., Europe, and key Asian nations introduce more supportive policies and provide positive guidance on crypto assets, market sentiment and capital inflows could improve dramatically.
Improved Market Sentiment: A recovery in market sentiment is essential for any rebound. Compared to 2024, sentiment has shifted from pessimistic to neutral, with growing investor acceptance of crypto assets. As macro conditions improve and more participants enter, sentiment could strengthen further, triggering capital inflows. This process may unfold gradually with support from technological innovation and policy developments, eventually driving price appreciation.
Large-Scale Capital Inflows: The entry of large capital, particularly institutional players, will be another key driver. In the second half of 2025, increased participation from financial institutions and major capital pools will significantly boost market liquidity and scale. With the rapid growth of derivative markets such as ETFs and futures, market volatility may decrease while stability and capital inflows improve.
Maturity of Decentralized Finance (DeFi): As a core component of the crypto market, DeFi could see further expansion in the second half of 2025. Improvements in DeFi protocol security, liquidity, and user experience will attract more investors and developers. The expansion of DeFi platforms and decentralized financial services will inject new momentum into the entire ecosystem—particularly in areas like cross-chain transactions and DeFi derivatives innovation.
5.3 Strategic Recommendations
Facing the potential rebound in the second half of 2025, investors should formulate investment strategies based on market potential and associated risks. Below are several actionable recommendations:
Adopt a Long-Term Investment Approach in Core Assets: Despite the emergence of numerous new chains and assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the "main forces" of the crypto market. Bitcoin’s status as digital gold and a safe-haven asset remains firm. Ethereum continues to dominate smart contract and decentralized application (DApp) development. For long-term investors, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum remains a sound strategy, offering substantial return potential when market sentiment turns positive.
Monitor Innovative Chains and Emerging Assets: Investors with higher risk tolerance may consider allocating to public chains and assets with strong technological innovation and high growth potential. For example, Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot are attracting growing attention from developers and investors. These chains offer alternative technical solutions with higher throughput and lower transaction costs, potentially outperforming expectations—particularly in DeFi and NFT applications.
Increase Exposure to Stablecoins and DeFi Assets: As integral components of the crypto market, stablecoins and DeFi assets offer new investment opportunities. The use cases for stablecoins will continue to expand, serving as key mediums for cross-chain transactions and decentralized finance. High-quality DeFi protocols and tokens may become new growth engines; investors can consider allocating to top-tier DeFi tokens to capture value from ecosystem growth.
Stay Alert to Policy Developments and Regulatory Risks: Investors must closely monitor global regulatory changes, especially those affecting stablecoins, DeFi, and NFTs. Regulatory support or restrictions will directly influence capital flows and market direction. Proactively tracking regulatory progress and adjusting investment strategies promptly upon clarity can help mitigate policy risks and seize emerging opportunities.
In conclusion, the potential for a crypto market rebound in the second half of 2025 remains substantial. Whether this translates into a new market cycle depends on the interplay of multiple factors. From macroeconomic recovery and technological innovation to liquidity expansion and regulatory clarity, all elements are converging to support market revival. Under these conditions, investors should remain agile, continuously monitoring market dynamics and emerging opportunities.
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