Bitcoin rises, altcoins struggle: Why the old rotation logic no longer works?
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Bitcoin rises, altcoins struggle: Why the old rotation logic no longer works?
When BTC rises, altcoins follow. It was true in 2017, true in 2021, will 2025 be any different?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: kyle_chasse
Translation: TechFlow
In the past, the crypto market followed a classic script: Bitcoin rises first, then altcoins rotate in.
This pattern was confirmed during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. Bitcoin served as a "beachhead," attracting massive inflows of capital, which then flowed into altcoins, driving broad market prosperity.
However, this model appears to have broken down in 2025.
ETF Capital Locked Up, Liquidity Dries Up
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Institutionalization effect: ETF capital is not speculative—it's for long-term holding. This has significantly reduced market liquidity, leaving altcoins without rotation opportunities.
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Data comparison: In 2021, altcoins accounted for 38.7% of the total crypto market cap; by 2025, that figure had dropped to 14.2%.
Altcoin Proliferation and Market Dilution
The number of altcoins in the market has exploded from just thousands in 2021 to 12 million in 2025—including long-tail tokens and meme coins. This oversupply has diluted the market, making it difficult for high-quality projects to stand out while low-quality ones flood the space.
In 2021, Binance listed only around 300 tokens. Today, CoinMarketCap tracks over 12 million. Such explosive growth has brought not innovation, but an abundance of "junk tokens."
Many retail investors suffered heavy losses on Solana-based meme coins and opaque Telegram trades, with little chance of recovering their capital once lost.
MicroStrategy: The Institutions’ New “Altcoin”
In 2025, institutional investor behavior in the crypto market has fundamentally changed. Instead of chasing high returns through altcoins, institutions now prefer leveraged exposure via Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has become the institutions’ new “altcoin.” By issuing bonds to buy Bitcoin and using Bitcoin as collateral for further financing, MicroStrategy offers institutions a low-risk, high-leverage investment vehicle.
MicroStrategy currently holds over 300,000 bitcoins at an average acquisition cost of approximately $13,900—far below Bitcoin’s current price. Rather than taking risks on volatile altcoins, institutions can now gain indirect, leveraged exposure to Bitcoin simply by investing in MSTR stock.
Institutional preference for MicroStrategy further squeezes the survival space for altcoins.
The “cleansing” of the altcoin market is accelerating. With institutional capital pulling back and retail funds drying up, many projects have become completely ignored.
A vast number of meme coins on the Solana ecosystem have turned into “hot potato” games, with most retail investors ending up as bagholders.
In 2024, only 3.7% of the 870,000 meme coins launched on Solana survived beyond 30 days. Once capital leaves, these tokens rarely recover.
New Survival Rules in a PVP Market
As the traditional investment logic of “buy, hold, wait for rotation” fails, the crypto market has entered a new phase of “player versus player” (PvP). In this environment, only those who spot trends earliest can profit—everyone else becomes exit liquidity.
The old cyclical strategy—“buy altcoins, wait for the bull market rotation”—is no longer valid.
Today’s market is far more brutal: if you’re not among the very first to enter a trend, you’re likely serving as someone else’s exit liquidity.
Binance founder CZ once noted that 99% of traders would earn far more by simply holding Bitcoin than by speculating on altcoins.
While most altcoins have lost value, a small number of high-quality projects still have potential to rise in the future.
When Bitcoin surges sharply, capital may still flow into a select few quality projects—but this will resemble a “selective rally” rather than a full-blown “altcoin season.”
The question is no longer “if there will be opportunities,” but “when they will come.”
Despite the current hostile environment for altcoins, this doesn’t mean they have no future at all. A few truly valuable projects may survive the shakeout and claim a place in the next market cycle.
Characteristics of high-quality projects: Real-world use cases (e.g., DeFi protocols), strong community support, and sustained technical development.
Bitcoin’s dominance will strengthen further. As ETFs become widespread and institutional capital continues flowing in, Bitcoin may evolve into an asset akin to “digital gold,” with gradually declining volatility.
The crypto market of 2025 is undergoing profound transformation.
The old rotation logic is dead. New rules are being established. In this process, most projects will be eliminated, while a few quality ones will seize new opportunities. For investors, understanding the new market rules and avoiding becoming exit liquidity will be the key to future success.
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@kyle_chasse
