Reflections on a Million-Dollar Deal: Less is More
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Reflections on a Million-Dollar Deal: Less is More
Trading is an endless dialogue with oneself.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: b12ny
There are two types of traders in the market: one knows too little and earns little, the other knows more but loses even more.
When I first entered trading, I always believed that the more I learned, the more I could earn. But later I realized the market isn't a knowledge contest—it's a brutal game of survival.
Since the market hasn't been as heated as it was in previous months, and my performance this year has been at its worst, I've started reviewing my entire trading journey from the beginning until now.
From emotional trading as a beginner, to data-driven trading, and now to trading based on market sentiment.
This journey hasn’t made me understand the market better per se, but rather taught me how to adapt to it. I’ve learned to cut down unnecessary cognitive burdens and identify the core elements truly suited to my trading style.
Stage One: Emotional Trading
I remember when I first started, every trading decision was driven by intuition and a dull sense of market hype. FOMO was my main motivation. Like everyone else, I relied on Elon Musk’s tweets to decide when to go all-in. I scrolled through Twitter, joined countless Telegram groups, terrified of missing any “100x opportunity.”
I felt extremely involved—like I could jump into action anytime. The market frenzy and Dogecoin at the time made me feel like a blockchain genius. But after frequent trading and then facing my first major crash, I suffered a maximum drawdown of nearly 70%. My entries and exits seemed reasonable at the time, but looking back, they were all stupid.
Back then, I even suspected whether some whales were specifically targeting my positions. In reality, I simply didn’t understand the logic behind market mechanics.
Stage Two: Data-Driven Trading
After realizing the flaws in emotional trading, I shifted toward data analysis. With my background in data, I began studying on-chain metrics, fund flows, and liquidity changes, building strategies aimed at following whales to find perfect entry and exit points.
This data advantage made me more rational. I thought I had uncovered the manipulations of big players and reduced the number of times I got dragged around by the market. However, as my reliance on indicators grew, my decision-making became increasingly complex and harder to execute.
When data conflicted with actual market sentiment, I found myself stuck in a situation where my theories felt correct—but the market refused to agree. I learned how to use data to validate market logic, only to be harshly reminded by reality:
“No amount of data can fully predict what will happen next.”
Stage Three: Trading Sentiment
In the later stages of my journey, I began to realize that the market never offers perfect opportunities. Real trading edges emerge from the resonance between key variables (uncertainty) and collective market sentiment.
Data is valuable for providing historical context and possible directions—not as a holy grail with 100% win rate. Ultimately, trading success isn’t about who knows the most, but who can survive longer in the market (i.e., lose less).
So I started cutting out unnecessary data analysis, stopped obsessing over every detail, and focused only on Narrative, capital flows, liquidity shifts, and turning points in market sentiment.
My approach became simpler. I no longer chased “perfect data alignment,” instead entering only at critical inflection points. This increased my margin for error, reduced information overload, and allowed me to concentrate on the core variables I believe truly move markets. It also gave me greater flexibility to adapt without being locked into a single rigid strategy.
Trading Is an Endless Dialogue with Yourself
To this day, I’ve finally come to understand: trading isn’t about knowing more—it’s about knowing what to ignore.
You may be able to analyze on-chain data, study market sentiment, catch short-term moves, track capital flows. You might read the mood in meme coins, recognize how a single meme ignites FOMO, how one tweet pumps a token, or how to exit before faith collapses.
But despite mastering all this, you can still lose money—that’s the brutal truth.
The key to trading isn’t absorbing every piece of information, but simplifying, focusing on a few crucial things, filtering out market noise, trusting your decisions, and having the courage to admit mistakes. Only then do you stand a chance of surviving in this market.
The above is my personal journey—from emotional trading, to data-driven strategies, and finally returning to riding the rhythm of the market. My experience hasn’t been linear, but rather a process moving from chaos to order, and ultimately toward simplicity.
In the end, I just want to say, you can lose anything,
but nothing beats the sweetness of your smile—even Super Idol’s grin can’t compare.
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