Stop gambling within the framework of fortune-telling
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Stop gambling within the framework of fortune-telling
Most of the pain in trading often stems from a mismatch between one's personality and their positions.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Yu Zhong Kuang Shui
Human instinct drives us to act immediately when faced with a problem, as if action could offset the anxiety of the unknown. However, the biggest pitfall is that people's rapid actions often do not match the resources they invest. Most people's actions are merely pseudo-diligence aimed at alleviating anxiety. When the speed of action surpasses the precision of thought, the consumption of your principal is no longer an investment but a gamble on luck—you are using tactical diligence to mask strategic laziness.
This is a problem everyone faces. Whether one can confront this issue head-on and devise effective solutions truly widens the gap between individuals.
Remember, think before you act.
Step One: Find Your Unique Edge
0xlykt once wrote two articles on how to "Finding Edge."
https://0xlykt.substack.com/p/finding-edge
https://0xlykt.substack.com/p/finding-edge-part-2-table-selection
I recommend reading these two articles first before continuing.
In simple terms, 0xlykt constructed a capability framework to help the general public seek opportunities in the current crypto market environment. The core idea is to encourage market participants to proactively choose a suitable "table" with many "fish" and engage in positive-sum games.
However, I believe these two articles are informative, but the scenarios they describe have a high entry barrier and a singular path, being too idealistic and not suitable for everyone.
Personally, I think that at the practical level, we can find a suitable and effective path by conversing with AI. As @Wuhuoqiu mentioned, "AI is not a 'cognitive equalizer' but a 'cognitive leverage amplifier.'"
The specific form of prompts varies from person to person, but the core idea lies in analysis and extension. Analyze your personality, cognition, and capability framework to extend execution ideas and details for different scenarios.
Don't ask AI how to make money, whether to buy or sell. Instead, confide your thoughts and current situation to AI.
Discuss with AI:
- Your childhood, personality, hobbies, and early life experiences;
- Your investment experiences and summaries, as well as your judgment of the future;
- The assets you are bullish on, your holdings and logic, and your holding period;
- The opportunities you missed and why.
One thing to note here is that AI tends to agree with you, so you need to identify points you don't understand or have doubts about in AI's responses and continue discussing them. Alternatively, you need to remind AI not to be your yes-man but to refute you with reason and evidence.
This kind of dialogue is essentially a conversation between your superficial self and your inner self, with more confrontation. The conversation should go against the current, not with it.
Your edge and potential edge will emerge during the conversation. After all, using AI for elimination is much more efficient than thinking and practicing everything yourself. What follows tests your execution ability to leverage your edge to make money.
Step Two: Establish an Execution System Framework
Finding your edge is essentially about finding the direction to make money. After finding the direction, it's not the end; you need to push forward and build a systematic framework for your subsequent execution.
The core goal of building a system framework is to give you the ability to react agilely in a dynamically changing market—to respond quickly based on different market conditions and types of opportunities.
The core of building a system framework is review and summarization.
For example.
If you reviewed the pump process of $AERO (listing, Coinbase spot listing, and pump timing, etc.), you wouldn't have missed the opportunity with $ZORA's rise. Both trades correspond to Coinbase's core needs. $AERO corresponded to the Cancun upgrade, and Coinbase needed to pump $AERO's price to capture liquidity for Base. Similarly, $ZORA corresponds to Coinbase's core needs. Coinbase is betting its future on Base App and Creator Coins, and Zora is a core component of Base's new phase. Coinbase needed to pump $ZORA to expand the influence of Base and Creator Coins. In my view, the opportunity attributes of $AERO and $ZORA are identical.
Review and summarization are not limited to inductive learning from each trade but involve extracting the underlying logical commonalities from individual cases and transforming them into a reusable decision model: signal recognition —> logic verification —> execution entry.
Finally
After all this talk, in simple terms, what I want to say is to know yourself. Most of the pain in trading often comes from a mismatch between personality and holdings. Abandon the fantasy of being all-powerful; human capabilities have boundaries. You can't have it all. Find or cultivate your edge, and use your edge and the capability framework built upon it to make money.
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year!
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
雨中狂睡Sleeping in the Rain
