Meme tide recedes, large token unlocks—has Solana's "good luck" run out?
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Meme tide recedes, large token unlocks—has Solana's "good luck" run out?
Recent signs of a clear "retreat" in memes, coupled with the upcoming massive token unlock, have created a perfect storm, significantly increasing pressure on Solana. Has its "good fortune" truly run out?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Mu Mu, Baihua Blockchain
Due to Solana's outstanding performance in this market cycle, many believe this bull run is essentially Solana's bull market. Looking back at Solana’s short development history, whether it was riding the DeFi Summer wave with Wall Street entering the scene, or seizing the meme coin boom as a lifeline to make a "comeback" even after FTX collapsed, all these events make Solana seem incredibly fortunate.
Yet giants like FTX can collapse overnight, and memes have their own rise and fall. Recently, clear signs of the meme retreat, combined with an upcoming large token unlock, have created a perfect storm, significantly increasing pressure on Solana. Has its "good luck" truly run out?
01. The Meme Retreat
Recently, on-chain data shows that since February, transaction volumes on Solana have dropped sharply, and the number of meme launches on related platforms has drastically decreased. Popular projects within the Solana ecosystem have fallen significantly, and various FUD narratives are resurfacing on social media.
Meme coins initially rose amid calls for “anti-VC,” “no bagholders,” and “fair launches.” However, once the meme craze took off, institutions quickly became the “big players” and seized favorable positions. The crypto community soon realized that without continuous capital inflow, fairly launched memecoins were fleeting. As a result, most people returned to the arms of institutions, taking on their bags.
Then came the presidential meme coins—representing celebrity-driven hype. First, the Trump family tokens rapidly drained market liquidity, followed by Milei’s token delivering another heavy blow. Afterwards, people gradually discovered that behind these celebrity projects were coordinated trading teams, some even interconnected, with invisible hands manipulating every trending project. The crypto community felt repeatedly exploited. A KOL bluntly stated: We in crypto want to go mainstream, not let outsiders come in to cash out...
In the end, the rise and burst of the meme bubble exposed human greed—the overly speculative retail investors inevitably becoming bagholders. This severely damaged the meme market and dealt a major blow to Solana’s ecosystem, which had gained rapid momentum largely due to the meme surge. The implications are obvious.
02. Terrible Timing: The Massive Token Unlock
While still reeling from the meme downturn, another devastating piece of news arrived: “11.2 million SOL will be unlocked on March 1.” Initially, people mistook this for a scheduled release under the tokenomics model—typically small-scale and planned, with minimal market impact. But this massive unlock marks the second wave of fallout from FTX’s bankruptcy. Simply put, these 11.2 million SOL are part of the tokens sold during FTX’s liquidation process. These tokens were subject to a vesting schedule (typically 1–3 years), and now, maturing by March 2025, they are entering circulation.
After FTX’s collapse in November 2022, the massive amount of SOL held by its affiliate Alameda Research became part of the liquidation assets. It’s estimated that FTX/Alameda originally held around 58 million SOL—about 10%-15% of Solana’s total supply at the time. The bankruptcy trustee (led by John J. Ray III) subsequently sold these tokens at a discount to institutional investors. Buyers reportedly included Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, and Figure Markets. Based on information from X and on-chain data (such as Lookonchain tracking), the market estimates these tokens were purchased at around $60–80 per SOL (30–40% of the current market price).
Since the upcoming 11.2 million SOL were acquired by institutions at a significant discount, the market expects substantial selling pressure post-unlock if there isn’t immediate over-the-counter absorption. This pressure is already affecting the current market price and the broader Solana ecosystem community.
03. Is Solana’s Luck Finally Gone?
So, has Solana really used up all its luck amidst these consecutive setbacks? Not necessarily. Both the anticipated approval of a Solana spot ETF this year and Trump’s series of pro-crypto policies could be seen as extensions of Solana’s good fortune.
The potential approval of a Solana spot ETF, possibly as early as June this year, is highly anticipated. On prominent prediction platforms, the probability of a Solana ETF being approved in 2025 stands at 84%, with a 38% chance of approval by June 30. Looking at the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs after approval: Bitcoin’s spot ETF currently holds over $110 billion in assets, while Ethereum’s exceeds $10 billion. Given Solana’s level of institutional support, it could easily attract tens of billions in inflows—more than enough to offset the negative impact of the 11.2 million SOL unlock. The problem, however, is timing: the unlock is imminent, while ETF approval is still months away.
Trump’s pro-crypto policies, meanwhile, are concretely materializing and represent a favorable regulatory environment for the entire crypto industry. Thanks to the accelerated catalyst of the meme boom, Solana’s ecosystem has become increasingly impressive. In early 2025, Solana’s DEX trading volume briefly surpassed Ethereum’s, successfully passing a stress test, with strong momentum in both user numbers and activity.
Moreover, Solana’s developer community is growing rapidly. Combined with planned technical upgrades in Solana’s future roadmap that aim to resolve existing shortcomings, its ecosystem continues to draw increasing attention. Top-tier institutions such as PayPal and Franklin Templeton have also joined in adopting Solana.
04. Summary
Whether it’s the cooling meme market or the large token unlock, these are merely short-term "growing pains," common in the crypto space. They shouldn't be taken as signs of Solana’s demise—especially given its strong ecosystem momentum coinciding with a favorable regulatory climate. As a leading U.S.-based public blockchain, Solana is particularly well-positioned. As for the more distant future, only time will provide further validation.
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