FTX begins first round of repayments, 11.2 million SOL即将解锁, is this an overhyped "wolf cry"?
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FTX begins first round of repayments, 11.2 million SOL即将解锁, is this an overhyped "wolf cry"?
Is it panic spreading excessively, or are risks not yet fully priced in?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Frank, PANews
On February 18, 2025, FTX officially initiated its first round of creditor repayments, marking a critical phase in the two-year-long bankruptcy liquidation process. However, market attention has turned to another potential risk: on March 1, 11.2 million SOL tokens from FTX's bankruptcy auction are set to unlock, valued at up to $1.9 billion. Although the repayment in fiat currency appears "mild," the anticipated large-scale circulation of SOL has raised market concerns, as FTX's asset sales could once again impact the crypto ecosystem. Is this merely excessive panic, or is the risk not yet fully priced in?
Over $5 Billion Still Unpaid in First Round
According to public information, the creditors receiving payouts in this round are initial beneficiaries—small claimants with claims of $50,000 or less. Under FTX's reorganization plan, they will receive full repayment with a 9% annual interest rate. These users may ultimately receive up to 119% repayment in fiat terms.
According to FTX creditor Sunil, approximately $800 million has been paid out so far in this round, covering 162,000 accounts, or 35% of the estimated 460,000 eligible claimant accounts. Repayments exceeding $50,000 will not be processed until after May 30.
Previous reports indicated that the total amount involved in the first-phase repayment plan ranges between $6.5 and $7 billion. This round is expected to continue until March 4. However, FTX has not yet disclosed the actual amount repaid in the first round.
Judging solely from the repayment perspective, since FTX chose to settle in fiat currency, the commencement of repayments may not cause significant turmoil in the crypto market—and might even inject new capital into it.
Nearly $2 Billion Worth of OTC SOL Tokens Unlocking
Market anxiety surrounding FTX primarily stems from the auction of crypto assets such as Solana. As per filings from 2023, FTX’s total assets were only $4.77 billion, falling short by $6.8 billion against the then-estimated $11.5 billion repayment obligation. With the crypto market entering a bull run in 2024, the value of FTX’s held crypto assets surged significantly.
Solana provided the most substantial boost to FTX, with SOL increasing over 28-fold since December 2022. As one of Solana’s major investors, FTX holds a large quantity of locked SOL tokens. According to monitoring data from @ai_9684xtpa, as of February 17, FTX has sold 41 million SOL through three auctions. Among these, 11.2 million will unlock on March 1.
Reports indicate that these 41 million tokens were not directly sold on the secondary market but were instead acquired via private deals: Galaxy purchased 25.52 million at $64 each, Pantera and other buyers acquired 13.67 million at $95 each, and Figure along with other buyers took 1.8 million at $102 each. Overall, these transactions generated $2.932 billion for FTX, making it the largest source of proceeds from crypto asset liquidations.
Regarding the unlocking SOL tokens, the sale was likely completed earlier via auction; the unlock simply enables delivery. Regardless of the final holder, these tokens will enter circulation, and the known buyers’ cost basis is far below current market prices. Therefore, there is indeed a risk of profit-taking sales, though the volume of unlocking SOL represents only 2.3% of the current circulating supply.
Sui Has Repurchased Equity; Disposition of APT, AVAX and Other Assets Remains Unknown
In March 2024, FTX announced the sale of its shares and tokens in Mysten Labs—the developer of the Sui network—for $95 million. By the end of 2024, the value of these sold shares and tokens peaked at $4.6 billion. For the market, had FTX retained these tokens, SUI would have faced greater selling pressure.
Besides Solana and Sui, Aptos was another key blockchain investment by FTX. Media reports show that in 2022, FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto co-led a $150 million funding round for Aptos. However, as of now, Aptos has not disclosed the final disposition of these equity holdings. According to FTX’s March 2023 filing, it held 5 million APT tokens. Yet, no APT tokens are currently visible in FTX’s ARKM blockchain address. At the price on February 19, this APT holding would be worth approximately $31.65 million.
As of February 19, the largest token holding in FTX’s on-chain address is FTT, with 257 million tokens held, valued at approximately $505 million. The total market cap of FTT stands at only $657 million; any disposal of this position could pose severe price impact. FTX previously asked users to report their purchase prices for FTT, but in the fiat-based compensation scheme, FTT is currently valued at zero, leaving uncertainty around how FTT holders will be compensated.
FTX’s 2023 disclosure documents revealed additional major crypto holdings, including 1.42 million AVAX (worth $33.76 million), 36,000 BTC ($346 million), 154,000 ETH ($410 million), and 29.7 million XRP ($76.32 million). However, as of February 19, these assets are no longer visible in FTX’s publicly listed wallet addresses, indicating they have already been sold during the liquidation period. As of February 19, the total value of assets in FTX’s on-chain addresses was approximately $1.269 billion.
With FTX’s repayment process underway, the FTX bankruptcy saga is finally nearing its conclusion. After more than two years of transformation, the entire crypto industry has entered a new structural phase, and FTX’s influence is gradually becoming part of history. Recent market declines attributed to FTX seem more like baseless speculation or mere manifestations of fear during a volatile period.
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