Has the bubble burst? Is the AI Agent craze coming to an end?

2025.01.14

Has the bubble burst? Is the AI Agent craze coming to an end?

The AI Agent hype may eventually fade, but at least for now, it's not a bubble burst.

2025.01.14 - 10:30:40

AIAgent

Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights

The AI Agent hype may eventually fade, but at least for now, it's not a bubble burst.

Author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently, tokens in the AI Agent sector have generally pulled back.

According to GMGN data, major AI Agent tokens in the Base ecosystem saw significant declines over the past 7 days: VIRTUAL dropped more than 39%, AIXBT over 20%, GAME over 30%, and LUNA over 50%. On Solana, leading AI Agent tokens also declined sharply: ai16z fell over 45%, ELIZA over 48%, while swarms and ARC both dropped over 38%.

It has been more than three months since GOAT pioneered a new model combining AI and crypto, followed by ai16z and Virtuals expanding the narrative around cryptographic AI Agents. As a result, many market observers now believe the AI Agent hype cycle has ended, leaving those who haven't exited their positions as the ones paying the bill for this "feast." Some even compare this wave of AI Agent enthusiasm to a faster-paced version of the inscriptions (Ordinals) boom.

Has the AI Agent craze nearly come to an end? The answer is not so simple.

What Stage Has AI Agent Reached?

Undeniably, in investing we must respect cycles—enter before the market peaks and exit gracefully before the excitement fades. Currently, AI Agents are in the deep squat phase just before the explosive jump upward.

CEX Influence on Price Continues to Diminish

From the perspective of market sentiment and liquidity, people often treat listings on Binance—the so-called "universe's largest exchange"—as the endpoint for any on-chain asset. When Binance lists a popular token from a trending sector, it typically marks the peak of both market sentiment and liquidity, followed by a period of FOMO and eventual quiet. However, in this round of the AI Agent narrative, the impact of CEX listings may not be as strong as expected.

Public information shows that Binance has launched perpetual contracts for ai16z and swarms but only listed AIXBT for spot trading on January 10. Although the listing of ai16z and swarms futures triggered short-term FUD and price drops, both tokens later rebounded. Similarly, despite Binance announcing AIXBT spot trading, the brief few hours of FOMO were followed by a return to normal price levels.

According to Cointelegraph, on January 7, DEX spot cryptocurrency trading volume占比首次超过 20%. As more users trade directly on-chain, the influence of CEX platforms on token prices will continue to decline.

AI Agent Is the Metaverse of 2025

In 2021, the world went crazy for the metaverse; in 2025, the world will go crazy for AI Agents.

The metaverse wasn't just a web3 phenomenon in 2021—it also sparked a frenzy among web2 tech companies. The most iconic moment was when social media giant Facebook rebranded itself as Meta, fully committing to the metaverse vision. In 2025, Nvidia plays a role similar to Meta back then, capturing attention amid the AI Agent wave. At CES 2025, Nvidia founder Jensen Huang stated in his keynote speech: "Over 30 million developers worldwide will soon each have their own software assistant—or risk falling behind their peers. Moreover, AI Agents are poised to become the next robotics industry, with a market scale reaching several trillion dollars."

Web3 has always loved aligning with popular narratives, whether grand technological trends or minor incidents like the killing of a squirrel in the U.S. The 2021 metaverse boom gave rise to projects like Decentraland within web3—excluding derivative assets, its token alone reached a peak market cap exceeding $10 billion. Today, neither ai16z nor virtuals have yet approached such valuations.

2025 is the year of AI Agent breakout. Traditional web2 tech industries' embrace of AI Agents is far from over—and in web3, it's only just beginning.

Is AI Agent Just a Faster Version of Inscriptions?

Another view circulating in the market interprets AI Agents as a faster-paced version of inscriptions (Ordinals). There are indeed some similarities: the fair launch model via pump.fun mirrors the fair minting of inscriptions; the competition between different AI Agent frameworks resembles the earlier battle among Bitcoin-based asset issuance protocols—overall technically similar but with subtle distinctions; and top-tier projects experiencing immediate sell-outs at launch echo how popular inscription assets were quickly minted during their heyday.

Yet there are key differences:

Higher market acceptance and recognition: This wave of AI Agents emerged from Solana’s fertile meme soil, enjoying greater market receptivity. Unlike early inscriptions, AI Agents aren’t the first fusion of AI and crypto—users have already undergone prior market education and thus show higher recognition and readiness.
Building from 1 to 100: Inscriptions were born in the relatively barren environment of the Bitcoin ecosystem, representing a true 0-to-1 innovation. In contrast, AI Agent development builds from 1 to 100—benefiting from Solana’s robust existing infrastructure and drawing extensively from advancements in the broader AI industry. As a result, ecosystem growth for AI Agents will be significantly faster than that of inscriptions.
Broadened narrative scope: As previously noted, 2025 is set to be the breakout year for AI Agents. While web3-based AI Agents differ slightly from mainstream tech implementations, they remain aligned with the overarching trend. With wider market reach and broader participation, this is a long-term narrative with real potential to break into the mainstream.

Frankly speaking, web3 never has permanent narratives—eventually, the AI Agent hype may fade. But at least for now, it's not time to declare the bubble burst. As for the recent broad-based pullback, one possible reason could be......