How large will the future market size of Web3 AI agents be?
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How large will the future market size of Web3 AI agents be?
Nvidia CEO: "AI agents represent a multi-trillion-dollar business opportunity."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: DavidNage, Venture Capital PM at ARCA
Translation: Shaofaye123, Foresight News
Nvidia's CEO declared, "The era of AI Agentics has arrived," describing this emerging field as holding a "multi-trillion-dollar business opportunity."
Prior to Huang’s remarks, in Q4 2024, user interest had already begun shifting toward Web3 AI agents—software entities leveraging the infrastructure and frameworks provided by both Web3 and AI ecosystems.
On January 2, several Web3 AI agent platforms achieved significant market cap milestones: Ai16zDAO reached a $2.6 billion valuation via Eliza’s framework, while Virtuals hit $5 billion via GAME. Four days later, ARC reached $450 million via RIG, and Zerebro reached $783 million via Zerepy. By January 12, the 1,210 agents built on the Cookie framework achieved combined market caps of $7.5 billion on Solana and $5.5 billion on Base, exceeding $13 billion in total market cap.
Given the multi-trillion-dollar opportunity and the growth seen so far, how large could the market cap for Web3 AI agents become? Additionally, the market share of traditional AI companies (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, etc.) must be considered when analyzing the potential share and timeline for Web3 AI agents.
Analysis of AI Technology Adoption
Since the invention of email, it took 35 years for one billion people to obtain an email address. In contrast, ChatGPT, launched in November 2022, now has nearly 200 million monthly active users (MAU). Consider the following technology adoption curve:
Currently, there are approximately 4.8 billion unique email addresses globally, with ChatGPT users representing about 4.2% of that base—even though its early growth was slowed by language limitations and computational resource constraints.
At the current rate of roughly 14 million new users per month, if growth accelerates by a factor of two—driven by broader accessibility and competitive dynamics—to 28.6 million new users monthly, the total number of new users over the next 24 months would be:
28.6 million × 24 months ≈ 686M
Adding this to the existing 200 million users, ChatGPT is projected to reach approximately 886 million users by 2026.
Assuming by 2026:
Paying users: 886M × 0.10 (conversion rate) = 88.6 million paying users
Monthly revenue: 88.6 million × $20 = $1.77 billion/month
Annual revenue: $1.77 billion × 12 = $21.24 billion/year
Applying a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5x, and referencing premium multiples, this would imply a market valuation of approximately $100 billion for ChatGPT (compared to its latest private market valuation of $157 billion). Huang stated that AI agents represent a trillion-dollar opportunity. Assuming ChatGPT captures 15% of this total market, $850 billion in market opportunity remains unclaimed.
The key question then becomes: How much of this remaining market can Web3 AI agents capture?
Web3 Market Share Analysis
We can apply the “Bitcoin-to-gold market cap ratio” as an analogy to the AI agent market. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap represents approximately 10.9% of gold’s total market cap. If Web3 AI agents were to capture a similar proportion of the AI agent market:
$850 billion × 10.9% = $92.65 billion (potential market size for Web3 AI agents).
However, several factors suggest Web3 AI agents may achieve a higher market share:
Advantages of Web3 Agents:
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Decentralized Infrastructure: The decentralized network infrastructure already exists and can be directly leveraged.
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Token Incentive Mechanisms: Token-based reward systems encourage participation from users and developers.
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Smart Contract Automation: Efficient automation enabled through smart contracts.
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Built-in Payment Functionality: Seamless payment integration within the Web3 ecosystem allows immediate use.
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Data Sovereignty and Ownership: Users gain true ownership and control over their data.
Unique Capabilities of Web3 Agents:
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Tokenized Agent Ownership: Enables users to hold ownership of agents via tokens.
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DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) Integration: Seamless integration with DAOs enables community-driven governance and decision-making.
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Composability with DeFi: Web3 agents can seamlessly interact with decentralized finance applications, expanding functionality and value.
Given these distinct advantages, Web3 AI agents may capture a larger market share than Bitcoin’s share of the gold market. Assuming three scenarios:
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Low Expectation: 10.9% (Bitcoin/gold ratio) = $92.65 billion
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Moderate Expectation: 20% = $170 billion
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High Expectation: 30% = $255 billion
The potential for the Web3 agent market may extend well beyond these figures, especially as these advantages are further developed and fully utilized.
Conclusion
The rise of Web3 AI agents marks the convergence of two transformative technologies.
ChatGPT reached 200 million monthly active users within just two years—a rapid adoption curve that provides a critical benchmark for the acceleration of AI technology. Using the 10.9% Bitcoin-to-gold market cap ratio as a conservative baseline and applying it to the estimated $850 billion AI agent market opportunity (excluding ChatGPT’s share), the Web3 AI agent market could reach $92.65 billion. Given Web3’s inherent advantages—including decentralized infrastructure, token-based incentives, smart contract automation, and integrated payments—the market share could be significantly higher. A 20% market share is a reasonable expectation, supporting a $170 billion market size.
Furthermore, the unique capabilities of Web3 agents—such as tokenized ownership, DAO integration, and composability with DeFi—enable them to fully leverage the rapid adoption trajectory of AI and the existing infrastructure of blockchain technology. As such, this sector is poised to become one of the greatest beneficiaries at the intersection of AI and blockchain.
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