Tracing the Macro-Level Threads of This Bull Market
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Tracing the Macro-Level Threads of This Bull Market
Know history, and you will understand the rise and fall of civilizations.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Biupa-TZC
Beyond the order books and technical indicators I’ve consistently followed, a subtle yet critical thread influencing crypto market trends is macroeconomics. Understanding history helps us grasp cycles of rise and fall—reviewing the past better equips us to judge future market movements.
1. The Initial Bull Run: August 18, 2023 – March 2024
Fed meeting dates in H2 2023:
July 26, September 2, November 1, December 13 — remember these four dates
I believe this bull cycle began after August 18, 2023 (818). The 818 event was a shakeout occurring at a remarkably strategic timing.
July 2023 marked the Fed’s final rate hike of this cycle (though we didn’t know it then). The next FOMC meeting was in September 2023. Market consensus at the time expected no further hikes in September (markets couldn't withstand consecutive hikes), but the September dot plot suggested one more hike before year-end—widely anticipated for November.
The turning point came between September and November.
First, Western countries had already begun cutting rates (high rates were unsustainable). Second, key U.S. economic data improved. Third, financial conditions tightened (evidenced by a sharp Nasdaq sell-off). During this period, market expectations shifted from “one more hike in 2023” to “no more hikes in 2023—and rate cuts starting in 2024 (with most predicting cuts beginning in May 2024).”
Finance trades on expectations.
Prior to the Fed's pivot in November, traders had already started betting on a pause in hikes and began buying. This shift in expectations altered market risk dynamics. Crypto also had its own catalyst—the expectation of ETF approvals. Combined, these forces triggered a bottom formation and a rally starting in October.
This upward move saw only one major shakeout—the Grayscale dump following ETF approval in January. After that, prices resumed climbing toward the March peak. In hindsight, there were many signs indicating that March was a top. Macro conditions also underwent a major shift in March.
2. The Bull-to-Bear Shakeout: March 2024 – August 2024
Fed meeting dates in H1 2024:
January 31, March 20, April 30, June 12, July 31
In January 2024, optimism was widespread, with many expecting rate cuts to begin as early as March 2024. (Had that happened, we might have launched directly into an epic, explosive bull run.)
However, CPI and PPI data rebounded in February and March, extinguishing hopes for a March cut. After the March meeting, market consensus shifted to June or July for the first cut.
The March CPI print released on April 16 exceeded expectations again, while unemployment hit a historic low—significantly reducing the likelihood of June or July cuts. Markets now widely expected a delay until September.
From super-optimistic in January (March cut expected), to delayed-but-still-optimistic in March (June cut expected), to significantly increased uncertainty in April (September cut expected), the market turned bearish. I believe that starting in March, large players broadly entered distribution mode. Whether anticipating a June or September cut, maintaining high prices for so long became untenable—so most chose to exit post-March. The Ethereum ETF news-driven pump on May 20 offered the final chance to escape.
April 14 (414) was a black swan event akin to March 14 (314) or May 19 (519). Yet, how markets react after such events depends on macro context. While 314 preceded a roaring bull run, 414 led to prolonged grinding declines. The root cause? Deteriorating rate-cut expectations triggered aggressive selling by whales. Every bounce became an opportunity for them to offload, causing altcoin swing highs to progressively lower (March 13 peak > May 20 peak > late July peak > late August peak).
June and July were relatively quiet. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $70K, but alts performed poorly. Two additional macro events lifted July: Trump’s assassination attempt and his speech at the Bitcoin Conference—both fueling a temporary rebound. Otherwise, we’d likely have seen continued low-range consolidation throughout June and July, leading straight into the August 5 crash.
August 5 marked a macro-negative shock when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly hiked rates, triggering brutal selloffs across U.S. equities, Japanese stocks, and crypto. I view this event similarly to the August 18, 2023 (818) shakeout—it signaled a washout bottom and simultaneously planted seeds for the next phase of hope.
3. The Rate-Cut-Driven Bull Run: September 2024 – December 2024
Second-half 2024 FOMC meetings: September 18, November 7, December 18
The September rate cut can be interpreted in multiple ways. First, inflation steadily improved from May through August (May CPI: forecast 0.4%, actual 0.3%; June: forecast 0.1%, actual 0; July: forecast 0.1%, actual -0.1%; August and September met expectations). Second, markets had long priced in a September cut. Third, the August 5 crash caused “financial conditions to tighten again.” Thus, a September cut was well anticipated.
What was surprising was the 50-basis-point cut—versus the expected 25. September brought two big positives: (1) a 50bp cut vs. 25bp expected, and (2) guidance pointing to further cuts in November and December—implying 100bps total for the year versus 75bps previously expected.
This stronger-than-expected dovishness significantly boosted crypto. After September 18, neither alts nor Bitcoin experienced major pullbacks like those seen on 414, 517, 58, or 59 (dates referring to historical corrections—review them yourself). Instead, the market maintained an overall upward trajectory.
Crypto truly took off after Trump’s election victory on November 5—a recent chapter I won’t rehash (everyone still remembers vividly).
4. Where to in 2025?
From these three phases, we learn one truth—markets oscillate. Excessive optimism triggers correction; correction breeds pessimism; and overly pessimistic markets are rescued by the Fed, restarting the cycle of excessive optimism. The market swings within this rhythm.
Following the strong run from September to December, the December 18 FOMC meeting brought another turning point. Though rates were cut again, forward guidance for 2025 was sharply revised downward. In September 2024, markets expected four cuts in 2025. By December 2024, that dropped to just two (per the dot plot). Additionally, the expected date for the first 2025 cut shifted from January to March (currently split between March and May).
Four cuts → two cuts, January → March. Although we remain in a rate-cutting cycle, the slower pace constitutes a negative. It’s therefore understandable that altcoins saw a brief, sharp drop between December 18–20. In my view, this resembles the post-March scenario—but without a black swan, it was merely internal correction, hence less severe than 414.
As of now (January 5, 2025), we’re seeing the first bounce after roughly two weeks of shakeout. Some see this as a final escape wave (followed by a C-wave drop to 86,000), others as the start of the alt season. Currently, I believe that beyond order book data, the outcome will heavily depend on the January 28–29 FOMC meeting and macro data released throughout January.
Key January data includes:
-
January 10: Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls
-
January 14: PPI
-
January 15: CPI
Based on these figures, markets will form expectations for the first rate cut—in January, March, or May. The better the data (“good” meaning favorable to bulls), the higher the odds of a March cut and the greater the expected number of cuts in 2025. (A January cut remains unlikely, so the main debate is March vs. May.)
Additionally, the March meeting will include an updated dot plot—indicating the full-year cut projection. If January data is bullish and the Fed uses dovish language, March cut expectations will rise, increasing the odds of a sustained bull run. If cuts are delayed until May, the market may grind sideways until April before any meaningful rally begins.
The dot plot also matters—if March’s dots suggest more than two cuts for the year (December projected two; if post-March there are still 2–3 left), that would be positive. Therefore, if both January and March FOMC outcomes align with bullish expectations, we could see a prolonged rally from January to May—the so-called alt season.
Conversely, if January’s FOMC disappoints, and March does too, with only one cut coming in May, the market may trade in a low range from January to April (with a possible shakeout down to 86,000), rebound in April ahead of the May cut, then resume sideways action in June (mirroring the April–August 2024 pattern).
Can alts reach new highs? Let me be clear: lack of liquidity is an excuse for declines, not the real reason. The true cause of falling prices is “expectations of decline,” and the reason for rising prices is “expectations of rise.” In 2021, USDT’s market cap was half of today’s, yet it still supported an alt season bull run. This cycle is no different. As long as there is “expectation,” alts may not surge 100x, but surpassing the 2021 highs by 50%–100% is entirely feasible.
Moreover, there’s a complex variable: the Trump factor. Trump’s election was the primary driver behind BTC’s surge starting in November. (In my view, he influenced the magnitude, not the direction.)
Trump officially takes office on January 20. His impact on markets is multifaceted. First, his economic policies may involve direct stimulus or rate cuts benefiting equities and the broader economy. Second, his policies could reignite inflation—partly why Powell tempered 2025 expectations in December, factoring in Trump’s potential impact. Third, his direct support for crypto could trigger immediate pumps in specific coins—not via indirect channels like “macro → liquidity → X → Y → Z → price up,” but through straightforward, forceful rallies.
Thus, the Trump narrative is vast and complex, difficult to summarize briefly. Once the macro trend is confirmed, coin selection should emphasize Trump-related assets (they tend to rise more and fall less).
For now, there’s little we can do except observe developments and respond promptly to emerging variables. If everything aligns, perhaps “the big one is really here.” If not, we may return to the grinding 2024-style April–August range. Whatever unfolds, prepare mentally so you can respond correctly when the moment arrives—that is the path forward.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@biupa
