Revisiting $GRASS: Low Circulating Supply and Steady Unlocks May Support Short-Term Strength
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Revisiting $GRASS: Low Circulating Supply and Steady Unlocks May Support Short-Term Strength
A quick analysis of the circulating supply of $GRASS and other thoughts.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Res
Translation: TechFlow
Currently, $GRASS has a fully diluted market cap of $275 million, with an actual circulating supply of 37 million tokens in the market—equivalent to $60 million (at $1.60 per token). This is important because cryptocurrencies are highly speculative assets driven by momentum and often constrained by limited liquidity. The total unlocked supply stands at 250 million tokens, including 150 million held by the DAO/foundation and 100 million allocated for airdrops.
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Regarding the 150 million tokens held by the DAO/Foundation
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Of these, 28 million tokens have been staked at an annualized yield of 52%. Rewards come from the treasury, meaning 15 million tokens are reserved for staking incentives. This represents the expected sell-side pressure over the first year, as no additional tokens will unlock before October 2025 and locked tokens cannot generate rewards. At the current price of $1.60, monthly sell pressure amounts to approximately $2 million. This pressure is low, predictable, and fixed—likely to be well-received by the market. Demand, however, remains unknown.
2. Regarding the 100 million tokens allocated for airdrops
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65 million have already been claimed. Out of the 78 million distributed, 13 million remain unclaimed, with another 22 million unaccounted for (total not in circulation: 35 million). It's unclear why only 78 million were distributed when the tokenomics specify 100 million.
Thus, out of the total 250 million tokens, subtracting the following:
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35 million unclaimed or undistributed tokens
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15 million tokens reserved for incentives (i.e., first-year sell pressure)
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28 million staked tokens
We arrive at an actual circulating supply of 172 million tokens, valued at $275 million at $1.60 each.
If we further exclude an additional 135 million tokens controlled by the DAO/foundation for growth purposes (*), the effective circulating supply drops to 37 million tokens, representing a market cap of $60 million at $1.60 per token.
(*) I consider this a reasonable assumption in the early stage, as the use of these tokens may be negligible initially. However, their impact will likely grow over time as various growth initiatives are implemented.
While investors typically make decisions based on market cap, in crypto, understanding the details of circulating supply is far more important. In this market, liquidity often matters more than valuation, and everything is driven by momentum. Therefore, the current situation is:
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Actual circulating supply is only 9–10%
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No new token emissions or unlocks will shock the market
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Circulating supply remains constant over the next year, with only 1.25 million tokens released monthly as rewards—an known and manageable sell pressure that greatly reduces uncertainty
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Tokens appreciate in value as demand increases (via buybacks)—while this may seem modest, it’s positive news for market sentiment
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As a novel concept in crypto, it naturally attracts speculative interest—even if hard to quantify, this is still an advantage
Under these conditions, short-term price appreciation is highly likely. Hence, it’s no surprise that GRASS tripled in price within a week and may continue to perform well. While fundamentals do matter in the long run—and I’m actively trying to understand them better to make informed decisions—for now, I’m still watching market momentum.
Some "fundamental" strengths I’ve observed include:
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Capable of processing 80 TB of data—nearly twice daily crawls of GPT-3 / 3.5 (which required 45 TB for training)
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Has crawled nearly 1 billion minutes of multimodal data (including video and images), for which companies have paid significant fees
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2.5 million daily active users, achieving rapid growth within just one year
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2 million nodes deployed
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Widely used by AI labs and attracting attention from Fortune 500 companies
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Plans to integrate into mobile phones, with partnerships involving Xbox and Roku TV
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The CEO claims demand for the network has reached nine-figure levels
While I haven’t verified every detail, it’s clear this is a compelling narrative drawing significant attention. GRASS possesses solid data infrastructure, a strong team, promising partnerships, and potential for massive scale. Although we must remain cautious about DAU metrics in crypto, its growth rate is indeed impressive. With 2 million nodes already in place, if they’re genuinely being used by major corporations, this project could have real potential.
On the other hand, I’ve noticed some bearish comparisons—for example, $ALAR (Alarum Technologies). It’s listed on Nasdaq, operates more nodes, generates over $8 million in quarterly revenue, and has an $88 million market cap. By the way, its stock chart looks eerily similar to those meme coins launched by questionable teams at market peaks—worth a look. That said, I don’t know much about the company, so feel free to compare for yourself.
Additionally, scaling to tens of millions of nodes while maintaining decentralization will be a huge challenge—but our goal here isn't building, it's trading the token.
On the bullish side, GRASS benefits from decentralization, web3 speculation, low float and tight liquidity, social dynamics amplified by market makers and key influencers, along with incentive mechanisms, positive feedback loops, and reflexivity driving growth.
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@resdegen
