Fed meeting minutes reveal分歧 on rate cuts, BTC falls below $61,000
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Fed meeting minutes reveal分歧 on rate cuts, BTC falls below $61,000
The "vast majority" of officials supported a larger interest rate cut, but a few called for a 25-basis-point reduction.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy BitpushNews
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting revealed differing views among policymakers on the recent rate cut size, with U.S. stocks rising Wednesday while the crypto market declined.
The minutes showed that a "large majority" of officials supported a more aggressive rate cut, though a minority advocated for a 25 basis point reduction, arguing the approved 50 basis point cut was too steep.
The document stated: "A few participants expressed a preference to lower the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting, and others indicated they could have supported such an outcome."
Following the release, market watchers reduced their expectations for a November rate cut. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November stands at 70.4%, while the chance of no rate cut has risen to 29.6%.
Data from Bei2 shows BTC traded mostly below $62,000 on the day. After midday, bears intensified selling pressure, pushing prices below $61,000. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $60,736, down 2.25% over 24 hours.
Most altcoins declined. Among the top 200 tokens by market cap, Baby Doge Coin (BabyDoge) led gains with a 26% rise; Chiliz (CHZ) gained 15.5%; SuperVerse increased 5.2%; FTX Token (FTT) saw the largest drop, falling 9.6%; cat in a dogs world (MEW) dropped 8.8%; Mog Coin (MOG) fell 8.7%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.13 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at 56.7%.
In U.S. equities, markets opened higher and maintained gains through close. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.71%, 1.03%, and 0.60%, respectively.
Analyst: If BTC Falls Below $61,600, STHs May Face Panic Selling
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci emphasized that if BTC drops below $61,600, short-term holders (STHs) may experience panic selling.
Bitcoin investors are categorized into short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). Long-term holders are addresses that have held BTC for 155 days or longer, while short-term holders are those who have held for less than that period.
This suggests current price action is largely driven by short-term holders. Kesmeci explained that the average cost bases for Bitcoin’s short-term holders are currently $61,633 (for those holding 1–3 months) and $64,459 (for those holding 3–6 months). As shown in the chart, price is currently compressed between these levels, awaiting a directional breakout. The analyst noted that a break above $64,500 could give bulls momentum.
On the other hand, if the 1–3 month holder average cost level of $61,600 breaks, investor patience may be severely tested, potentially triggering panic selling by short-term holders at a loss.
Three Factors That Could Drive Bitcoin Past $80,000
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently wrote that Bitcoin “needs three things” to reach a new high—$80,000.
Hougan highlighted the U.S. election as the first factor: "The U.S. election is significant for crypto. Most people see it as binary: Trump = good, Harris = bad. Undoubtedly, Republican victory bodes well for crypto given strong and growing party support for the industry. But I think the Democratic side is more nuanced."
The second factor is the economy. Hougan explained: "The primary reason people are drawn to Bitcoin is simple: you can’t trust governments to manage money. This idea birthed Bitcoin in 2008 and remains a powerful driver today... Current expectations are for the Fed to cut rates by another 50 basis points by year-end, and for China to roll out additional fiscal stimulus. If both happen, I suspect we’ll see a rebound in Q4. If not, disappointment could weigh on markets."
The third factor Hougan cited is the absence of major negative surprises in crypto.
He elaborated: "To achieve a rally to $80,000, what we need most is a period free of major shocks—no large-scale hacks, no sweeping new lawsuits, no sudden influx of previously locked tokens. Unfortunately, crypto history is littered with such events. In recent quarters, the release of previously locked Bitcoin from failed exchange Mt. Gox and government coffers has kept the market range-bound."
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