Arthur Hayes: What Would the Best Crypto Bill Look Like, and How to Get It Passed Through the U.S. Election?
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Arthur Hayes: What Would the Best Crypto Bill Look Like, and How to Get It Passed Through the U.S. Election?
Is there a way to turn the roughly 50 million American adults who own cryptocurrency into a single voting bloc to ensure the passage of favorable crypto legislation before elections?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Arthur Hayes, Founder of BitMEX
Translation: 0xjs, Jinse Finance
Last summer, I went to Ibiza (note from translator: located in the Balearic Islands of the Mediterranean Sea), the doosh-doosh holy land of House music. It was a professional mission composed of me and three friends. The organizer of this trip was a male classmate from my university days who had lived in London after graduation. Born for European summers, he orchestrated an excellent getaway.
On our first night, he sent us an invitation to attend a private gathering at a villa on the island. Imagine guests from Chiltern being transported to the Balearics. Two of my friends live in London and knew people at the party; my former Hong Kong roommate and I didn’t know anyone. We made our way to the bar and started drinking.
A few hours later, we found ourselves in a hot, narrow room where Carlita was spinning fire. As we danced to the beat, Leonardo DiCaprio walked in escorted by a long-legged girl. We witnessed something hilariously awkward. Leo’s date was aggressively pitching why he should take her home. We overheard fragments of their conversation—very entertaining. I don’t know if she succeeded in bedding a movie star, but she certainly gave it her all.
This story connects to crypto because a potential emperor of Pax Americana—Trump—has suddenly taken interest in cryptocurrency. A few thousand voters will decide the U.S. presidential election results in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Appealing to the young, politically active, and newly wealthy crypto crowd might be what pushes Trump over the edge. Thus, Trump is boosting his reputation among crypto supporters by saying all the right things. One example is his announcement that he would pardon Ross Ulbricht, the former operator of the Silk Road marketplace. Ross is currently serving a life sentence for running an online market where Bitcoin was the primary payment method.
Unfortunately, this newfound political attention has already caught the eyes of many in our industry. Political honeys are now trying to bring us home, rather than the other way around. These feelings are misleading. The playboy of crypto isn't a movie star—it's the fool standing at the edge of the party.
To my frustration, many so-called experts in crypto who should know better are now blindly hosting flashy fundraising events for Trump’s campaign. They mistakenly believe Trump is sincere and that as long as they donate enough money, the "crypto chokehold" will vanish. This is pure nonsense. Trump is a shrewd politician. He’ll say anything to anyone who can help him win re-election. Once in office, anything related to crypto will quickly fade into distant memory.
How can American pro-crypto voters leverage the Democratic and Republican parties’ desperate need for swing votes? Is there a way to turn roughly 50 million American adults who hold crypto into a single voting bloc? Is there a strategy that requires no campaign donations but still ensures positive crypto legislation is enacted before the election? Of course, there is. But it won’t be easy.
Before introducing my strategic thinking, I want readers to first analyze a prophetic speech by Malcolm X. I’ll use this speech as a backdrop to illustrate how oppressed American crypto holders/voters can achieve their goals within a divided political landscape.
After listening to Brother Malcolm, I’d like to discuss a simple piece of legislation that crypto voters should demand their elected representatives enact into law before Election Day. It’s frustrating that crypto celebrities go all out supporting politicians who claim to back crypto, only for those politicians to build regulatory moats around Coinbase and BlackRock. If voters are to become pro-crypto voters, the legislation passed in their name should actually benefit the entire industry and bring crypto jobs and opportunities under Pax Americana. Corporate fraud shouldn’t be on the menu.
Finally, I’ll dive into the numbers and show mathematically how a single pro-crypto voter could determine which party controls the House, the Senate, and most importantly, the presidency.
Before I begin, let me explain why “separation of coin and state” should be every voter’s top priority, regardless of who gets elected. When a nation and its agencies must regularly tax citizens, they tend to be cautious about overreaching, lest they get voted out. Many of the country’s problems stem from an overly active government using inflation taxes to fund unnecessary activities. For instance, if governments funded military spending through direct taxation, current global defense expenditure levels would be unsustainable—and inevitably lead to conflict. What do you prefer: free healthcare or more AK-47s? Free college education or another F-16 fleet? Affordable public transit or another nuclear missile-equipped submarine? If taxpayers decided, different kinds of public goods would be produced, improving quality of life for many.
I will refer to “Joe Biden” as the presumptive Democratic candidate. However, after his poor debate performance, I don’t think he’ll ultimately be the Democratic nominee. He is Joe Biden, but rather than speculate who might replace him, I’ll assume he remains the candidate for simplicity.
The Ballot or the Bullet
Let’s travel back to 1960s America. Niggers were getting restless, demanding political change. Malcolm X was one such radical leader pushing to alter the status quo. On April 3, 1964, he delivered a speech titled “The Ballot or the Bullet” in Cleveland, Ohio. The theme was how the Black community could leverage their power as a voting bloc to determine who becomes the next president and what they should receive in return for their loyalty. Incumbent President Lyndon Johnson (Democrat) was competing against Barry Goldwater (Republican). Johnson won re-election.
I will excerpt passages relevant to this discussion. To clarify, I do not endorse everything Malcolm X said or did. Nevertheless, his observations remain sharp and highly relevant for disenfranchised minorities—like crypto holders—who wish to gain political leverage under a simple-majority system.
Malcolm first explained why Blacks should set aside differences and unite toward common political goals:
“Though I’m still a Muslim, I’m not here tonight to discuss my religion. I’m not here to try to change your religion. I’m not here to argue or discuss anything that we differ about, because now is the time for us to erase the differences and realize that we have more in common than we have differences. We have a common problem, a problem that will make you catch hell whether you’re a Baptist, Methodist, Muslim, or nationalist. Whether you’re educated or illiterate, whether you live on Park Avenue or in a ghetto, you’ll catch hell just like I do. We’re all in the same boat, and headed for the same hell created by the same man. His name is Whitey. All of us have suffered political oppression at the hands of the white man, economic exploitation, and social degradation.”
In crypto, it doesn’t matter whether you’re a maximalist for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, etc. What matters is that we stop focusing on these divisions—whether you’re a shareholder in a centralized exchange like Coinbase or just a regular holder. The “politician,” or in this case, the state, harbors resentment toward any disciple of Satoshi.
What similarities exist between the 1964 and 2024 elections?
“1964 might go down in history as the year when America exploded. The most explosive year. Why? Because it’s also a political year. In this year, all the white politicians will come back to so-called Negro neighborhoods to beg you and me for some votes. In this year, all the white political con men will come back into our communities with false promises, trickery, betrayal, and lies—promises they never intend to keep—to raise our hopes just to dash them again.”
2024 is a pivotal election year for Pax Americana. Pax Americana stands at a crossroads. Should it accept a multipolar world order, stand firm, and fight challengers economically and militarily? The next emperor will have significant influence over how America navigates this shifting world order. Given that a few thousand votes will decide the outcome in a handful of states, Trump and the Republicans are now making nice about crypto. Like Malcolm in 1964, I doubt Trump’s sincerity. He cares about winning. To get your vote, he’ll say or do anything. If Biden and Democrats support crypto, Trump will oppose it. That’s just good politics.
Malcolm then discussed how a disenfranchised minority could wield immense political power.
“These 22 million victims are awakening. Their eyes are opening. They’re beginning to see things they once overlooked. They’re becoming politically mature. They’re realizing there’s a new political trend sweeping from coast to coast. When they see this trend, they may notice elections are incredibly close—so close that recounts are necessary. Massachusetts had to recount votes to determine its governor because the race was too tight. Same in Rhode Island, Minnesota, and many other parts of America. It happened during Kennedy vs. Nixon. So what does this mean? It means that when whites are evenly matched, the Black vote decides who enters the White House—and who ends up in the cold storage [or, if you're Trump or a Trump supporter, prison].”
According to Coinbase, 50 million Americans (20% of the population) own cryptocurrency. If this group votes together, they could easily decide which clown ascends the throne. The deep division between Democrats and Republicans creates a unique opportunity for major political concessions. Crucially, placing party allegiance above Satoshi leads only to defeat.
Malcolm went on to harshly criticize tokenism. We should heed this warning. American crypto holders should not settle for meaningless symbolic gestures from Biden or Trump administrations. The only acceptable outcome is pro-crypto legislation signed into law.
“They got all the Black votes, and after getting them, Blacks gained nothing. All they did in Washington was give good jobs to big-name Blacks. Those big-name Blacks didn’t need those jobs—they already had them. It’s a sham, a trick, a betrayal, window dressing.”
I strongly recommend readers read the full speech carefully. Just remember the racial, economic, and political context in which Malcolm X spoke. I use his rhetoric about Black versus White as a backdrop to make my point: if tens of millions of American crypto holders choose to act, they can wrest favorable policies from the government, because politicians desperately crave re-election.
For those who think achieving substantial progress immediately takes too long or is too hard, remember that U.S. politicians are currently engaging in moral gymnastics to continue funding Israel’s war against Hamas. Bombastic Bibi, the “Bedouin butcher” Netanyahu, is carrying out a genocide against unarmed Palestinian civilians—an atrocity the world witnesses in real time—because he wants to eradicate the ideology of Hamas and its thousands of fighters, enemies of the Israeli state. Regardless of personal opinions, not a single American politician dares stand up for human lives, because doing so risks angering the powerful pro-Israel lobby, which, backed by overwhelming financial resources, can run negative ads one after another, reducing a politician’s chances of re-election. Every politician’s top goal is re-election, and this self-preservation instinct is even stronger in the empire’s capital, where long congressional or senatorial tenures bring massive wealth.
Take House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as an example. Using ChatGPT, I learned the following—this tool accessed her officially disclosed net worth. In 1987, when she entered Congress, Pelosi reported an estimated net worth of $3.64 million. By 2023, her disclosed net worth reached an estimated upper limit of $97.7 million—an almost 27-fold increase. ChatGPT estimates that over her 37-year tenure, her salary as a congresswoman totaled $5.7 million. Most of her wealth came from savvy investments in stocks and real estate. Given that members of the House and Senate are allowed insider trading, is it any surprise her trading skills rival Steve Cohen’s?
Pelosi embodies the political dream of American rulers. As a civil servant, she amassed generational wealth. Is it surprising that politicians will say anything to please you if it helps them stay in power?
Since Malcolm X implied that crypto holders, as a political minority in a divided election environment, possess power—what exactly should we protest for?
What Is Money?
Money can be dirty fiat, heavy gold, or radiant Bitcoin—but what is its essence? Money’s purpose is to transfer energy across time and space via physical or digital communication. Lynn Alden’s ledger theory of money offers a great framework for understanding what money truly is.
Understanding blockchain from first principles brings this concept to life. A blockchain is simply a chain of encrypted, hashed messages linked sequentially and stored in a publicly readable ledger. With Bitcoin, we can read and write on this public ledger. Bitcoin is digital speech.
Here’s another example—a concept many readers understand perhaps too well. TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, etc., are services that allow you to read and write to centralized databases containing messages from you and other users. These messages take the form of videos or text content. These platforms support digital speech.
In most liberal democracies, governments treat information posted and consumed on social media platforms as protected speech. Therefore, users can freely express opinions without government interference—which is indeed the case. Moreover, companies providing these services aren’t held liable for speech on their platforms.
Consider Facebook during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The Democratic camp claimed Putin, the evil Russian dictator, used Facebook to influence people to vote for Donald Trump, thereby undermining “democracy,” while viewing Trump as a petty tyrant. Hence, Facebook enabled treason, and its CEO should face criminal liability for foreign actions on its platform. Yet, nothing happened—due to free speech laws, Facebook and its executives faced no punishment.
If the internet and its content constitute protected speech, why are Bitcoin and other blockchain-based cryptocurrencies or tokens treated differently? Both use speech to deliver services. The fact that Bitcoin serves as a monetary instrument doesn’t strip it of constitutional protection against government interference.
This interpretation applies to a document written over two centuries ago, when the steam engine was cutting-edge technology. Yet, in America, this is how the Constitution is analyzed. The Second Amendment grants you the right to bear arms. In the 18th century, the most advanced weapon was the flintlock rifle. Today, gun lobbies and many Supreme Court rulings interpret this as the right to carry automatic assault rifles. Absurdity is the price of freedom.
Let me propose a simple statement that should realign crypto policy with free speech principles:
“Cryptocurrencies and tokens residing on or supported by blockchains are forms of protected speech. All laws protecting free speech apply equally to crypto users and intermediaries. Any law or regulation restricting an individual’s or legally established entity’s ability to hold or transfer cryptocurrency is invalid.”
That’s all we need to fully clarify the current state of crypto regulation. Let’s explore the practical implications if such a law passes.
Crypto Clarity
If this simple bill becomes law, it would profoundly impact how regulators treat crypto. Questions about which agency has jurisdiction over crypto-related activities would abound. The only way to clearly define boundaries is through legal precedents established in adversarial court cases. As it should be. Judges appointed to interpret laws passed by elected representatives will determine the scope of free speech rights enjoyed by crypto.
Meanwhile, Pax Americana would become the most favorable place for “doing crypto.” Doing crypto could mean launching your own exchange, creating new DeFi protocols, building decentralized infrastructure, or pooling funds for investment or trading. It means innovation without permission. Diehard fans of Pax Americana are nostalgic for such innovation. Did John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, or Henry Ford ever beg government officials to reform the oil, steel, or automotive industries? Of course not. They simply built industries and industrial processes that transformed agrarian America into an empire.
For politicians voting to enable this, it means earning credit for creating high-paying jobs. It means leveraging privileged committee positions to front-run shares of publicly listed crypto exchanges and miners—just like Congresswoman Pelosi enriching herself. If they’re going to engage in insider trading, at least let them do so while crypto businesses thrive.
This sounds like happy days for both crypto holders and politicians. Would anyone object to these developments?
Opposition—Lousy TradFi
If crypto is treated as protected speech while fiat currency isn’t, TradFi will grow uneasy. Their lobbyists will fiercely oppose any such crypto free-speech legislation. So I invite them to join our journey.
Decades of financial regulations haven’t protected consumers—they merely politically absolve bureaucrats from repeatedly bailing out the financial sector. After each crisis, politicians feel compelled to appear active, imposing more absurd rules and regulations on traditional financial institutions.
Fiat currencies (like dollar bills) and commodity money (like gold) should also be considered speech and thus protected. As previously stated, these are all forms of money conveying who holds how much energy across time and space. All forms of money deserve a level, fair playing field.
Let’s slightly revise the proposed bill:
“All forms of money—including government-issued currency, precious metals like gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies and tokens residing on or powered by blockchains—are forms of protected speech. All laws protecting free speech apply to crypto users and intermediaries. Any law or regulation restricting an individual’s or legally established entity’s ability to hold or transfer cryptocurrency is invalid.”
One issue remains. Since most financial regulations would become obsolete, fractional-reserve banks and other highly leveraged traditional financial intermediaries might engage in riskier activities. All government bailout programs for financial institutions should be eliminated to reduce public cost.
Let’s revise the bill again:
“All forms of money—including government-issued currency, precious metals like gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies and tokens residing on or powered by blockchains—are forms of protected speech. All laws protecting free speech apply to crypto users and intermediaries. Any law or regulation restricting an individual’s or legally established entity’s ability to hold or transfer cryptocurrency is invalid.
No public funds shall be used in any manner or form to bail out any financial institution. No public financial institution (comprehensive list of all relevant entities) shall receive any federal funding.”
Governments shouldn’t guarantee bank deposits. Instead, they should require banks to place fiat currency on public blockchains for triple-entry accounting. If all fiat circulated on public cryptographic ledgers, potential depositors could verify any financial institution’s health in real time.
Central banks and any other public financial institutions (e.g., housing mortgage policy banks like Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, Freddie Mac) must not receive funds from central government if they go bankrupt. Central banks can print any money they want, but if losses wipe out all equity, they go bankrupt. This would erode public trust in fiat—but the goal is ensuring all financial institutions, public or private, are accountable and cannot access public funds when in trouble.
Opposition—Crypto Crony Capitalism
Another opposition comes from within. Many U.S. companies and individuals with large private crypto interests want to exploit this moment to push legislation that builds regulatory moats around their businesses. If these Uncle Toms are caught engaging in such deals, their customers should publicly denounce them. No one should support any crypto business that uses political processes to enrich itself at the expense of collective financial freedom.
Any Rules?
Of course. If you steal or commit fraud, you break the law. If you post false statements online intending to deceive others for profit, you’ll be punished. Crypto is no different. The industry needs no new laws to punish behaviors already illegal.
Mission Complete
The best timing for concrete results is before the November election. My proposed bill is only 113 words long. Its brevity is intentional. It’s easy to understand; anyone can read it in minutes. This means every elected representative can digest it immediately, and it’s less likely to be hijacked by high-paid lobbyists.
The bill needs supporters in both the House and Senate to introduce it for debate and eventual voting. Crypto lobbying groups can select several politicians in each chamber fighting tough re-election battles. The message: sponsor this bill, and crypto voters in your district will support you.
Once introduced, pressure both Democrats and Republicans to support it. Same carrot-and-stick approach: support the bill, and crypto voters in your district will vote for you; oppose it, and they’ll vote for your opponent.
Finally, assuming the bill passes both chambers, Biden must sign it into law. American voters aren’t limited to one party when voting for congressmen, senators, and president. Thus, voters can elect a Republican congressman or senator from their district who supports the bill, while still voting for Biden as president, despite him being a Democrat.
This is far more effective than hoping Trump keeps his promises on various pro-crypto policy proposals, because this bill could become law within weeks. See how fast lawmakers move when approving more weapons for Ukraine and Israel. When motivated by self-interest—like their defense industry stock portfolios—things happen at superluminal speed.
After the election, pro-crypto voters lose all leverage. The next election is two years away, primarily involving two-year-term congressmen. Neither Biden nor Trump will spend the same political capital supporting crypto policies, as it won’t directly affect their re-election or most elected officials within their respective parties.
Remember, after the election, war drums will intensify. Iran and Russia aren’t yet direct targets of U.S. and NATO attacks solely because Biden doesn’t want oil prices rising before election day. Trump assassinated Iran’s top IRGC general Qasem Soleimani during his first term. He wouldn’t hesitate to bomb Iran at Israel’s request. All this suggests that once bombs start flying, crypto freedom will quickly be forgotten.
Election Math
Dreams are beautiful—but can this become reality? Using ChatGPT, I built a model analyzing a unified pro-crypto voting bloc’s ability to decide outcomes in Congress, Senate, and presidential elections.
Assumptions:
1. The biggest assumption: every one of the 50 million crypto-owning adults is registered to vote and acts as a unified pro-crypto voting bloc.
2. Among crypto-owning voters, the split between Democrats and Republicans is 50/50.
3. Voter turnout in 2024 is 69.40%, matching 2020. I use 2020 since it was the last presidential election year.
4. Since Coinbase doesn’t provide detailed state-level data on crypto holders, I proportionally allocate voters by state based on 2020 presidential election registered voter counts.
5. Finally, I assume voters previously voted along party lines. This means I only care about crossover voters in 2024. For example, if Democrats defeated Republicans by 1,000 votes in a 2022 House race, to flip the result in 2024, I only count registered crypto-owning Democrats voting Republican.
Strategy
Democrats control the presidency and Senate. They clearly want to maintain control of the presidency at all costs, giving them immense power over U.S. government institutions. The message to party leadership is simple: pass this pro-crypto legislation, or the pro-crypto lobby will hand all three branches to Republicans. If Democrats comply, the pro-crypto lobby can deliver all three branches to Democrats.
Since Democrats don’t control the House, four vulnerable Republican congressmen must be threatened with removal if they don’t cross party lines to support the bill.
Mathematically, is this feasible? Yes. Let’s look at the numbers.
House Races
ChatGPT provided me with 2022 House election results. I tallied vote counts for winners and runners-up in each district, along with their respective parties.
Republicans won 48 seats by margins small enough that if every Republican crypto holder in those races crossed over, Democrats could flip them—all shifting the House to Democratic control.
Senate Races
Senators serve six-year terms, unlike House members. So I asked ChatGPT for 2018 Senate election results. Those elected in 2018 are up for re-election this year.
Republicans hold 9 seats that could flip to Democrats if every Republican crypto holder in those races crosses over. This would expand Democrats’ current Senate majority.
Presidential Race
ChatGPT provided 2020 state-level election results. Each state has a certain number of electoral votes; a candidate needs 270 to win the presidency.
If Republican crypto holders in a few key states all cross over, 115 electoral votes shift to the Democratic candidate—ensuring Biden’s victory.
If you’re interested in my model and supporting data, contact me—I’m happy to share.
The Hard Work
The hard work isn’t raising funds from wealthy American crypto holders. Not a single cent should go to political campaigns. The hard work is convincing the vast majority of crypto holders to become a unified voting bloc and actually vote. This is where the millions raised by pro-crypto lobbying groups should be spent.
If Brian Armstrong genuinely wants to advocate for pro-crypto legislation—as many glowing articles about his political activism suggest—he should collect digital signatures from Coinbase’s U.S. users supporting the proposed bill. That way, politicians know crypto holders are serious and want organized change.
What I’ve described isn’t easy—and more importantly, it has nothing to do with campaign donation amounts. It’s about motivating crypto holders to hold their elected representatives accountable for meaningful change. Doing this hard thing means no politician aiming for a cushy Washington job can ignore crypto, knowing crypto holders will show up and vote with their wallets.
Nonpartisan
Some readers may think this article secretly poisons pro-crypto Trump supporters. I belong to no party and don’t care who wins the U.S. presidential election. The ruling party has both means and motive to retain power at all costs. If the ruling party does shady things to block the opposition, that’s even truer. That’s why cooperation with Democrats is more effective. If circumstances were reversed, I’d advocate supporting Republicans. The point is: in a deeply polarized two-party system, partisan bias undermines your single-issue policy goals.
Copy-Paste
If American crypto voters succeed in passing a simple yet profound pro-crypto law, it will attract massive publicity. It will politically activate crypto holders in other jurisdictions, where small, vocal, focused voting blocs can achieve legislative victories.
See how fast Hong Kong and London exchanges launched or announced spot Bitcoin ETFs after U.S. approval. Nation-state competition is our friend. Suppose someone seriously tries to seize this historically unique moment to push transformative, simple, effective pro-crypto legislation in America. In that case, non-Americans should contribute to this cause.
Helping means shaming individuals and companies proposing crony-capitalist crypto legislation. Helping means analyzing and providing feedback on serious proposals. Helping means demanding that those claiming to support crypto in U.S. politics reject empty platitudes from re-election-seeking politicians and instead insist on immediate, concrete action before voting. Finally, if your country is a representative democracy with highly polarized parties and no overwhelming majority, helping means organizing similar efforts locally.
Ideas Matter
Over a year ago, I wrote about creating synthetic dollars using long Bitcoin and short perpetual swap positions. Ethena took inspiration from that article, added their twist, and built the fastest-growing stablecoin ever. They did the hard work—it wasn’t easy. They succeeded so spectacularly that my inbox is flooded with founders pitching the next “Ethena killer.”
I don’t consider the ideas presented here truly original. But I hope that by publishing this, many in the industry will read it and prompt motivated, savvy politicians to act immediately. Don’t waste this opportunity. Because if they do, the honeys at the party will visit another man. By November 6, loyal politicians will once again find themselves trapped, watching the world pass them by.
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Arthur Hayes
