Bitget Research: BTC contract funding rate turns negative, market liquidity is extremely poor with risk of sharp decline
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Bitget Research: BTC contract funding rate turns negative, market liquidity is extremely poor with risk of sharp decline
In the past 24 hours, several new trending cryptocurrencies and topics have emerged in the market, which could very likely represent the next wealth-building opportunities.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget Research
Summary
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen an overall decline with significant pullbacks in altcoins. BTC futures funding rates turned negative, indicating poor market liquidity and weak wealth effects. Specifically:
- The sectors showing relatively strong wealth creation potential are: TON ecosystem, AI sector
- User's most-searched tokens & topics: CARV, ZKsync, BGB, Velodrome
- Potential airdrop opportunities: Magic Eden Wallet, RedStone
Data collection time: June 18, 2024, 04:00 (UTC+0)
I. Market Environment
Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market declined broadly, with sharp corrections in altcoins. Both BTC and ETH faced downward pressure, with BTC briefly dipping to $65,500 before rebounding slightly. Contract data shows BTC funding rates turning negative, signaling extremely poor liquidity and suggesting continued weakness ahead. Recently, token launches from ZK and LayerZero have increased demand for stablecoins, directly contributing to tight market liquidity.
From a broader financial perspective, the U.S. Nasdaq Index reached new highs, led by heavyweight tech stocks like Microsoft and Apple. However, this wealth effect has not spilled over into European equities or the crypto market—in fact, it appears to be "draining" capital from them. Going forward, it will be important to monitor the correlation between Nasdaq and BTC. If this correlation turns positive while Nasdaq begins to fall, it could deliver a major blow to the crypto market.
II. Wealth-Generating Sectors
1) Sector Movement: TON Ecosystem (TON)
Main reasons:
- Sustained capital inflows: After Pantera invested directly in the TON ecosystem, TON’s price remained in an uptrend with continuous capital inflow;
- Strong performance of ecosystem projects: NOT, a gaming project within the TON ecosystem, has recently performed well, drawing market attention to the broader TON ecosystem.
Price movement: TON rose over 8.5% in the past 7 days, outperforming the broader market;
Factors affecting future outlook:
- Future trading activity: Currently, one of Ton’s biggest weaknesses compared to other public chains is its relatively low number of active traders and significantly lower trading volume. If TON can launch a popular meme coin that drives user engagement, both TON’s price and liquidity could see further upside.
- Execution of Pantera’s support for the Ton ecosystem: Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, announced on social media that Pantera made its largest-ever investment in Telegram’s TON blockchain project, significantly boosting interest. If follow-up funding and product rollouts materialize promptly, the Ton ecosystem could accelerate toward greater maturity.
2) Sector to Watch: AI Sector
Main reasons:
- Binance recently announced support for merging FET, AGIX, and OCEAN into ASI, sparking discussions across Europe and North America with high community interest;
- Arweave AO announced the launch of AO token minting—holders of AR will receive AO. The distribution is fair and focuses on data-layer infrastructure.
Specific token list:
- TAO: Bittensor is an open-source protocol supporting decentralized machine learning networks. Machine learning models collaboratively train and are rewarded in TAO based on the informational value they contribute;
- NEAR: Numerous AI projects within the NEAR ecosystem are currently in development or fundraising stages, positioning NEAR as a potential future AI hub;
- ASI: The merged token of FET, AGIX, and OCEAN—expected to exhibit high volatility post-merger, presenting speculative opportunities;
- AR: Arweave’s new token AO is即将 launched, backed by solid technical fundamentals and operating in a promising sector.
III. User Search Trends
1) Popular Dapp
CARV:
CARV is a game-focused ID infrastructure aiming to build user-owned gaming identities that enable achievement tracking, friend discovery, direct monetization, and portability across platforms. Yesterday, the dApp recorded over 610,000 unique active wallets. The project has been highly active recently: On April 26, CARV announced a $10 million Series A funding round; on May 31, Animoca Brands announced a strategic investment in CARV and became a node operator.
2) Twitter
ZKsync (ZK):
ZKsync opened airdrop claims yesterday and listed its token on major exchanges. The price failed to meet expectations, stabilizing around $2.5 initially and later falling to $2 alongside broader market declines. At the current price of ZK = $0.21, ZKsync’s fully diluted valuation stands at $440 million, compared to Starknet’s $740 million.
Bitget (BGB):
Recently, Bitget launched a high-yield financial product campaign. In the current bearish market environment, offering high-yield stablecoin products has earned recognition from users and the community. The promotion has been widely shared in social groups. Bitget currently offers annualized yields above 10% on stablecoin products—worth monitoring.
3) Google Search & Regional Trends
Globally:
Velodrome (VELO):
A U.S. House of Representatives member, Michael A. Collins, disclosed a transaction involving $1,001–$15,000 worth of Velodrome assets on May 17, 2024. The filing sparked widespread discussion upon release.
By region:
(1) In Asia, besides interest in the ZK airdrop, rumors about FTX completing debt repayments and potentially relaunching have driven LUNC and FTX onto trending lists in Malaysia and Singapore, respectively. In South Korea, “a16z crypto” was the top trending term yesterday.
(2) Search trends in Europe and North America differ sharply from Asia: Velodrome appeared on trending lists in the U.S., Canada, Poland, and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, DePIN and AI remain the two most followed themes in Western markets, with FET and Grass consistently appearing on popularity charts across multiple Western countries.
IV. Potential Airdrop Opportunities
Magic Eden Wallet
Magic Eden is a leading NFT marketplace backed by heavyweight investors including Coinbase, Paradigm, and Solana. The team previously announced on Twitter that its token claim feature within the wallet will launch later this quarter.
Magic Eden Wallet is their mobile app. Besides earning "Diamonds" points through NFT trading, Magic Eden has recently begun releasing test links via its official Twitter account for users to try the app—this may also serve as a pathway to qualify for a potential airdrop.
How to participate:
(1) Follow the Magic Eden Wallet Twitter account (https://x.com/MagicEdenWallet) and set notifications;
(2) When test invitation links are posted, click quickly to access and test the app—each round offers only a few thousand spots.
RedStone
RedStone is a cross-chain oracle project, serving as a modular oracle for LSTs and LRTs, providing frequent, reliable, and diversified data feeds to dApps and smart contracts across multiple L1s and L2s. The market expects the project to launch its token in the second half of 2024.
In 2022, RedStone raised $7 million in seed funding led by Lemniscap, with participation from Coinbase Ventures, Blockchain Capital, Distributed Global, Lattice, Arweave, Bering Waters, Maven11, and SevenX Ventures. In 2023, the project received angel investments from the founder of Aave and a co-founder of Polygon.
How to participate:
(1) Participate in on-chain campaigns or Galxe quests hosted by RedStone and its partners to earn RSG points.
(2) Create content and join designated activities on the RedStone Discord server (e.g., weekly best content or hall of fame) to earn RSG points as a contributor.
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