Bitcoin is about to hit a new high—why haven't I made any money?
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Bitcoin is about to hit a new high—why haven't I made any money?
Will there be another山寨 season?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Kaori
Today, Bitcoin surged past $68,686, just $314 short of its all-time high. At the same time, NFTs and inscriptions within the Bitcoin ecosystem have also seen significant gains.
Bitcoin is rising, but the community doesn’t seem particularly happy—many don’t actually hold Bitcoin, but instead are stuck with altcoins that aren't appreciating and in some cases are even declining.
Most People Have Missed Out
Wall Street capital continues to pour into Bitcoin, yet most retail investors no longer have sufficient funds to re-enter the Bitcoin market.
Earlier this year, people were deploying capital into inscriptions across Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems, still eagerly anticipating a "third spring" for inscriptions. With the growing popularity of staking, much of retail’s holdings have been passively locked in projects like EigenLayer, Blast, and Merlin. That said, without these locking mechanisms, many might not have held onto their Ethereum or Bitcoin at all.
Another group sold their positions after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, believing the news was already priced in and therefore not a future catalyst, choosing instead to position for the next bullish event. Perhaps we’ve all underestimated the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Faced with Bitcoin’s explosive rally since Lunar New Year, many didn’t even have time to react as prices suddenly jumped 10%. Others, constrained by past bull market experiences, developed “height anxiety” and are waiting for a major pullback.
There’s no doubt this is a bull market—Bitcoin’s price is the clearest proof. Yet this bull run feels different from previous ones. Given Bitcoin’s one-sided momentum, the market is divided on whether an altcoin season will follow.
Why Is Only Bitcoin Rising?
On February 29, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day trading volume of $7.69 billion, a new record since launch, followed by several days maintaining volumes between $4–5 billion. This strong inflow over less than two weeks has pushed Bitcoin close to its all-time high.
As prices continue climbing, many are searching for reasons—the clearest answer being supply-demand imbalance. Demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded newly mined Bitcoin supply from miners.
According to Alternative.me data, today’s Fear & Greed Index for crypto reached 90 (up from 82 yesterday), the first time since February 2021, indicating extreme market greed. Sentiment is hot, yet in stark contrast, altcoin prices remain sluggish.
The anxiety lies in Bitcoin’s relentless rise while altcoin prices remain flat or even decline. Many believe capital flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs won’t rotate into existing altcoins, but rather will be cashed out into USD—suggesting this cycle may not bring a wild altcoin season.
In an interview with BlockBeats, Matrixport analyst Markus suggested the current market may only be a Bitcoin bull run, excluding altcoins. However, he noted that ETF investors don’t necessarily share this view: “This bull market is very different. The last one was DeFi Summer, where altcoins were the stars. This time, attention is largely centered on Bitcoin.”
In the previous cycle, the crypto bull market took off when Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped below 48%, leading to a frenzy in altcoins. Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 50.19%. Markus pointed out that Bitcoin’s market dominance is around 52%, and believes altcoins won’t rebound meaningfully until Bitcoin’s dominance falls below 50%.
An altcoin season is defined as at least 75% of the top 50 tokens outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period. According to BlockchainCenter, the current altcoin season index is 73—close, but not yet meeting the 75 threshold.
Altcoin Season Index; Source: BlockchainCenter
While many believe this cycle may only deliver a Bitcoin bull market without a full-blown altcoin season, there are still promising developments within the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems worth watching.
Will There Be an Altcoin Season?
Despite the SEC postponing its decision on BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF application last night, Ethereum still broke above $3,700. According to 8marketcap, Ethereum’s market cap reached $449 billion, surpassing companies like Mastercard and ExxonMobil to rank 23rd globally by asset value.
Ethereum’s biggest narrative this year—restaking—is still only halfway through. On February 22, a16z invested $100 million into EigenLayer, a liquid restaking protocol, while leading restaking projects such as ether.fi and Renzo have also secured funding. On the infrastructure front, beyond restaking, modular blockchains remain attractive to top-tier VCs. Founders Fund and Dragonfly led a $27 million seed round for Polygon’s modular blockchain Avail, while Jump Capital led a $15 million seed round for modular blockchain Lava Network.
In past cycles, fundraising activity closely followed Bitcoin’s price movements, but this time the correlation is absent. According to crypto researcher Ignas, projects typically raise capital during bear markets and choose strategic moments to announce funding. Despite the current market heat, publicized funding amounts remain relatively low—indicating better timing ahead for announcements and suggesting stronger confidence in the long-term outlook.
Solana hasn’t performed poorly during this Bitcoin-dominated rally. Beyond Ethereum, market sentiment remains optimistic about Solana’s future trajectory.
In 2024, Firedancer—the second validator client for Solana developed by Jump Crypto—will launch. Designed to handle more transactions per second, with a goal of up to one million TPS, it could make Solana faster than traditional payment systems like Visa. Additionally, AI and DePIN projects on Solana are emerging as competitive sectors. Fueled by incentive programs, a wave of new Solana-based projects are expected to launch and issue tokens soon.
At the time of writing, Ethereum-linked tokens such as ENS, OP, and STRK have broken out to new highs, further boosting optimism. Bitcoin has not yet surpassed its all-time high—so the best may still be ahead.
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