Bitcoin surged to $53,000 before sharply pulling back, analysts say one final pre-halving retracement remains
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Bitcoin surged to $53,000 before sharply pulling back, analysts say one final pre-halving retracement remains
Repeated oscillations are part of Bitcoin's halving cycle "five-stage" pattern.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Mary Liu, TechFlow
On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged and then retreated again, dropping from an intraday high of $53,019 to a low of $50,812—a decline of up to 4%. Prices later recovered slightly, trading at $52,330 at the time of writing, down 0.15% over the past 24 hours. Over the past week, Bitcoin's price has largely fluctuated between $51,000 and $52,500.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, followed a similar trajectory, falling back to $2,900 after briefly surpassing $3,000 for the first time since April 2022.
What’s Behind the Bitcoin Price Pullback?
Cryptocurrency trader and analyst Rekt Capital shared the following chart in an X post, suggesting that Bitcoin has one final "pre-halving retrace" left before resuming its upward trend.
Independent market analyst Sjuul noted that Bitcoin’s funding rate is high, warning traders, “A full adjustment is expected. In my view, this is the dip we’ve all been waiting for to buy.”
Market intelligence firm Santiment pointed out that significant moves by “mid-sized investors” often signal ideal opportunities for profit-taking and buying the dip. “Over the past two weeks, stablecoin holders with balances between $10,000 and $100,000 have added $44.3 million in USDT,” indicating they may be waiting for a pullback and preparing to buy on weakness.
One analyst highlighted that $53,000 represents a major resistance level for Bitcoin, and rejection at this point could indicate further consolidation below this level. This aligns with the weekly Ichimoku Cloud chart, where this price zone marks a key resistance area on long-term charts that previously capped gains in the second half of 2021.
More Sideways Movement Ahead?
Traders and market analysts believe that repeated volatility is part of the five-stage Bitcoin halving cycle, and that Bitcoin may undergo a pre-halving correction before entering the widely anticipated parabolic rise following the halving event.
After prices rose more than 30% following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs at the end of January, the failed attempt to break above $53,000 may signal further consolidation within the current range. Vetle Lunde, Senior Analyst at K33 Research, said: “The current price level is a significant technical level for BTC, aligning both with the peak of the ‘El Salvador’ rally in September 2021 and with the resistance level just before the December 4 crash that same year.”
Analysts at cryptocurrency analysis firm Swissblock noted that Bitcoin’s stalled momentum could foreshadow further pullbacks and potential buying opportunities.
Cryptocurrency technical analyst CryptoCon pointed out that the $53,000 zone also marks the previous market cycle top within the weekly Ichimoku Cloud—an indicator of momentum and trend—which acted as major resistance for BTC prices in 2016 and 2019. Breakouts in early 2017 and late 2020 cleared the way for new rallies leading to all-time highs.
According to a chart posted by CryptoCon on X, in the prior two bull markets, Bitcoin first returned to similar levels before entering prolonged consolidation phases. The actual price breakouts occurred later in the Bitcoin market cycle, following the quadrennial Bitcoin halving events.
CryptoCon wrote in the post, “The Ichimoku Cloud marked mid-cycle tops, rejection points, and long sideways periods twice. Now breaking above it would come almost a full year earlier than usual.”
Rising Within Long-Term Ranges
Data from IntoTheBlock shows that Bitcoin traders are watching the next phase of the current rebound. The IOMAP model reveals a very strong support zone between $9,300 and $9,600, where nearly 898,000 holders previously purchased 732,000 BTC. Additionally, around one million addresses hold long positions near $9,800, which could act as resistance toward Bitcoin reaching $10,000 because earlier buyers at those prices may aim to break even.
Independent analyst Ali stated that bulls are now preparing for a new “battle” to defend the support zone between $52,000 and $51,700, and whether the closing price holds above or falls below this range “will determine the direction of BTC’s next move.”
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