Podcast Notes | Interview with Ansem: Bullish on Bonk's Development, Predicts Cosmos Ecosystem Will Surpass Ethereum
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Podcast Notes | Interview with Ansem: Bullish on Bonk's Development, Predicts Cosmos Ecosystem Will Surpass Ethereum
Cryptocurrency growth in the Cosmos ecosystem will surpass that of the Ethereum ecosystem.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled & Translated by: TechFlow
In the LightSpeed podcast episode aired on January 2, 2024, Garrett and Mert welcomed Joe McCann and Ansem from Asymmetric to discuss Solana's resilience, cryptocurrency market trends, memecoins, and strategic investment outlook for 2024.
Background
Garrett (Host) – Co-host of Lightspeed
Mert (Host) – CEO of Helius Labs, co-host of Lightspeed
Ansem (Guest) – Trader
Joe McCann (Guest) – Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric
Solana’s Resilience and Growth: Insights and Predictions
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Joe said the Bonk team is a stealth player within the Solana ecosystem, with Telegram bot trading and protocol revenue surpassing other major platforms, demonstrating exceptional performance.
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Ansem shared his optimistic view of the current state of the crypto market, particularly regarding Solana.
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Garrett discussed predictions for various ecosystems and applications in 2024, urging reflection on last year’s highlights and potential changes that could influence the coming year.
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Joe emphasized Solana's price resilience during market turmoil and the vindication brought by the hard work of the Solana community. He pointed to significant growth in Q4 and the potential for continued success in 2024.
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Ansem said that despite initial uncertainty about timing, he was pleased with Solana’s rebound. He praised the quality of the Solana team and developer community, expressed optimism for its continued development, and challenged the notion that only Ethereum and its L2 solutions are viable.
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Garrett questioned the potential impact of an increasing number of tokens on Solana’s value and ecosystem, wondering whether greater investment options might dilute attention and capital directed toward $SOL itself.
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Ansem said that overall ecosystem growth can accommodate a surge in new tokens and applications without necessarily diminishing Solana’s value or appeal. He highlighted the potential for these DeFi applications to grow significantly in scale and valuation alongside Solana.
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Joe noted that Multicoin has unique insights into the start of a new bull market tied to new token issuance mechanisms, discussing airdrops—especially how Solana (saga phone) evolved into a distribution method. He described the resulting increase in utility and adoption for Solana-based projects.
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The hosts expressed curiosity about the unique perspective of being both builders and traders, noting the rapid shifts in market sentiment. They asked how new builders entering the space should navigate these emotional fluctuations.
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Ansem acknowledged the challenges faced by builders in crypto, where external noise and volatile emotions can affect morale. He advised creators to focus on their convictions and, where possible, delegate social media engagement to others to avoid negative sentiment.
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Joe added that traditionally, private funding raised by startups isn’t publicly traded, whereas the token prices of crypto projects directly impact project success. He advised new founders to prepare for the emotional toll of price volatility and stressed the importance of distancing oneself from social media for mental well-being.
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Joe shared his experience as a trader, emphasizing that the best trades occur in volatile markets. He recommended establishing a rule of thumb for when to take profits or buy more. He stressed that going against the crowd in extreme market conditions can be highly profitable.
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The hosts discussed market unpredictability and mentioned Garrett’s surprise that a Ponzi scheme called “Banana” raised more funds in one hour than his company did. He referenced a detailed rebuttal by Jason from “All In” on Solana use cases and expressed shock at market volatility.
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Ansem attributed Degen scores to market behavior, comparing the downfall of the 2021 BSC market to current crypto trends, highlighting the speculative nature of investments during bull runs. He mentioned protocols like SafeMoon, emphasizing the prevalence of gambling-like activities and viewing retail participation intensity as an indicator of market sentiment.
The Future of $BONK: Crypto Experts Discuss Memecoins, Market Trends, and Investment Strategies
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Garrett asked Joe for his stance on the Solana-based memecoin $BONK, comparing it to Shiba Inu on Ethereum, and pondered future interactions between the two. He questioned whether the memecoin trading frenzy would persist on Solana or shift to other ecosystems.
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Joe stood by his argument on meme coins, describing Bonk as a cultural coin with a compelling story and strong community impact. He compared iterations of meme coins, positioning Bonk as an evolved version with a solid team and substantial protocol revenue, suggesting it could potentially match or surpass Shiba Inu in market performance.
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Ansem said Bonk’s trading was straightforward because it launched during a low point in the ecosystem and received backing from influential figures within the ecosystem. He explained that on Solana, Bonk offers a unique purchase option for those seeking exposure to Solana.
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Ansem pointed out the strong pattern-matching nature of crypto, using the market caps of Dogecoin and Shiba Inu as examples to illustrate how Bonk is seen as Solana’s Dogecoin. He distinguished chain-native mascots like Bonk from pure meme coins, noting that Bonk contributes value to Solana’s ecosystem.
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Ansem emphasized that Bonk earns through trading fees and actively develops other products within the ecosystem. He discussed the tangible value of internet virality and its impact on crypto prices.
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Joe echoed Ansem’s views on the value of virality and internet culture in crypto. He discussed the difficulty of fundamentally investing in internet virality and suggested allocating a portion of one’s portfolio to it.
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Garrett agreed with the idea of investing in memes and affirmed the capability of the Bonk team, distinguishing them from typical supporters of meme coins.
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Mert asked traders and price-focused individuals how they view the diversity of crypto ecosystems—including L1s like Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana—and expressed curiosity about their bets for next year.
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Joe pointed to his experience across multiple cycles, observing that new tokens typically outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum. He discussed investment opportunities across various L1 ecosystems and expressed bullishness on L2s and their price trajectories.
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Joe explained the frustration among institutional investors and traders with Ethereum’s underperformance and their search for the next big investment. He predicted high market risk influenced by global liquidity, shadow monetary systems, and election-year dynamics, advising focus on several key investment areas.
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Considering Ethereum’s transition into a rollup settlement layer, Ansem discussed his core thesis that Solana is undervalued relative to Ethereum. He questioned how markets would repricing assets within Ethereum’s modular landscape and mentioned competition from teams like Celestia.
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Ansem said Solana’s functionality justifies a market cap closer to Ethereum’s and predicted retail users would favor Solana, emphasizing the need to identify undervalued players in under-discussed modular narratives. He mentioned interest in alternative VM upgrades, Cosmos ecosystem enhancements, and the potential of Monad if it can compete with Solana on speed and cost.
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He mentioned core holdings in Solana, Coinbase, and Parallel, highlighting Coinbase’s potential amid regulatory clarity and Parallel’s gaming prospects, while still exploring AI and defensive investments.
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Garrett mentioned that some of his research colleagues had been discussing Near’s focus on artificial intelligence and its potential growth in the DA layer, and asked Ansem and Joe about their views on investing in Near.
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Ansem said he holds some Near positions and mentioned Near’s CEO, who co-authored an early AI paper.
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Joe acknowledged that Near’s CEO Ilia is intelligent but disagreed with Near’s scaling solution. He emphasized that narratives like AI can greatly influence market prices and discussed the difference between fundamental venture investing and narrative-driven crypto trading.
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Garrett observed the trend of alternative Layer 1 blockchains such as Aptos and Sui, speculating that application-specific blockchains and frameworks may emerge as counterpoints to existing platforms like Solana.
The Future of Blockchain: Dymension, DA Layers, and 2024 Predictions
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Ansem discussed his interest in Dymension, a modular settlement layer in the Cosmos ecosystem, noting its upcoming mainnet launch. He explained that unlike the Ethereum ecosystem, Dymension differentiates itself by supporting application-specific rollups secured under its settlement layer. Ansem emphasized Dymension’s ease of use for developers, allowing them to build apps using the Dymension SDK without securing their own validator set.
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Ansem highlighted Dymension’s potential trading performance and compared it to Celestia’s successful launch. He said Dymension’s low profile and lack of competition in the rollup settlement space make it a promising venture.
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Garrett addressed DA layers, questioning their technological and value accrual aspects and whether they are easily replaceable.
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Joe offered his perspective, focusing on the product engineering and software side of DA layers. Using Apple as an example of high switching costs, he discussed the importance of “stickiness” and switching barriers. Joe said that if switching costs for DA layers like Celestia are extremely low, they become commoditized, potentially leading to declining value over time.
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Ansem reflected on the commoditization of DA layers and the potential for settlement layers to become more important value drivers. He emphasized the importance of ecosystem support, ease of deployment, and interoperability in developers’ choice of DA layers. Ansem expressed uncertainty about how value will accumulate across these layers, especially with the shift toward rollup transactions and implications for trading activity and value distribution.
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Mert discussed the necessity of understanding technical aspects when pricing crypto assets, acknowledging this could be challenging for some. Ansem agreed.
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Ansem made three predictions: Cryptocurrencies within the Cosmos ecosystem will grow faster than those in the Ethereum ecosystem; two chains will surpass Ethereum in daily active DEX trading volume; and a breakthrough game will emerge in crypto that attracts both crypto and Web2 users.
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Garrett asked about the outlook for Ethereum DeFi in 2024, specifically mentioning Uniswap. Joe said he respects Uniswap’s continuous improvements but believes the concept of swapping may become outdated due to superior experiences offered by L2s and other platforms. He predicted Uniswap’s market share would decline, though he wouldn’t bet against the team overall.
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Ansem said Ethereum will remain important due to its security and predicted that TVL on Ethereum will remain resilient. He emphasized that while many Ethereum-based applications may deploy on other EVM-compatible rollups, throughput issues may persist.
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He expected Ethereum DeFi teams to migrate to platforms offering both EVM compatibility and superior performance, such as Monad, which might resolve these issues by combining Solana’s speed and cost efficiency with EVM compatibility.
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Mert asked for their most bearish trading view for next year.
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Joe explained that at Asymmetric, they don’t short tail risk but instead buy it. He discussed relative value trades and expressed skepticism about a potential revival of governance tokens from the first DeFi boom.
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Ansem said he is bearish on Polygon. He criticized Polygon’s marketing strategy, claims of Ethereum alignment, their pivot from L1 to L2, and their competition with other ZK rollup teams. Mert strongly agreed with Ansem’s view.
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Garrett suggested inviting Sandeep from Polygon for a debate and posed a question about $WIF.
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Ansem confirmed his fondness for $WIF and the rapid adoption by both traditional media and crypto platforms. He discussed its potential growth and popularity.
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Joe mentioned that $WIF is not in their fund but acknowledged the value of meme coins based on their popularity among retail investors.
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Ansem compared meme coins to viral trends on TikTok, emphasizing the potential economic gains from virality.
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