Crypto Crystal Ball 2024: Are NFTs Dead or Reborn?
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Crypto Crystal Ball 2024: Are NFTs Dead or Reborn?
Analysts predict that NFTs will see a significant rebound in 2024, but this does not mean that old projects will surge again.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsText: Decrypt
Translation: Jonathan
By all accounts, cryptocurrency stands at a crossroads. Across markets, legal and regulatory landscapes, and the Web3 startup ecosystem, industry leaders largely agree that 2024 could become one of crypto’s most pivotal years yet.
Whether these developments will ultimately propel the industry out of winter and to new heights—or jeopardize it—remains another question.
But dear reader, do not panic—although nothing about the future is certain, especially in crypto—Decrypt has spoken with analysts across finance, policy, and the NFT space to peek behind the curtain.
After exploring the implications of spot Bitcoin ETFs, how Bitcoin and TradFi might finally merge, and when U.S. regulation may clarify, we turn to whether NFTs will rebound in 2024.
During the prolonged crypto bear market, few asset classes have fared worse than NFTs. Even with recent slight upticks in trading volume, the sector remains down 93% from its frenzied highs in early 2022.
A sign of the decline: In many circles, the term “NFT” itself has become almost taboo. If the crypto market does eventually rebound, will NFTs ride that wave upward?
Pedro Herrera, research lead at DappRadar, believes NFTs will see a major resurgence in 2024—but he isn’t talking about the profile picture (PFP) market.
“The collectibles we became accustomed to in 2021, like Bored Apes and CryptoPunks, have slowed down,”
Herrera told Decrypt. “People are beginning to understand the real concept behind NFTs—proving ownership, authenticity, and so on.”
Herrera believes the technology underpinning NFTs has finally matured to the point where it can begin fulfilling its full potential—one that extends far beyond swapping cartoon animal JPEGs.
He points to developments in areas like real-world asset tokenization (“Imagine your mortgage as an NFT!”), gaming, and the metaverse—sectors that experienced a hype crash last year but which Herrera expects to fully rebound as high-quality AR and VR hardware, such as the upcoming Apple Vision Pro, becomes more widespread.
“We’re starting to see many use cases go well beyond simple collectibles,” Herrera said. “I believe this trend will remain strong throughout 2024.”
Analysts are quick to clarify this doesn’t mean all PFPs are dead. A handful of blue-chip NFT collections—such as Pudgy Penguins, Bored Ape Yacht Club, and CryptoPunks—have successfully leveraged first-mover advantage or savvy strategies to evolve past collectibles into valuable IP brands with presence in both digital and physical realms.
Herrera believes these few series should now be able to grow and develop further as the NFT industry matures. But as the NFT space emerges from crypto winter into its next phase, the vast majority of NFT collections may miss the boat entirely.
“Unfortunately, 90% to 95% of the collections we saw during the NFT bull market won’t come back,” he said.
[Disclaimer] The market involves risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions expressed herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.
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