2024 Crypto Narrative Predictions: Bullish on Solana and Ethereum Ecosystems, Bearish on RWA and NFT Trading
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2024 Crypto Narrative Predictions: Bullish on Solana and Ethereum Ecosystems, Bearish on RWA and NFT Trading
After the airdrops from Pyth and Jito, Solana's ecosystem has experienced explosive growth, with Jupiter on the horizon.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: ADAM
Translated by: TechFlow
Bullish Narratives
Solana Continues to Rally
Solana has emerged as a winner early in the bull market. Despite FTX holding billions of dollars worth of $SOL, and Galaxy Digital being tasked with liquidating these assets through markets and OTC sales, Solana not only survived but thrived—bolstered by significant price appreciation, an epic short squeeze, and fervent community support. Entering 2024, enthusiasm for $SOL will grow even stronger. I’ve learned a lot over the past few months; I wrote a brief recap here.
I remember how Ethereum airdrops exploded during DeFi Summer in 2020, creating incredible wealth effects. The same phenomenon is now unfolding on Solana. Massive airdrops from Jito and Pyth are just the beginning—with Jupiter, Tensor, and Margin.fi still to come. These protocols have proven their utility and will reward loyal users, further solidifying their positions within the ecosystem. DeFi TVL, new protocols, and user growth on Solana are all set to expand, mirroring Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem.
Firedancer, Jump’s second validator client, will enhance Solana’s security and throughput. This is a critical infrastructure milestone ahead of any potential token value accrual.
Neon EVM allows developers to deploy Solidity contracts on Solana, offering existing EVM-compatible dApps a Solana-grade user experience and significantly boosting additional TVL.
Composable is building interoperability between Cosmos, Polkadot, Solana, and Ethereum ecosystems—an exciting development that adds credibility to a blockchain-agnostic future.
Solana is a leading candidate for the next potential ETF, likely a futures ETF, which could propel it into becoming the world’s third most important blockchain.
Ethereum Makes a Comeback
Ethereum ETF
Bitcoin’s rally began in January, but accelerated after Cointelegraph tweeted (incorrectly, as it turned out) that Bitcoin ETFs were approved. BTC surged from $27,100 to its current $44,000 in about 70 days—a 62% increase. The market has begun recognizing the importance of spot ETFs for crypto capital flows. A similar pattern is expected to unfold ahead of the anticipated approval of a spot $ETH ETF around mid-2024. With ETF speculation, potential rate cuts, and bullish capital flows possibly spilling over from BTC, ETH could see sustained upward momentum for several months.
Airdrop Bonanza
The wealth effect from airdrops cannot be underestimated. We’ve recently seen explosive growth in Solana’s ecosystem following the Pyth and Jito airdrops, and Jupiter’s is imminent. Below are some major upcoming airdrops expected on Ethereum and L2s:
Maturation of the L2 Ecosystem
With Base and other rollups launching, Optimism’s ($OP) vision for the Superchain is starting to take shape. Rollup-as-a-service platforms like Conduit will enable app chains to easily launch infrastructure so teams can focus on product. There will be a battle among application-specific chains across interoperable ecosystems like Optimism, Cosmos, Dymension, and Saga—but existing liquidity and bridge infrastructure give the Superchain an early edge.
Capital-efficient L2s like Blast and Manta integrate collateral types such as stETH and yield-bearing stablecoins, generating extra yield for their ecosystems. It remains to be seen whether this will be enough to sustain growth and attract users and teams.
Eigenlayer is a fascinating blockchain and data availability layer secured by staked ETH. This restaking creates a self-sustaining yield component, driving additional demand for staked ETH and exacerbating supply shocks. It’s still early—currently the only DApps being built are those enabling liquidity for restaking—but this could mark the beginning of a revolutionary blockchain that spawns many future rollups.
Mantle is poised to become the top new L2 for attracting users, TVL, and transactions. Backed by a massive ETH treasury, they’re already using it to offer users higher ETH staking yields via $mETH. $mETH will become the most important collateral across the ecosystem and Mantle’s secret weapon. They also have substantial $MNT and stablecoin incentives to bootstrap and invest in new projects.
LayerZero
I expect LayerZero to drive a new trend of omnichain tokens. Account abstraction will allow users to hold assets and transact on their preferred L2 or L1 without constant cross-chain bridging.
Intersection of AI and Crypto
In 2024, multiple AI projects are expected to enter the top 50 by market cap. The potential for AI in crypto is enormous. At the simplest level, trading bots, automated payments, and arbitrage bots integrated with blockchains improve efficiency. Tokens enable decentralized ownership of AI tools, greatly streamlining many tedious tasks in today’s blockchain landscape. Bittensor ($TAO) is building a censorship-resistant, decentralized LLM, with an ecosystem rapidly expanding around it. Autonolas ($OLAS) is developing AI agents capable of executing on-chain and off-chain tasks using open-source LLMs. Grass.io is building a decentralized AI training data oracle by connecting global internet usage.
Cosmos Ecosystem
Despite governance chaos within ATOM, founder disputes, team fragmentation, and limited real-world utility for the Cosmos Hub, Tendermint consensus and interoperability remain excellent technologies that may yet deliver strong returns in 2024. Celestia’s data availability layer, built on Tendermint, will become key infrastructure for rollups. The $TIA token has a favorable supply schedule before year-end, and stakers may receive airdrops from any chain utilizing its DA. Dymension and Saga are building clone chains modeled after the Cosmos Hub, focusing on rollups-as-a-service. They’ll share resources, making it easier for new teams to launch application-specific chains. These tokens will launch in January 2024 and may feature attractive valuations due to minimal fundraising during the bear market. Injective, Sei, and Kujira have shown strong price performance, drawing builders to these newly prosperous chains. DYDX was the first successful app chain and remains the leading perpetual DEX. Stakers now earn USDC (real yield), rather than relying on token emissions for network security—a revolutionary shift that could set a new standard.
Bitcoin DeFi
Inscriptions, markets, and DEXs resemble early Ethereum DeFi—slow, expensive, and prone to failure. Yet the opportunity here is immense. Despite resistance from $BTC purists, the community must acknowledge that demand for Bitcoin block space must grow over time to ensure network security (miners will need to sell BTC to fund operations).
I’m watching DEXs, wallet infrastructure, stablecoins, and lending markets for simple DeFi upside. Additionally, as DeFi grows, native asset cross-chain swaps will become increasingly important. Chainflip has already launched a new, secure, and liquid DEX for BTC-ETH.
GameFi Goes Mainstream
Web3 games raised massive funding over the past 2–3 years, and I expect native crypto games to start attracting both crypto-native and mainstream users. Highly anticipated titles include Illuvium. Fans of Magic: The Gathering-style strategy games are excited about Parallel, and I’m also keeping an eye on Arbo.
In gaming, the “picks and shovels” play might involve infrastructure like ImmutableX, enabling mass NFT minting for tradable in-game items, or permissionless markets for game assets.
For those less involved in crypto gaming, guilds like Yield Guild Games and Merit Circle/Beam could become hotspots, potentially attracting major investors and advisors like Pentosh1.
Curve/Frax/Convex Ecosystem Thrives
Decentralized stablecoin yield will be a winner-takes-all game. Throughout the bear market, Frax quietly built strength. Their base pool offers high yields, they created a liquid ETH token, and they’re developing the Frax Chain. They know how to play the long game and will win big on ETH and stablecoin inflows. Convex benefits from both Frax and Curve’s success, locking vast amounts of CRV to boost LP rewards in pools.
AlladinDAO has developed innovative products like CLever and f(x) protocol, receiving strong positive feedback from stablecoin maximalists and likely attracting interest from DAOs seeking to maximize treasury returns and hedge native token risks.
Meme Coins
Meme coins have achieved true product-market fit among crypto natives and retail investors. Once seen as a sign of market tops, they’ve evolved into more sophisticated instruments with better network and mobile marketing, refined supply mechanisms, concentrated liquidity, and above all, lottery-like speculation. Small investments can turn into large gains, and holding a meme coin with conviction can pay off. Fundamental factors when choosing a meme include creativity, video content, CX team, holder count, and supply distribution.
Intent-Based DEXs: A 0-to-1 Innovation
Symm_IO has gotten off to a strong start, despite its founding team coming from the struggling Fantom ecosystem. The Deus team has formed a new protocol with backing to develop one of DeFi’s most advanced derivatives systems. Symm leverages off-chain liquidity through “hedgers,” who source quotes from centralized exchanges for traders and then hedge risk as they choose. This allows professional market makers to do what they do best, eliminating the inefficient on-chain liquidity pools seen in GMX and Uniswap v2. Traders get optimal execution (lowest fees and spreads), access to the widest range of trading pairs in DeFi, and avoid the risks of centralized exchanges (geofencing, locked funds, theft, closing profitable trades). Symm_IO is already deployed on frontends like Thena, IntentX, Pear Protocol, and Based Markets, with more platforms coming soon.
This system also applies to spot markets, improving capital efficiency through timely liquidity. Cowswap is a V1 version of intent-based exchange, offering good execution and MEV protection.
New Narratives
Each bull cycle brings surprising new narratives. This summer saw rising interest in social, and I expect DeSo or SocialFi to emerge as winners. Many teams recognize the appeal of incentivizing creators and monetizing fan access, and are investing to build better user experiences.
Bearish Narratives
RWA Narrative Slows Down
The rise of on-chain Treasury yields coincides with peak interest rates. Crypto is chasing the same yields as traditional finance investors, but I expect demand for these products to fade before gaining real traction. This is a test of the grand concept of tokenizing everything, but native stablecoin yields may soon far exceed Treasury yields. Other RWAs may prove more interesting, but progress will be slow.
Bearish on Base
Coinbase has an incredibly strong brand and is the leading centralized exchange in the West. Its massive influence and marketing engine allow it to bring retail investors into DeFi via Base. I don’t think acquiring users is Base’s challenge—it’s attracting developer teams to build on the chain. Other Layer 2s and Layer 1s offer large venture funding and potential token airdrops to incentivize developers, hiring, and growth. In a bull market, customer acquisition costs are extremely high. Without strong incentives, Base won’t win—even with the narrative of Coinbase and the Optimism Superchain. In a cyclical, speculative, reflexive market, you must strike while the iron is hot to stay relevant.
Coinbase’s relationship with government agencies is a superpower. They should leverage this—using their reputation, security, and compliance strengths—not focus solely on crypto-native developers.
NFT Volume Won’t Reach 2021 Heights
While NFTs are excellent technology with versatile applications, the last NFT boom was fueled by low interest rates. Truly valuable NFT projects can grow a project’s treasury, brand, and value (e.g., Pudgy Penguins and Yuga), but most NFT projects will fail. Creators will need to adapt strategies to stay competitive.
Limited Bitcoin ETF Flows Before Second Half of 2024
I’m not bearish on BTC spot ETF inflows (quite the opposite), but I expect a longer ramp-up period for marketing, product development, and sales. I anticipate meaningful inflows won’t begin until Q3 next year. Most retail and high-net-worth investors likely already own BTC through personal accounts or private funds.
Liquidity Pools
Idle liquidity pools are inefficient and fragment liquidity across chains and smart contracts. Market makers are becoming smarter at managing positions and spreads, and over time, payment for order flow will prevail. While overall derivatives volume grows and increases relative to centralized exchanges, GMX-style platforms will lose market share to centrally managed limit order books (e.g., dYdX, Hyperliquid, Vertex) and intent-based DEXs (e.g., Thena, IntentX, Pear Protocol, Based Markets).
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