Sleepy, founder of Xiao You Ling: Any surviving NFT legacy projects will become blue-chips in the next bull market.
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Sleepy, founder of Xiao You Ling: Any surviving NFT legacy projects will become blue-chips in the next bull market.
Memes will never disappear; they will always emerge in endless varieties.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: sleepy
It's almost year-end. I suddenly felt like capturing a snapshot of my current thoughts, to revisit next year and see how many came true—and how many went beyond my imagination.
1. Some NFT IPs will genuinely drive Mass Adoption
In my opinion, achieving mass adoption by challenging the existing financial system isn't very realistic. While we in this industry may share a decentralized ideal, and crypto has gained relative popularity in countries suffering high inflation or in cross-border trade scenarios, within our everyday environments, driving mass adoption purely through tokens isn't practical. NFT IPs, however, represent continuous content creation. To me, compelling content is a far better way to attract outsiders. Only when engaging content is combined with lowered technical barriers can we truly achieve mass adoption. The hard part isn’t teaching newcomers how to use a wallet—it’s convincing them why they should bother using one at all.
2. Surviving legacy projects will become blue chips in the next bull market
By "surviving," I don't mean judging by floor price or trading volume, but whether the team is still actively building. This message is for founders in the space: believe that effort pays off. Though we often say this industry doesn’t reward long-term thinking, the work you do won’t go unnoticed. True long-termism will eventually be rewarded.
3. PFP Collections will remain the dominant NFT format
What I mean is that most projects aiming to use NFTs for marketing will still launch avatar-style collections. When users adopt these avatars across social media platforms, they effectively turn into walking advertisements. To illustrate—perhaps imperfectly but clearly—holders’ social accounts become like FenShu Media (Focus Media) billboards spread across various platforms.
4. PFPs without an underlying product rarely survive six months
By "underlying product," I simply mean "what your project actually does." For example, Tiaohai runs events and campaigns, but their core business is selling alcohol. Projects need a solid business model from day one. There’s less and less time post-launch for new projects to figure things out. Founders can no longer wait until after the NFT sale to plan the future and integrate resources—they must front-load all of it.
5. New Meme PFPs will have even shorter lifespans
Memes will never disappear—they’ll keep coming. In 2024, the lifecycle of meme NFTs will become even shorter, though a few might generate extreme wealth effects.
6. Artists' roles in commercial NFT projects will diminish further
Top-tier flagship projects are excluded from this discussion. As AI advances, the artistic differentiation between NFT projects will be flattened. Unless an IP's design is exceptionally unique, artists may retain control in personal art projects, but in commercial ventures, they’ll increasingly become mere tools.
7. NFTs have great potential in the RWA sector
I haven’t studied RWA deeply, so some of my views may be flawed—corrections welcome. The key question for RWA is: what real-world assets are being tokenized? Personally, I’m most interested in revenue rights from physical stores. Recently, I spoke with a Web2 investor friend who’s experimenting with Drip Capital’s model for investing in brick-and-mortar shops (details omitted—feel free to look it up). I’d love to hold certain NFTs that grant me shares in the profits of real offline stores. Of course, converting between fiat and crypto remains a challenge—but I’m excited nonetheless.
8. NFT liquidity solutions will keep evolving, and existing products face disruption
I’m not a finance expert and don’t trade much, but off the top of my head: wouldn’t combining Blur and Flooring—a pairing of two NFT liquidity solutions—make more sense? Add in some creative twists. I see Blur not just as a marketplace, but as a broader liquidity solution. Founders aiming to disrupt OpenSea or Blur might want to rethink their approach entirely.
9. Fully virtual metaverses will stay低迷, but hybrid physical-digital applications show promise
Purely virtual experiences demand excellence—especially under the lofty label of “metaverse.” Anything mediocre gets criticized; most don’t even reach “mediocre.” Challenges around social dynamics, real-time rendering, and more continue piling on. From a tech standpoint, 2024 likely won’t deliver. But I’m highly optimistic about hybrid experiences. Before bringing us into their virtual worlds, let’s first bring them into ours.
10. A super NFT project spanning multiple sectors will emerge
Projects starting with an NFT IP have enormous potential—simply because IPs can adapt to any product or sector. For instance, any project—be it DeFi, RWA, GameFi, social, metaverse, or streetwear—could adopt a character like Little Ghost as its “spokesperson.” Given a committed team, NFT projects offer vast expansion opportunities, capable of branching into diverse verticals. Of course, managing such breadth simultaneously is impossible for startups. I’m merely suggesting a possibility. Founders should still stay grounded and take it one step at a time.
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