Renowned Collector Redlion's NFT Investment Principles and Market Outlook
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Renowned Collector Redlion's NFT Investment Principles and Market Outlook
Historically, it's rare for a collector's personal interest to determine the value of a collectible. Many imperial-level collectors have favored items that did not necessarily become enduring masterpieces.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights"OGtown" is a featured article column supported by the Chinese-speaking Cryptopunks community, dedicated to delivering the latest insights from global OGs to domestic readers.
Featured Guest This Issue
Redlioneye.eth: Cryptopunks OG, native crypto believer, whale collector, and founder of the first NFT newsletter redlion.news. His collection includes Punk5443\1968\6876, Art Blocks Squiggle2506\2508\2515\2520\2898\660\8977\8875\8946, and Meebits\1427\16552\12721\10133\14613\4758\13910\15904\8310\12272\5649\16175\8387.
Guests from the Chinese-Speaking Cryptopunks Community:
mzm.eth (Punks Whale): Whale collector Mao Zemin, MSER, INC founder, and founding partner of MONSTER CAPITAL. Holds 10 Cryptopunks and approximately 61 Meebits.
Noun_74 (noun74): Founder of the Chinese-speaking Cryptopunks community and the Noun Chinese ecosystem community; has incubated and mentored multiple Chinese NFT projects into global communities.
Token Yige (punk1778): Has focused on blockchain-related research since 2016. Author of China's first best-selling NFT book. Co-founder of the Chinese CryptoPunk community and founder of the Token Punk community.
88punk (punk8306): Chen Xu, founder of MetaZ—the Metaverse Think Tank—and former co-publisher of Coindesk China, a pioneer OG among Chinese Punks.
Punk9277: Founder of Kaito, ex-Citadel trader, and NFT enthusiast.
Pumpkin (punk5626): Veteran in the NFT space, also known as "La Zha," previously served as operator and advisor for multiple projects, and owns many household-name blue-chip NFTs.
Host Moonlight: Bilingual host based in the U.S. East Coast, outstanding builder at Binance Live and Huobi Live, top channel host at Binance Live’s Ultiverse, with experience organizing and hosting thousands of shows and events.
Host Moonlight: We all know that Punks belong to the collectibles category. How do you differentiate between collectibles and short-term hype projects currently trending in the market?
Redlioneye.eth: I'm now deeply involved in NFT investment education. I want to emphasize that people shouldn't feel anxious just because some popular products appear on the market and they haven’t bought them yet. Following such emotions isn't advisable. Personally, I believe we should approach this with an entrepreneurial mindset. Additionally, personal interest matters—some newcomers may especially love music or art, so they might want to collect a music NFT, for example. There's a clear distinction between collectibles like Punks and those short-lived trend projects. That's why I continue using educational opportunities to share these perspectives.
88punk (punk8306) Chen Xu: I fully agree with Redlioneye.eth. For collectors or collectible projects, one crucial point is to follow your own collecting passion. Historically, even the greatest collectors rarely determined the value of a collectible purely through personal preference—even kings couldn’t achieve that. Many kings, bishops, and emperors were avid collectors, but their favorite items didn’t always become timeless masterpieces. True value requires powerful consensus, which cannot be dictated by centralized authority. In today’s world, where no single collector holds such power, it depends even more on decentralized, organic consensus—a process that takes a very long time to form.
From another angle, while only a few projects eventually become true collectibles, most originate from initial hype. However, due to the technological foundation of NFTs, market transparency has greatly increased. Although market opacity still exists, it’s fundamentally different from the past. As regulation deepens, markets self-optimize, and technology evolves, these information gaps will shrink significantly.
Therefore, numerous hyped projects will constantly emerge before our eyes. Collectors—whether whales or small retail investors—can quickly learn about new projects and decide what aligns with their taste and investment strategy. In this context, I recognize that the market behaves very differently from traditional ones. I believe there are both healthy and unhealthy forms of FOMO. A healthy FOMO arises when high market activity makes us fear missing out on great projects—especially during bull markets. At such times, even projects with strong potential to become future collectibles can experience inflated, bubble-like valuations. Take Punks, for instance: decades from now, Punk prices will surely surpass their previous highs—around 140–150 ETH, roughly $3,000 at the time. I’m confident they’ll exceed that level.
But returning to those levels may take a long time. When we originally bought Punks, including the ETH cost at the time, the total was under $30,000—yet it surged to its prior peak in just two or three months. That kind of rapid rise is easy to miss.
So I believe market FOMO is understandable and even healthy. What’s unhealthy? When investors excessively indulge emotional impulses—chasing momentum without冷静ly assessing the relationship between value and price. That’s unhealthy FOMO. Basic FOMO is entirely normal—we shouldn’t dismiss it just because the term sounds negative. The market actually needs moderate FOMO, especially during bull runs, when innovation happens rapidly and countless new projects emerge. If we aren’t paying close attention, we risk missing early opportunities. Waiting until later means not only difficulty identifying entry points but also enduring much longer waits. So having some FOMO is healthy. But conversely, even during bull markets, we must avoid indulging in unhealthy FOMO—let alone during bear markets like today, when innovation slows and project quality weakens. Price trends often move inversely, offering more entry opportunities. Recently, for example, panic-driven liquidations have surfaced high-quality NFTs. These situations offer ample time for careful evaluation. We shouldn’t fall into another kind of panic—this is about controlling unhealthy FOMO.
For the market to filter hype-driven projects into lasting collectibles—as mentioned earlier—it absolutely doesn’t depend on individual preferences or even the strength of a few whales. It requires a long, gradual process involving broad participation from diverse collectors building consensus over time—just like how Punks evolved.
On this point, I’m highly confident in Punks. I hope everyone learns more from the full history of Punks to understand what qualities make an NFT project truly collectible-grade, and how such projects test the patience and conviction of diamond-handed collectors. Thank you.
Host Moonlight: Regarding NFT investments, what selection principles should one follow to at least preserve capital?
Redlioneye.eth: When I buy NFTs, I don’t prioritize investment returns. When I bought my Punk, it felt just like buying something I liked in daily life—I loved the design, so I bought it. At the time, Punks were extremely cheap, so I didn’t think about profit at all. I simply enjoy taking risks and participating in novel things. I encourage everyone to stay curious and open to trying new things in this space.
As for investment advice, you should at least set goals. Know which sector you're investing in, and whether the asset has liquidity. Returns vary widely across NFT sectors, so planning ahead is essential.
Today, people invest in NFTs for various reasons—some for social status, others to support communities they love. My suggestion is to buy NFTs you genuinely like, ones that hold personal meaning. Only by owning what you truly love can you hold through volatility. And if it ever skyrockets, you’ll feel immense joy—you believed in it early, and now it’s soaring.
mzm.eth (Punks Whale): Coming from traditional secondary markets, in my framework, expecting mere capital preservation in NFTs or crypto is misguided. Preservation itself is hard—there are countless uncertainties, including black swans. Before investing, you must ask: Can I afford to lose this money? If yes, then consider whether you can accept losing part or even all of it. Prepare for worst-case scenarios: 90% down, 80% down, or complete zeroing. If you can still accept that outcome, then evaluate whether the risk is worth taking, what return you seek, and whether the asset fits your criteria. That’s fundamental.
Also consider risk management logic. Even with strong mental preparation, what’s your timeframe? If the worst occurs, do you exit to cut losses? Is your thesis broken, or is it a flawed assumption? Principles matter—like knowing when to abandon ship. If the Titanic is sinking and survival is your goal, logically you jump—even if the ship still has $1 left. There’s no debate.
Most of the time, though, we can’t tell if the ship is truly sinking—it just feels like it might. That tests psychological endurance. As an old Chinese saying goes: “Before planning victory, plan for defeat.” Never start by thinking how much you’ll earn. First, determine how much you can afford to lose—without affecting your life. Of course, losing money affects mood—nobody likes it—but it shouldn’t disrupt your livelihood or other responsibilities. Only under such conditions can you become a sustainable, long-term investor.
Regarding asset selection—beyond risk control—when seeking relative stability with modest upside (“defensive counterattack,” like football coach Sacchi’s tactics), we look for assets unlikely to collapse. Assuming this logic, we’re not chasing maximum gains, but rather projects that won’t die—yet could yield solid or even massive returns if conditions align. First, identify which assets won’t die.
First, antique-class assets. In NFTs, Punks are archetypal, groundbreaking products with irreplaceable historical status. As long as we believe in the continued development of crypto, NFTs, and decentralized metaverses, Punks will persist indefinitely—regardless of project teams, leaders, or major holders. They’ll keep circulating; only prices fluctuate. Whether widely recognized or not, like oracle bones, they possess inherent historical value that cannot be replaced.
Second, artworks. Was it created by a renowned artist? Could it become iconic? Or—even if the artist is anonymous or unknown—do you see pure artistic merit, whether AI-generated or human-made? Beyond the creator, beyond the medium (NFT or physical), is the work itself beautiful—transcending conceptual trends? If so, I trust human aesthetics: as economies grow and people pursue spiritual fulfillment beyond basic needs, demand for aesthetically valuable art will inevitably rise. This implies that as long as Earth’s civilization continues, art endures—true beauty remains beautiful. Nothing can deny that. Such works won’t die—they may fluctuate in price, but their core value stands.
Beyond antiques and art, other types aim to become IPs (excluding gaming or utility-focused use cases). Everyone wants to build Disney-like IP empires in NFTs. But IP here doesn’t mean niche appeal. The entire global NFT market likely includes fewer than a million people. Within this small circle, most chose BAYC or Punks. Strip away Punk’s antique traits—historical significance, uniqueness—and purely as IP, neither Punk nor BAYC has achieved the critical mass needed for qualitative transformation. Their reach and audience remain far too limited. True phenomenon-level IPs—like Disney, Gundam, LEGO, or China’s “Haier Brothers”—span generations, reaching tens or hundreds of millions. Such IPs endure across foreseeable human history. Only then do they become unstoppable—they can’t go to zero. With real IP traffic comes endless commercial extensions, regardless of format.
Gaming or metaverse games have natural life cycles. Preserving value here is difficult. You can only profit by buying low and selling high—entering when hype begins, exiting at peak popularity. Since games decline after their prime—daily active users drop—preservation is nearly impossible.
Thus, focus on antiques, art, and genuine IPs. Currently, aside from breakout success BAYC, no other NFT qualifies as true IP—not even Punks. Punks aren’t trying to be IP; IP is merely a side effect. BAYC’s broad influence stems from influential figures going mainstream, indirectly boosting visibility. But this foundation is fragile—vulnerable to bugs, scandals, or black swans. Without qualitative change, it’s merely on a path toward IP status. Other projects claiming IP ambitions haven’t reached that stage—they’re just aspiring. Therefore, for relatively safe, defensive-counterattack NFT investments, only Punks and a few personally meaningful, artistically valuable works qualify. Of course, you need art literacy—most lack it. So what should you buy? Like me, if I don’t understand art and have poor taste, and I’m purely investing, I have no choice. I don’t trade short-term either. As a long-term secondary market trader, I had no alternative but to choose Punks. My main allocation must be in Punks because, to me, it meets the standard—it won’t die. I firmly believe crypto and the metaverse will grow hotter, so I’ve allocated a significant portion of capital to Punks. I bought near its all-time high, yet I’m calm—first, it’s within my risk tolerance; second, I believe in its future.
Additionally, I’ve allocated to Meebits, which carries risk—it hasn’t formed an IP in my view. But this is portfolio diversification: allocating discretionary NFT funds across assets. My large position is Punks, smaller positions in Meebits and others. When choosing Meebits, I didn’t know if it would pay off. But in my assessment, 60% of my NFT portfolio (Punks) won’t go to zero, while 40% might. Yet, if conditions align, Meebits could offer higher returns despite greater risk. Since I practice portfolio theory, my overall NFT exposure rests on a stable anchor—something that won’t vanish. Even if Meebits fails, holding Punks long enough ensures eventual returns. Thank you.
Redlioneye.eth: I fully agree with Zeming on Punk’s long-term value. Within NFTs, there are many types—investment goals vary. Some prefer long-term holds, others short-term trades. Short-term traders should pick projects with clear narratives, easy monitoring, and arbitrage opportunities.
Personally, I’m quite speculative—I’m an opportunistic investor. My highest return came from Squiggles. I found the concept innovative, loved the community, didn’t expect returns, held casually—and unexpectedly got rich. I was thrilled.
Same with Punks—I loved them, thought they looked cool, so I bought. I approached it speculatively, despite being poor then. But later, my belief was validated—after one or two years, something I bought cheaply took off. So I think imagination matters.
One more thing—I wrote a detailed thread on Twitter sharing experiences with art and NFTs, including lessons from wins and losses. Feel free to read it. I included my own analysis, which I think is solid. Follow my Twitter and leave comments. Thanks.
Interim Host Noun_74 (noun74): Where do you think NFTs currently stand in terms of development stage, and what trends do you foresee in the future?
Redlioneye.eth: I’m extremely optimistic about the future market—I’m an optimist’s optimist. Current declines are reasonable corrections. Things are gradually improving. Though NFT floor prices look unattractive now, these are early experiments. We’re on the verge of an NFT renaissance. Soon, world-changing NFT technologies will emerge, unlocking real utility. For example, in 2017, people bought worthless tokens—meaningless contracts. Not long after, DeFi emerged, making many instantly wealthy. I believe NFTs will soon experience a similar wave—a second spring.
Another example: someday, NFTs might replace property deeds. Renting could be managed via smart contracts, rental income automatically distributed. House ownership could be traded via NFT transfers. Of course, this is highly idealistic.
Also, NFTs as digital tickets—especially in music—could revolutionize ticketing, enabling healthy secondary markets and reducing scalping. Fans could keep album covers as NFTs—cherished keepsakes and art collections.
In summary, I believe things will get better. By 2028, we might see tenfold growth—prepare for the next major bull run. Keep your Punks.
Pumpkin (punk5626): Let me share my view. I believe NFTs are still in an early development phase. I agree with Redlioneye.eth, but I’m more pessimistic—he’s overly optimistic. NFTs aren’t yet a truly independent ecosystem; they’re more like an extension of Ethereum. Past promises of utility remain unfulfilled—mostly empty talk.
Moreover, NFT price movements are still heavily influenced by crypto markets—not independent. I’m quite pessimistic about current developments. But for the future, several paths exist. First, NFTs may integrate more Web2 elements—collaborating with streetwear brands, doing co-branded drops, merging Web2 and Web3. Recent examples include auctioning skateboard decks or the Ambush necklace—your NFT avatar wears it, and you can wear the physical version too, creating a sense of belonging.
Or future applications in the metaverse, and new artistic expression formats—many artists now sell paintings via NFTs, permanently preserving them on-chain. No more risks like a watercolor blowing away in the wind. These are more tangible, real-world uses.
Token Yige (punk1778): Where are NFTs today? I align more with Redlioneye.eth than Pumpkin’s negative outlook. I believe the NFT era has just begun. To understand our stage, we must learn from history.
Past bull markets: late 2013–2014 was cryptocurrency (Bitcoin); late 2017–2018 was smart contracts, led by Ethereum, fueling ICO mania; 2021’s bull run was driven by DeFi and NFTs together—Bitcoin’s chart shows two peaks.
Overall, I see NFTs and DeFi as fundamentally different—DeFi belongs to the FT (fungible token) domain. Thus, we can divide eras into two: first, the FT era—the age of fungible tokens. I believe its golden age has passed—from Bitcoin-led cryptocurrencies to Ethereum-led smart contract platforms. The FT era peaked. The future belongs to NFTs—the new era of non-fungible tokens.
Looking back at the FT era: Bitcoin started it, disrupting finance by reinventing money—an asset class for exchange. Ethereum expanded it, enabling infinite fungible tokens. Bitcoin made a great innovation; Ethereum advanced it further. Ethereum launched the FT era. DeFi added liquidity to Ethereum’s tokens.
Since last year, we’ve truly entered the NFT era—the age of non-fungible tokens. In the future metaverse, we’ll live in virtual worlds where everything—land, avatars, cars, gear—must be built with NFTs. NFTs will be the foundation of the metaverse, constructing all digital assets, while FTs handle financial systems.
Overall, NFTs are just beginning. Like the FT evolution, NFTs first saw PFPs—profile pictures—similar to Bitcoin. They fulfilled a basic need: digital identity in the metaverse, like Bitcoin’s role as digital cash. I believe PFPs have completed half their mission. Last cycle proved their utility as a major use case—future growth will be limited. Next or the cycle after, scalable NFTs will shine. NFTs come in two types: ones to view, and ones to use—not just club memberships, but actual building blocks of the metaverse. I strongly believe in this paradigm. Future NFTs will serve as fundamental modules within computer programs—the building blocks of digital worlds—where their true power unfolds.
So I believe NFTs won’t just be viewed—they’ll construct the metaverse. From this perspective, NFTs are in the earliest stage. When Punks reach 500 ETH, 1000 ETH, looking back, today’s volatility will seem negligible.
Punk’s value logic is simple: How big is the global collectibles market? Trillions in USD—enormous. How much will shift into digital form as digital collectibles? And what share will Punks capture? Compared to traditional collectibles, Punks are tiny today. Hence, NFTs have massive room to grow. Thank you.
Interim Host Noun_74 (noun74): Redlioneye.eth runs an excellent media outlet with in-depth reports and articles. He also created a physical magazine/book about Punks—artistic and story-based. Please introduce these two projects, Redlioneye.eth.
Redlioneye.eth: I publish a weekly mini-magazine—one page updated each week, covering historic NFT news with a unique style every week. Covers are only available during that week. Owning the magazine NFT grants free access. The reporting is neutral and unbiased. This week’s feature covers the well-known CZ vs. SBF saga—feel free to check my website. At year-end, I compile all 52 weekly covers into a complete annual edition—like an old-school almanac.
I’ve done this for two years. Recently, I launched a new PFP project—holders of the magazine NFT can claim it for free. I’ve planned many utilities. I’m actively partnering with other communities to strengthen connections. I’m proud of this project. I’m also producing a TV-style variety show, inviting Punk holders to participate—quite entertaining, similar to “Super Mastermind.” I’d love to share this project—link below. I gathered 100 Punk holders, customized their Punks—adding age, hobbies, family background, names, birth stories—then used AI to turn inputs into novels. Entirely AI-generated, based solely on contributors’ data. Each holder gets a unique character in the book. If the Chinese Punk community is interested, I can create a special edition—even a Chinese version. If interested, contact me. I’d be happy to write such a book for you.
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About the Column
"OGtown" is an official article column authorized by the Chinese-speaking Cryptopunks community. Founded in 2021, it is China’s earliest and largest private NFT community by asset holdings, with membership verified by Punk ownership. Today, the community includes over 200 Cryptopunk holders—the most concentrated gathering of Web3 influencers in the Chinese-speaking world. Members include founders, executives, representatives from Christie’s and Sotheby’s Asia/China, listed companies, leading NFT projects, exchanges, veteran blockchain media, Chinese opinion leaders, and whale NFT collectors. The community maintains strong ties with top overseas OGs. We welcome friends from all fields to connect with PunksCN to jointly advance the development of the Chinese-speaking NFT space.
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