TechFlow news, December 10 — According to Jinshi Data, recent views from Fed voting members for 2025 show that more than half are not in a hurry to cut interest rates:
Dovish
1. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman: The economy needs significant rate cuts; the Fed should move rates toward neutral levels as soon as possible. Expressed intention to shift the Fed's balance sheet more toward Treasury securities. (November 25)
2. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller: Concerned about the labor market; inflation is not a major issue. Advocates for a rate cut in December, followed by decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. (November 24)
3. New York Fed President John Williams: Current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive. Still believes there is room for the Fed to cut rates in the near term without jeopardizing its inflation target. (November 21)
4. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook: A December rate cut is possible, but will depend on information gathered in the interim, especially given delays in official data releases due to government shutdowns. (November 4)
5. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman: Has not recently stated a position on the interest rate outlook; previously leaned toward rate cuts.
Neutral
1. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: Another rate cut in December is not assured and must consider uncertainties. If no new information emerges and economic conditions remain unchanged, there would be grounds to slow the pace of rate cuts. (October 31)
2. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr: Expresses concern over inflation remaining at the 3% level. Calls for cautious monetary policy to balance risks. (November 20)
3. Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson: As interest rates approach neutral levels, policymakers need to proceed more cautiously with adjustments. Expects a slight rise in unemployment before year-end. (November 17)
4. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Uncomfortable with the idea of front-loading large rate cuts. Believes rates will decline in the medium term, but current conditions must first be navigated. (November 21)
Cautionary
1. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid: Further rate cuts could have lasting effects on inflation. The reasoning behind supporting a hold in October continues to guide my thinking until the December decision. (November 14)
2. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: Current monetary policy is closer to neutral than modestly restrictive. This implies limited room for further easing without risking excessive looseness. (November 14)
3. Boston Fed President Susan Collins: Given ongoing risks to both inflation and employment goals, there remains justification for caution regarding a December rate cut. (November 22)
