TechFlow, November 6 — Goldman Sachs noted that during the oral argument phase, several U.S. Supreme Court justices questioned Trump's use of authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, indicating a growing likelihood that the Court may rule that the government’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is unconstitutional. Prediction markets now estimate a roughly 10 percentage point decline in the probability of the tariffs being upheld by the Supreme Court. The final decision is expected between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Court rejects the legality of the tariffs, the government might require several months to refund approximately $115–145 billion in tariffs already collected. However, the government is likely to seek alternative legal grounds to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning overall trade impacts would remain limited. Any tariff reduction measures would likely apply only to smaller trading partners, with no significant changes expected for major economies such as the European Union. Nevertheless, the refund process and temporary tariff gaps could trigger short-term market volatility. (Jinshi)
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